On September 10, Beijing time, in the second round of Group C of the round of 18, the national football team played at home against the third-tier team Saudi Arabia. According to the analysis of the data before the game, the probability of the national football team winning is only 12.66%, the probability of drawing the opponent is 23.16%, and the probability of Saudi Arabia winning is as high as 64.17%.
The national football team and the Saudi Arabian team have played each other 6 times since 2009, and the national football team has only achieved 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, of which the only victory was in the group stage of the 2015 Asian Cup. In the preliminary round of this Asian Cup, the national football team faced Saudi Arabia with 1 draw and 1 loss, and the two teams met in the last 12 rounds, and the national football team also had 1 draw and 1 loss.
In the 3 home games of the round of 36, the national football team has a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss, in addition to beating Singapore, losing to Korea and drawing with Thailand. Saudi Arabia won 4, drew 1 and lost 1 in the round of 36, but drew 1-1 with Indonesia in the first round of the round of 18, after only beating Jordan 2-0, Pakistan 3-0 and Tajikistan 1-1 away in the previous round of 36.
According to the authoritative data analysis before the game, the probability of winning the national football team is 7.50, the draw is 4.10, and the loss is 1.48, which is converted into probability, which is 12.66% of the probability of winning, 23.16% of the probability of draw, and 64.17% of the probability of losing.
Compared with the first round against Japan, the probability of winning the national football team is less than 4%, and the probability of winning against Saudi Arabia has increased by 8 percentage points.