The recent Viet Nam can be said to be very bad, first of all, Viet Nam's high-level changes, the newly appointed Surin, with his current strength and prestige, is not enough to fully control the situation, he is facing three major problems, internal power reorganization, personnel adjustment and economic boost. In particular, the reorganization of power and personnel arrangements between the north and the south are likely to lead to internal struggles, which will continue for quite some time, and there are still great variables here.
In terms of relations with China, Surin has shown a state of vacillation from side to side, first of all, he unilaterally submitted a submission to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf some time ago on the delimitation of the continental shelf in South and South China. Such an act naturally violates China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, violates international law such as the UN Charter and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and violates the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea signed between China and ASEAN countries, including Viet Nam.
In addition, Viet Nam has further carried out reclamation operations in the South China Sea, according to a report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a United States think tank, Viet Nam has blown and filled nearly 300 hectares of new land in 10 locations in the first half of this year, which is significantly faster than the previous reclamation rate. The total area of reclamation is close to half of that of China.
In addition, Viet Nam sent coast guard ships to the Philippines for joint training. "This is the first time that the Viet Nam Coast Guard has organized a vessel to visit the Philippines," according to information posted on the website of the Ministry of Defense of Viet Nam, and the purpose of sending the CSB 8002 to the trip is to improve the maritime law enforcement capabilities of the two countries and the coordination capabilities in rescue and fire prevention.
After Surin took office, the Viet Nam prime minister's first visit to India established an important consensus with Modi on China, focusing on the South China Sea issue and the Sino-Indian border issue. The two announced in front of the media that in the future, India and Viet Nam will cooperate closely in regional and international forums, adhere to the principles of safeguarding the safety and freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea, and peacefully settle disputes based on international law.
But no matter how Viet Nam changes, Viet Nam has no choice today, China's top scheme: the Cambodian Canal has started, and the Trans-Asian Railway has landed.
Construction of the Cambodian Canal has begun
The first is the Cambodia Canal, on August 5, Cambodia Dechong Funan Canal project officially started construction, by the Chinese enterprise to build the Dechong Funan Canal, the total length is only more than 180 kilometers, in fact, the newly excavated river section is only 7 kilometers, the rest are for river dredging and bridge and logistics center construction on both sides, is expected to be completed in 4 years, when the 3000-ton cargo ship can go directly from the port of Baima to Phnom Penh.
What kind of happy event is the construction of the Cambodian Canal for Cambodia? All of Cambodia has a day off to celebrate the opening of the canal.
Why this canal is so important, Viet Nam has a very important strategic value, that is, it sits on the mouth of the Mekong River, which is 4,909 kilometers long (the Chinese section is called the Lancang River), which is the sixth longest river in the world, the third longest river in Asia, and the longest river in Southeast Asia. It flows through China, Burma, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. In Viet Nam, it is divided into nine tributaries (called the Kowloon River in Viet Nam) and rushes into the sea. The length of the Viet Nam section is the shortest in the 6-country basin, but it is in the most downstream, connected to the sea, and the outlet to the sea is also concentrated in Viet Nam. Thus, Viet Nam became the "master" of the river. Viet Nam seized the opportunity to build a large number of port towns in the area, forming the famous Mekong Delta.
This also means that Viet Nam relies on the Mekong River estuary, which only jams the necks of the five countries of China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and incidentally jams China's neck, and Chinese goods want to go to sea through the Mekong River estuary, depending on Viet Nam's face.
To give a simple example, for example, Cambodia wants to transport a container to the sea, you have to call Viet Nam for instructions, after getting the consent and approval, the goods start to be transported, from the Mekong River in Cambodia to the Viet Nam port assuming that the freight is charged 100 US dollars first, and then 600 US dollars of cargo handling fees are charged when arriving at the Viet Nam port, and more than 200 US dollars of export customs clearance fees are required when leaving the port. For a container in Cambodia, Viet Nam received nearly 1,000 US dollars, but Viet Nam's own container only needs about 60 US dollars. As long as you want to transport goods to sea, you have to follow the "rules".
Therefore, relying on the Mekong River estuary, Viet Nam has become a small overlord of the Indochina Peninsula, and the most popular of them is Cambodia, Cambodia's foreign trade is mostly subject to Viet Nam, Cambodia's customs policy is cumbersome, border port construction is backward, and ideological and other aspects are different, have seriously affected Cambodia's export-oriented industrial development, many people will ask, why Cambodia does not consider transshipment of goods by land? Yes, this sounds like a solution, but in reality, there are two major problems with this approach. On the one hand, the capacity of land transportation is limited and relatively high compared to sea transportation. On the other hand, Cambodia's infrastructure is lagging behind and lacks an effective road and rail network, making it difficult to achieve transshipment through its seaports, even if it is intended to be transshipped through its seaports, due to the lack of infrastructure.
Once the De Chong Phu South Canal is successfully built, Cambodia will truly get rid of the dependence of inland shipping on Viet Nam, truly realize the independence and autonomy of trade, and can also avoid the risk of transit, and enhance the autonomy of national security strategy.
Not only that, but after completion, it will also open up a water transport channel connecting Laos and Cambodia, which will be more three-dimensional and diversified, and this canal will be a catalyst for the expansion of Kep Seaport, and greatly strengthen the connection between Sihanoukville, which is located 100 kilometers northwest of it, and the inland area. This will not only enhance the efficiency of Sihanoukville's trade and transportation services, but also mark a major leap forward in the region's transportation network, further consolidating its position as an important commercial and trade hub. To put it simply, the completion of the canal will also greatly promote the development of Cambodia's maritime transport.
According to Cambodian official estimates, the canal will generate US$88 million in revenue for the Cambodian government in its first year of operation, and this figure will reach US$570 million per year by 2050. When completed, the Canal will help Cambodia establish a direct sea lane, reducing Cambodia's dependence on neighboring Viet Nam for up to 70% of Cambodia's international shipping. This not only improves the efficiency of logistics, but also facilitates Cambodia's trade and investment with foreign countries, opening up new ways for its economic growth.
For China, the completion of the Dechongfu South Canal will allow China to reach the Gulf of Thailand directly through the Lancang-Mekong system, providing a direct access to the South China Sea for southwest China such as Yunnan and Tibet. In addition, Cambodia's coastal areas are only 1,000 kilometers from the Strait of Malacca, closer than China's other fulcrum in the South China Sea.
Through the canal, China will not only be able to ensure the safe passage of its merchant ships through the Strait of Malacca, but also strengthen ties with Guangdong, Hong Kong and other regions, and enhance trade with the Indochina Peninsula.
It can be said that once the construction of the Grand Canal in Cambodia is completed, then Viet Nam will no longer be able to make a windfall by virtue of the access to the sea, Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos can completely go to Cambodia's sea, why put up with the high price of your Viet Nam, it can be said that after this time, it will be difficult for Viet Nam to be the little overlord of the Indochina Peninsula, and the geography of the Indochina Peninsula will change.
The Trans-Asian Railway was launched
The other is the landing of the Pan-Asian Railway, which was originally planned to have three lines: east, west and central. Its Middle East line includes Bangkok-Phnom Penh-Ho Chi Minh City-Hanoi-Kunming; The central route includes Bangkok-Vientiane-Kunming, and the western route includes Bangkok-Yangon-Kunming.
Looking at Viet Nam, the construction of the eastern front is the least difficult. On the western front, China has the fastest access to the India Ocean and few countries. I thought that the east and west lines would develop first; Because the middle line passes through many countries, and the mountains and rivers are staggered, the terrain is too complicated, and the laying is too difficult, and it will be the most difficult and slow. But Viet Nam and Thailand have always had concerns.
The Trans-Asian Railway plans to take the Middle East route through Viet Nam, and then detour through Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia, to connect to Bangkok on the central line. But now after the construction of the China-Laos railway, Cambodia can't wait to follow up, and Cambodia no longer waits for the railways of Thailand and Viet Nam.
And China has also begun the construction of the China-Laos-Cambodia Railway, since Viet Nam is not active, Thailand is also difficult to entangle, then do not wait for them, directly extend the China-Laos Railway to Phnom Penh and Sihanoukville Port, and develop this line, through the China-Laos-Cambodia Railway, the mainland will systematically build a railway with strategic mutual trust and rich economic value for Southeast Asian countries.
Through water transport and the Trans-Asian Railway, Laos and Cambodia will have more advantages in undertaking China's industrial transfer in the future. It will also be more closely linked to China's economy.
Viet Nam has run out of options
And Viet Nam will be further isolated, if Viet Nam is friendly to China, then we can take him to develop together, if Viet Nam still wants to play tricks, then we will not share this cake with Viet Nam.
This is China's top trick, and China's move actually cuts off Viet Nam's potential for future development, and Viet Nam can only have a way out and a future if it cooperates with China.
For Viet Nam, he has no choice now, Viet Nam it is difficult to have any impact on China, but China's layout in the Indochina Peninsula will have an impact on Viet Nam, in fact, United States also see that Viet Nam has no use value, so just recently, United States countries will continue to list Viet Nam as a "non-market economy country".
In other words Viet Nam products exported to United States are likely to face anti-dumping duties imposed by United States. For Viet Nam, which is very dependent on the United States and EU markets, this can be said to be a bolt from the blue, you know, Samsung alone has invested in Viet Nam, accounting for more than 20% of Viet Nam's annual GDP. Moreover, Viet Nam is very dependent on the US and Western markets, and if the US and the West refuse to import goods from Viet Nam, then the goods produced in Viet Nam will most likely become unsalable goods, and the degree of dependence can be imagined.
This also means that United States has completely abandoned Viet Nam, and for United States, if Viet Nam has no use value, then it is the enemy, and it must be used as a thunderbolt.
And under China's conspiracy, the United States has abandoned Viet Nam, and if Viet Nam does not put away its careful thinking, then for Surin, the end may be even more tragic than Marcos Jr.
This is actually not to give up Viet Nam, but a kind of beating, but also to hope that Viet Nam can put away its careful thinking, wholeheartedly and China in-depth cooperation, when the time comes Viet Nam's dream of high-speed rail, China will definitely help Viet Nam.
And China's layout is really also knocking Thailand and Myanmar and other ASEAN countries, and cooperating with China, then just like Laos and Cambodia, everyone will share the cake together, if you secretly make a trip, then Viet Nam will be the end.