The "civil unrest" in Venezuela is actually an elaborate conspiracy. A few days ago, Maduro published a secret document signed with United States on social media, which made it clear that if Maduro agrees to the election, Biden will establish normal relations with Venezuela and lift all sanctions against Venezuela.
[Maduro unveiled secret documents signed with United States]
For Maduro, this is an extremely tempting condition: on the one hand, it is conducive to consolidating the stability of his regime. If Venezuela's economy has been in a deep recession for a long time due to sanctions and internal mismanagement, it will mean that Venezuela will have a chance for economic recovery, and once the economy improves, the voices of popular protest and discontent will naturally be weakened, and Maduro can sit more securely.
On the other hand, United States lifting sanctions on Venezuela means a certain recognition of the legitimacy of the Maduro government. This not only boosts Maduro's standing on the international stage and provides an opportunity to improve relations with the international community, but also greatly weakens the domestic opposition.
In the face of such tempting conditions, out of a little trust in United States and a little luck of his own, Maduro loosely agreed to let the opposition participate in the elections. Of course, the final election result did not disappoint Maduro, who defeated Gonzalez, the country's largest opposition, with 51.95% of the vote, and firmly established himself as president.
In Maduro's view, once United States fulfills his promise, he will soon usher in a "highlight moment", but he unexpectedly stepped into the "hole" dug by the Biden administration: immediately after the election, the Biden administration united with the European Union and the country's opposition to question the election results, and refused to recognize the fact that Maduro won, believing that Gonzalez was the ultimate winner of the election.
[Thousands of people in Venezuela took to the streets to protest election results]
Everyone should be familiar with the direction of this farce, and the same is true of the Guaidó incident six years ago, when Trump, who was the president of the United States, used the same routine to nominate the opposition figure Guaidó as the Venezuela "interim president" in an attempt to forcibly remove Maduro from power. However, this time the battle is bigger than it was six years ago.
In addition to United States, Spain, Argentina, Brazil and other countries have questioned Maduro, and Maduro has recalled ambassadors from many countries; At the same time, a number of large-scale demonstrations have broken out in Venezuela, and various violent clashes have occurred frequently, even resulting in dozens of deaths.
It should be added that China has always supported Maduro, and immediately after Maduro's victory, China sent a congratulatory message; In addition, the Russian president also congratulated Putin on him. However, the support of China and Russia will not allow the civil unrest in Venezuela to subside quickly, and if the situation is allowed to worsen, Maduro will be in a very dangerous position. At this time, the appearance of the Venezuela army played a role in turning the tide.
A few days ago, a spokesman for the Venezuela military rejected the opposition's incitement and vowed "absolute loyalty" to Maduro. This statement by the army is very important.
[Venezuela army swears absolute allegiance to Maduro]
Knowing that the Venezuela military occupies an important position in the governance and power structure of the country, their role is crucial: on the one hand, the military is able to effectively suppress internal separatism and the activities of the opposition; On the other hand, their presence also deters external interference, including military and political pressure from United States and other Western countries. In the case of Guaidó in 2019, it was the military's support that allowed Maduro to consolidate his regime.
It is worth mentioning that Maduro has begun to carry out a "counterattack", and the Venezuela prosecutor's office said that it will investigate Gonzalez and other opposition parties on charges of sedition and usurpation; And Russian warships have recently arrived in Venezuela.
Judging from this trend, although United States has the intention to repeat the Guaidó incident six years ago, there is a high probability that it will end in a hurry, first, Maduro has the army and Russian army behind him, and secondly United States he is also in the critical period of the general election, and he does not have so much energy. However, the international situation is unpredictable, and we cannot make a definitive conclusion, and we will wait and see how it will develop in the future.