After yesterday's storm, the global capital market suddenly shined brightly today, and most of the Asia-Pacific stock markets rose sharply, especially the Japan stock market, which rose more than 10% throughout the day. South Korean stocks and Taiwan stocks also rose sharply.
Today ushered in the feast of the Asia-Pacific market, but the trend of A-shares is not shocked. I waited to see other people's jokes, but I ended up being a joke in the eyes of others.
Maybe Big A is going his own way and letting others laugh, but for a long time, his personality that can't rise is really incomprehensible. Fortunately, today's individual stocks have risen generally, and everyone has more or less returned to different degrees.
What is unimaginable is that today's A-shares actually hit a new low, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices hit a new low again, under the trend of this new low, but no one is willing to copy the bottom, but the amount of energy has shrunk sharply, even if the tail of the country half an hour to rise, the amount of energy has not been significantly amplified, this kind of tail market sneak attack, or make people psychologically unreliable.
The external market rose sharply, and A-shares rose slightly after hitting a new low, this kind of weak rebound trend dare not say that it will fall again in the short term, but at least it is difficult to have a strong rebound.
Next, let's talk about the topics we care about from several aspects.
1. Japan led the rally, and the Asia-Pacific stock market collectively rebounded, is it an over-falling rebound or a bottoming rebound?
Compared with the strong rebound in the Asia-Pacific market, the European stock market opened in the afternoon, although it rose more and fell less, but the rebound was weak, but this is already very good, at least not as sharp as yesterday.
The reason why the Asia-Pacific stock market reacted strongly today is related to the remarks made by relevant departments about the rescue of the Nikkei and South Korean stocks after the sharp fall of Nikkei stocks yesterday, so it gave birth to the sharp fall of the Nikkei index today, and the sharp rise of Korean stocks and Taiwan stocks.
From the perspective of influence, the influence of Asia-Pacific stock markets on the European market is naturally much smaller than that of European stocks on the Asia-Pacific stock market, and the influence of European stocks on US stocks is much smaller than that of US stocks on European stocks. In the final analysis, the US stock market is the focus of the world, and only when the US stock market stabilizes can the major stock indexes of the global capital market stabilize. After three consecutive trading days of sharp declines in U.S. stocks, U.S. stock index futures showed signs of rebound today, and there is naturally a stable foundation this evening. The previous negative release of recession fears is almost over.
From my understanding, the resilience of the United States economy is very strong, and it is somewhat unrealistic to think that the United States economy is in recession based on one month's non-farm payrolls data alone. The sharp decline in non-farm payrolls in July is related to some natural factors, a recession is a medium-term process, and it is impossible to fundamentally change in just a few months, even if there is a recession, it is completely possible to hedge the downward pressure on the economy by cutting interest rates in advance.
The U.S. dollar index is slowly recovering after a sustained sharp decline. Although the myth of the continued bullish bull of the US stock market will definitely be shattered, this dismantling will be slow and will not be like the current storm.
Judging from the current opening of the European stock market, it is unlikely that the US stock market will have a retaliatory rebound in the evening, even if there is a retaliatory rebound, but it still does not dare to assert that the decline in US stocks is over and the rebound market has begun.
Because the U.S. stock market has fallen sharply recently, the continuous plunge has dealt a great blow to the confidence of the market, and the chips have loosened to a certain extent, and it is very difficult to rebuild confidence. Even if there is a strong rebound, it will have to wait for the Fed to cut interest rates.
In fact, we can see from Buffett's reduction of Apple and United States bank stocks that Buffett reduced its stock investment in the second quarter and increased its cash reserves. There is also the CEO of Nvidia who is reducing his holdings and cashing out at a high level. Nvidia is facing another series of charges. The most bullish technology giants in the market have been reduced, and these people are very sensitive, and their movements will have a great impact on the market.
The recent danger of the powder keg in the Middle East is in danger of exploding, which has brought great uncertainty to the global economy.
Judging from my relatively simple and one-sided cognition, I feel that the probability of a sharp rise in U.S. stocks after a long period of bullishness is low. However, there will not be a sustained sharp decline, and it is too early to talk about bottoming out at this position.
2. Today, after the A-share market hit a new low, can there be a continuous rebound?
If the market wants to reverse the downward trend and form a wave of rebound, it must be accompanied by the amplification of trading volume. Not to mention any continuity.
Like last Wednesday's volume rebound, it can be regarded as very strong, but there is not much reference significance in one day, and the quantity changes to quality is a process, not a day or two to complete the volume.
Last Wednesday, there was only one day of volume, and this volume came entirely from institutional funds, institutions are now the wall, buy on the same day, sell the next day, just catch up with the global stock market crash, but also accelerate the rebound market death.
Today, in the atmosphere of the sharp rise in the external market, there is also the blessing of the recent sharp rise in the exchange rate, but the market still has not come out of the decent market, which is very unsatisfactory. It can't be because today's stocks are up and down too much, it means that today's market performance is good. Today's main focus is on the theme of funds, and the trading volume we mainly observe is the confidence of the market. No matter where the flow of funds goes, there is no amount to enlarge, but the limited funds in the field are constantly shifting positions, and this kind of immeasurable, no main line, no money-making effect of the market is very likely to have a sustained rebound.
In fact, talking about the next ups and downs is completely based on guessing. How big is the probability of guessing right, we just need to deal with it, the current weakness does not need to be said, under the weak market, as long as you do not chase high under the premise of strictly controlling the position, reduce the expectation of profits, there will not be much risk.
Whether the market can really see the bottom, at least there must be a few relatively clear signals, at least the volume to rise, now there is not even the volume, the funds have not entered, who will pull up, as for the next sudden volume rise, that is not what we can expect, besides, often sudden rise is unreliable, only steady and continuous volume is the most reliable. With a weak market like this, it is unrealistic to expect a sudden reversal. Don't rush, the stock market is never short of opportunities in addition to risks. In such a weak market, what you need to do is self-protection, instead of thinking about making money every day.
Investment must be aware of the situation, you make money by the market, not by your ability, if you have the ability to work against the market, the opportunity is inexhaustible for you.
There are also people who look forward to the mysterious funds to save the market every day, deliberately attracting people's attention, you can see the effect of the four major ETFs of Guo Jia's team to protect the disk. These disk protection funds will now buy two or three hundred billion yuan, and institutional funds have been continuously net outflows, so what will the market do?
In short, with the current level of energy and the attitude of large funds, it would be good for the market to maintain a low sideways shock. Once the volatility of the overseas market intensifies, it will inevitably follow the external market to fall.
In my opinion, this time is still relatively easy to make money, the key is the rhythm, take advantage of the panic to dare to enter the market, basically will not lose, at least from the perspective of my operating rhythm, the recent perfect rhythm, of course, once do not dare to buy a heavy position, do not dare to wait for a big rise, each time can only make a little money and run. Now the market is like this, you don't want to leave after making a little money, and you can only lose a lot of money as a result. At this time and that time, now everyone is in an unstable state of mind, and they are always ready to rush. In the short term, you can only follow the trend.
3. What opportunities are worth seizing tomorrow?
From the technical side, it is not easy to grasp now, and I can only find the hot spots on the news side, but I am not hot spots, only the current stocks in my hands.
First, the "One Arrow 18 Satellites" was successfully lifted off into the regulations, and the development of commercial aerospace accelerated!
Recently, the commercial aerospace sector is one of the few sectors that have come out of continuous growth, of course, there are not many stocks involved, and there is a certain superposition with unmanned driving.
China wants to build its own "Thousand Sails Constellation", which is no less than Starlink, which is China's version of the "Starlink Plan".
Commercial aerospace has performed strongly recently, and it can be paid attention to for a long time.
The second and third departments released news, and new energy, energy storage and green power ushered in a good thing.
Today, the new energy sector represented by photovoltaic and wind power rose in the front, and the smart money entered the market in advance to rebound, for the good of new energy, now the market will not be interested in the old theme, once it rises in advance, it will be cautious after the news comes out.
Judging from the news, I am more inclined to pay attention to the commercial aerospace sector, and it is more to tap the opportunity to make up for the rise at the low level, rather than chasing the rise.
On the whole, it is meaningless to guess the rise and fall of the index every day, we just need to deal with it, small ups and downs, big falls and sharp falls to enter the market decisively, and an infinite rebound to leave the market.
Don't rely on your feelings every day to think that A-shares are low enough and it's time to rebound. For A-shares, there is no minimum, only lower. No one enters the market to buy, what to take to rise, the confidence of retail investors is given by big money, but big money smashes the market every day, constantly sending you the message of leaving, but you think every day to buy the bottom and make money. Such a clear signal, but you don't give up, you don't want to face the reality, who is the one who loses money.
Remember that you don't have strict operating standards, no matter how much you earn, you will eventually have to pay it back. Doing meaningless things over and over again.
At this time, you must not be in a hurry, you will not enter the market if you don't fall too much, and it is nothing if you miss it. If you do it wrong, it's fatal.
I'm going to talk about the operation experience, it's really endless, it's all my practical experience, so I can not suffer much loss in the current market, don't feel that I have lost miserably, just feel that the person who makes money is bragging.