The United Kingdom website The Economist published an article on August 4 titled "How useful can Ukraine's new F-16 fighter jets do." The article begins by saying: "Too few numbers to defeat the Russia Air Force, but a strong start." This also largely sums up analysts' views on the future role of the F-16. The article mentions that by the last day of July, 10 F-16s had been installed in the Ukraine Air Force. These F-16s are already roaring through the skies of Ukraine, but they are not currently on the front line to participate in real combat - the Ukraine military takes these precious aircraft very seriously and is not willing to take rash risks.
The number of 10 F-16s is not much, and this aircraft and the Russian Su-27/35 on the opposite side are also of the same generation, and they were manufactured even much earlier than the Su-35. What exactly are these F-16s for? There are two biased arguments. One believes that the arrival of the F-16 can be called a "miracle weapon", which is enough to subvert the balance of air power in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, not only will it seize air supremacy, but it can even severely damage the ground targets of the Russian army. The other argument is that the F-16 is meaningless and will be quickly annihilated by the Russian army. Neither of these statements is comprehensive.
Let's start with the first one. The number of F-16s currently in place is too small, and even the F-35 will never be able to turn the tide on the battlefield with 10 aircraft, let alone the F-16. According to the Economist website, by the end of 2024, Ukraine will have only 20 F-16s on hand, and the remaining 60 F-16s promised by the West will gradually be in place next year or even later. From the point of view of common sense, it is simply impossible for any weapon to play a big role if it does not meet the minimum quantitative requirements. The Ukrainian army openly declares that they need at least 12 squadrons of F-16s - that is, more than 200 aircraft! The current number of arrivals has not reached even a fraction of what the Ukrainian army demanded.
At present, the F-16s of the Ukrainian army are all F-16AM types with Netherlands assistance. This model is a fully upgraded version of the earlier F-16. Although it can be equipped with the latest weapons and the on-board electronic equipment has been updated, there is still a big gap compared to the latest models used by the US military. Compared with the Russian army, the F-16AM can probably match the improved models of the Su-27 and Su-30, but in the face of the "ultimate flanker" Su-35, it is at a performance disadvantage. Moreover, the Russian army also has a dense air defense network.
But it would not be right to say that the F-16 is meaningless. The F-16 is particularly valued by the Ukrainian army, and it is piloted by the top pilots who have experienced air combat and have a lot of flight hours and actual combat experience. The arrival of the F-16 allowed the Ukrainian army to obtain a world-class advanced fighter for the first time, and its performance is much stronger than the Soviet-made aircraft inherited by the Ukrainian army from the Soviet era and have not been greatly improved for decades. This will not only greatly boost the morale of the Ukrainian army, but also drive the progress of the entire Ukraine Air Force.
The F-16's powerful electronics and the most advanced U.S.-made air-to-air missiles on board will give it strong combat capabilities. The Ukrainian army itself admits that using the F-16 to fight against the best Su-35 of the Russian army will be at a disadvantage, and the fight against anti-aircraft missiles will outweigh the losses. The biggest role of the F-16 at present is to restrain the Russian army's "killer" tactic: gliding bombs.
Since the beginning of this year, the Russian army began to use this tactic. Use Su-24, Su-34, Tu-22 and other fighter-bombers or heavy bombers to carry heavy gliding bombs, and then intensively drop them at a distance of 50-70 kilometers from the target. These bombs have become the "natural enemies" of the ground forces of the Ukrainian army, and they have also helped the Russian army to make great progress step by step. Because of the long throwing distance, the carrier aircraft can also be far away from the Ukrainian anti-aircraft fire, which is relatively safe - sometimes it can even complete the task in Russia's airspace.
And once the F-16 with AIM-120D air-to-air missiles with a range of 180 kilometers is put into the battlefield, these "flying bomb trucks" of the Russian army are no longer safe. For the Ukrainian army, the F-16 can strike the Russian bombers from a relatively safe distance from a long distance, and retreat immediately after the missiles are fired to avoid getting involved in an air battle with the Su-35. These missiles will hit the poorly maneuverable bombers hard, and even if they miss, they can force the Russian bombers to make evasive actions or drop the bombs in advance to escape, resulting in the failure of gliding bombs.
Overall, a good weapon will help your team have more tactical options and also pose a threat to the enemy's usual tactics. But to rise to the point of changing the situation of war, it is not something that a single aircraft can do, but the result of a combination of factors.