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The 2024 United States election is undoubtedly a showdown full of gunpowder.
Trump, who has reappeared, has had a fierce competition with the current President Joe Biden and the current Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Trump has never stopped his "White House dream", and for this "outlier" in the United States political scene, losing the 2020 election is obviously not the end.
And on August 7, according to a report by the United States Colombia Broadcasting Corporation, Biden said that if Trump loses, he has "no confidence" in the peaceful transfer of power in the coming year.
The reason is that Trump said in March that if the Republicans lost, there would be a "bloody war" for the United States.
This remark not only sparked widespread concern, but also begs a larger question:
That is, if Trump loses again, will his supporters unleash an unprecedented political upheaval?
Is the possibility of civil war in United States really so imminent?
Trump's "Revenge Campaign"
Since losing to Biden in 2020, Trump has never really "stepped down."
Although formally he is no longer the owner of the White House, he has constantly instilled a firm conviction in his supporters through a series of rallies and online platforms.
That is, the 2020 election was "stolen" by Biden, and he is the real winner.
Dubbed the "election fraud theory," this claim has never been supported by conclusive evidence, but it has become central to Trump's campaign.
It can be said that in the year 2024, Trump's campaign strategy has always revolved around the theme of "revenge".
Not only does he want to win back "his own presidency," but he also wants to prove to the world that he is the true voice of the neglected "people of United States."
To reinforce that image, Trump has played the old "United States First" slogan and continues to lash out at immigration, globalization, and liberal elites.
In the eyes of his supporters, Trump is not a failed president, but a hero deceived by "corrupt politicians and elites", a fighter against the system.
So, his campaign once again attracted a large number of fanatical followers.
Especially in the Midwest and South, where conservatives strongly support, many believe that Trump is the only leader who can save United States from "left-wing totalitarianism."
However, this polarized political environment has also made the 2024 United States presidential election more tense and dangerous.
His supporters have repeatedly and publicly stated that they will defend Trump "at all costs" if he fails again.
Under such tremendous pressure, Biden withdrew from the election on July 21, pushing Harris to the forefront.
As soon as Harris took office, she reversed the public opinion advantage that Trump had since been shot on July 13 in a matter of days.
An important reason for Harris's leadership is that her policy issues are highly consistent with current social trends in United States, especially in women's rights, minority equality, and environmental protection.
Although Trump has since made adjustments to the tough contender against Biden, he has tried to regain voter support, and narrowly surpassed Harris by one percentage point on September 3.
But in the latest poll released on September 8, Trump and Harris still have the same or equal approval ratings, so Trump is still likely to lose the election.
And because Trump obviously came with revenge ambitions this time, coupled with all the fanatical actions of his supporters, Biden also has concerns about the possibility of a "peaceful transition".
Biden has 'no confidence' in a peaceful handover
United States President Joe Biden: If Trump loses again, Trump will start a "bloody war", United States the risk of civil war will rise sharply.
Biden's concerns about a peaceful transition of power are not unfounded.
On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters launched a violent event that shocked the world – the Capitol riot.
At that time, thousands of Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol in an attempt to prevent Biden's election victory certification.
Although the riots were eventually quelled, the incident exposed the fragility of the United States political system.
It also makes people realize that Trump's political campaign has long been limited to more than rhetorical confrontation.
Behind the riots may be Trump's years of incitement to his supporters, not only refusing to acknowledge the results of the 2020 election, but also publicly calling on people to "take back the country that belongs to them."
And now, the latest polls show that many Republican voters still doubt the legitimacy of the 2020 election results.
For example, according to a 2023 Pew Research Center survey, about two-thirds of Republican voters believe there was election fraud in the 2020 presidential election.
This widespread distrust lays the groundwork for a future transfer of power.
If Trump loses again in 2024, whether his supporters will once again refuse to accept the results, which in turn will trigger greater social unrest, has become a question that Biden cannot ignore.
Against this backdrop, Biden's concerns about a peaceful transition to the future elections are completely understandable.
In addition, the Capitol riot is only the tip of the iceberg, and there is a second reason why Biden has "no confidence" in the peaceful transition.
That is, in recent years, the increase in extremist tendencies and the threat of violence among Trump supporters.
Since the 2020 election, far-right groups such as the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys have grown in influence.
They played an important role in the Capitol riots, and some members were even sentenced for participating in violent activities.
However, these groups have not gone away, but have become more staunch in their support for Trump, declaring that they will take action if Trump loses his election again.
In the context of the 2024 elections, it is clear that these far-right groups have become more active.
The United States Federal Bureau of Investigation and other law enforcement agencies have repeatedly warned that extremist groups are using social media platforms to spread violent messages and plan possible riots.
For example, at the beginning of 2024, the "Proud Boys" leaders took to social media to speak out.
If Trump loses the election, they will "defend Trump's justice" and hint at possible "necessary action"
Trump, however, has been ambiguous about these extremist groups.
Although he never openly supported violent actions, he also never explicitly condemned these groups.
On the contrary, Trump has repeatedly stated at rallies that he is the representative of the "real United States people" and that these violent groups are his supporters.
Moreover, when Trump participated in a campaign event in Ohio in March, he warned that if he failed to win the presidential election, there would be a "bloody war" in United States.
Separately, during the election debate with Biden in June, Trump was asked if he would accept any results of the presidential election.
His answer was:
"If the election results are fair and legitimate, of course I will accept it."
The implication is that if he thinks it's unfair, then he won't accept it, and maybe he and his radicals will really make a good show.
Will there really be a civil war in the United States?
So, will Biden's fears become a reality? If Trump loses the election, will it set off a storm of division in the United States? Will there really be a civil war in the United States?
In fact, this is not the first time that the "civil war" has been mentioned in United States history.
The Civil War, which broke out in 1861 over a conflict of slavery and economic interests, remains the bloodiest conflict in United States history.
Although United States today will not be plunged into full-blown civil war because of similar economic or moral problems.
But social divisions, rising extremism and political polarization have many scholars worried about whether the United States will descend into a new form of "civil war."
As political scientist Barbara · Walter points out in her book The Logic of Civil War.
The outbreak of modern civil wars often stems from extreme divisions in society and distrust of the population, the existing system.
In the current United States, issues such as race, religion, and gender identity have become the core of political debates, and the polarization of these issues often leads to violent conflicts.
Among Trump's supporters are radical right-wing militias.
Their ability to act in the Capitol riot may really throw the United States into chaos, but it should not really break out into a fierce war.
After all, it is the national army that fights the war, and only this part of the people supports Trump can there be a possibility of large-scale conflict.
In addition, the United States has always regarded itself as a "beacon of democracy", but in recent years, especially during the Trump administration and election campaign, the outside world has begun to re-examine the actual state of democracy in United States.
Whether it's the Capitol riots, the reform of electoral legislation, or the flaws in the electoral system, they all show that United States' democracy is far from being as solid as imagined.
More and more United States are losing trust in political institutions such as the government, Congress and the courts.
This breakdown of trust has made the United States political system even more fragile.
And if the election results disappoint Trump supporters again, this distrust will undoubtedly simmer further and provoke mass protests.
But, on the other hand, if Trump is elected, things will not be much better in United States.
In recent years, United States society has become increasingly divided, and Trump's governing style has exacerbated these contradictions.
According to a Pew Research Center survey, after 2020, the degree of "polarization" of United States society has reached the highest point in modern history.
Whether it is on epidemic prevention and control, economic policy, or international affairs, the differences between the two major parties are almost irreconcilable.
Take, for example, the recent shooting, which, although Trump himself was not injured, highlights the growing tendency toward violence in United States society.
Whether it is the "Oath Keepers" from the far right or the "anti-fascist action" from the far "left", the risk of political violence has permeated all corners of United States society.
According to a Pew Research Center survey, more than half of United States believe the country is more divided than ever.
There is little consensus between supporters of the Democratic and Republican parties, and the two sides are so divided on key policy issues that they are not even able to have a normal political dialogue.
This deep-seated social division will greatly affect future policy formulation and national governance, leading to a decline in the efficiency of policy implementation and the collapse of social trust.
So, although the possibility of a full-scale civil war in the United States is relatively small.
Moreover, on August 7, 2024, Biden publicly claimed in front of the media that he was worried that Trump would fail again and that United States would be at risk of civil war.
His fear that the civil war was fake, ruined Trump's popularity, aroused public revulsion against him, and canvassed for Harris was real.
But whether Trump succeeds or loses his campaign, the risk of social division and political violence in United States will continue to exist in the future.
The United States of the future will have to face how to repair a society torn apart by radicalized politics.
Bibliography:
What will happen if Trump loses the election but refuses to accept it, The Paper· The Paper· The Paper, 2020-11-07
Fu Suixin: Can Trump Make a Comeback: Based on an Analysis of the Factors Influencing His Political Outlook, Contemporary United States Review, August 2, 2021
If Trump loses the election, will a "peaceful handover" be a luxury? Biden points out the risk of civil war in United States, Times concerns, 2024-08-10
"Mildew" announces support for Harris! Trump vs. Harris first televised debate, who performs better? Audience and Voter Statement, National Business Daily, 2024-09-11
Biden: If Trump loses the election, I have "no confidence" in the peaceful transfer of power, Xinhua News Agency New Media, 2024-08-08
Trump says there will be a "massacre" in United States if he can't be elected, and the Biden campaign condemned Globi.com 2024-03-17