01
A while ago, the unrest in Bangladesh was in a uproar, and it was widely believed that the cause of this was the unfair quota system for civil servants, which forced young students into the streets.
The Wall Street Journal, however, takes a different angle, saying that the root cause of the matter is actually the high unemployment rate that you might guess.
Looking at what the Wall Street Journal has to say, Bangladesh is already seen as a super-successful example of poverty alleviation, with an average annual economic growth rate of 6.5% over the past 10 years, and a GDP growth forecast of 5.1% in 2024.
It sounds like a boom, but the reality is skinny, with 19 million unemployed people in 2024 and a youth unemployment rate of more than 40%! For society, this is the equivalent of an "invisible bomb"!
When the unemployment rate is so high, it is rare for young people to find a job as if they were buying the first prize in the lottery.
Coupled with the civil servant quota system, which has been implemented for 43 years, it is simply adding fuel to the fire!
The students who were about to enter the society felt desperate, and their heads were hot, and the protest demonstrations broke out in full flames.
The most surprising thing is that this struggle of young people has been won!
Youth unemployment is not limited to Bangladesh, but also to neighbouring India, Pakistan and Nepal.
India job fairs are simply "overcrowded", with youth unemployment in India reaching 45.5 per cent in April, according to the United Kingdom's Financial Times.
India recruitment site
Imagine 254 million unemployed young people! With so many young people who can't find a job, do you think there aren't many of those weird and chaotic things?
Looking at other countries, the youth unemployment rate in Pakistan is about 10%, and Nepal is approaching 20%. For war-torn countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, not to mention unemployment, it is not easy to save family and life in the war.
Speaking of which, why should we be so concerned about these countries? According to Uncle Yan's analysis, these countries have a common characteristic, that is, they have large populations and high density.
For example, Bangladesh is a small country with 160 million people. When the economy grows, everyone can still share a cake, and as soon as the economy is in a depression, all the contradictions will emerge, and this spark will immediately start a prairie fire!
02
For us Chinese, of course, the most concerned is the unemployment situation in China.
According to the data,
Why is the unemployment rate so high in the country?
Uncle Yan believes that "this is inseparable from the contradiction between the demographic dividend and the market increment." ”
To put it simply, the external environment is not good, the United States is fighting a trade war, a technology war, a financial war, and the tricks are exhausted, plus the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East and Myanmar have occurred one after another, external demand has fallen, and prices have soared, all of which have made the economic situation worse.
Internally, as soon as this graduation season arrives, 11.79 million college graduates flock out, plus junior high school and high school graduates, and the army of job-seeking makes employers dazzled.
This is not counting, the last wave of post-90s college students are fully pouring into social employment, on the one hand, there is a high-yield employment demand, on the other hand, a weak market increment, and it is not surprising that the unemployment rate is high.
However, everything has a turnaround.
With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year, global liquidity has been greatly eased, the global economy has entered the recovery track, and China's economy can also take the opportunity to grow rapidly.
At that time, the market increment will increase, and there will naturally be more jobs.
03
Uncle Yan said: "Our employment pressure is actually still under control, and the problem of youth unemployment will gradually ease over time." ”
There is an interesting economic concept called the "natural rate of unemployment", which is the rate of unemployment at full employment. For example, 4%-5% in United States, 6.2% in the European Union, and about 5% in China, which is a normal level.
Although the mainland does not have such good welfare, economic growth over the years has given rise to a number of wealthy and middle-class families, whose children can live a good life on the basis of their families, so why squeeze into the job market?
In the future, the number of new graduates will decline every year, coupled with the retirement of the older generation to release jobs, our employment pressure will gradually ease. As long as the current employment policy is maintained, step by step, and time is exchanged for space, this unemployment crisis can be solved.
Therefore, the high youth unemployment rate may be a time bomb in other Asian countries, but in China, it is still manageable.
When the crisis is lifted, what should we worry more about is that there are fewer young people, and what will happen to the pension problem in the future?
In short, don't be too anxious, get through this difficulty, the light is waiting for us not far away!