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△Typhoon "Bebinca" track probability forecast (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
People's Voice of the World, September 15, Beijing Express In the blink of an eye, the traditional 24 solar terms of "white dew" have arrived. On the national weather stage this week (September 9-September 15), in the opinion of experts, the subtropical high remains strong; But. The cold air is also active; During this period, some cold air can penetrate southward from low altitudes. Therefore, although the high temperature in the south is still there, it will be reduced from last week. On the northern edge and interior of the subtropical high, it rains a lot because of the convergence of cold and warm. Rain and cold air will also bring cooling; As a result, the temperature in the north will fluctuate a lot.
△Positioning of Typhoon "Bebinca" (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that at 18 o'clock tonight (15th), the Central Meteorological Observatory upgraded and issued the highest level of typhoon red warning, according to the latest meteorological data analysis, the 13th typhoon "Bebinca" will strengthen this year (2024) in the future; It is expected that it is most likely to be a strong typhoon (42-45 m/s) and make landfall in the area of Pudong, Shanghai-Pinghu, Zhejiang on the morning and morning of the 16th. Historical data can show that since 1949, no strong typhoon has landed in Shanghai; Bebinca is likely to be the first strong typhoon to make landfall in Shanghai.
△Typhoon "Bebinca" Gale Forecast (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to experts, the monitoring data shows that from the position at 19 o'clock and the 24-hour substation field forecast at the same time, the probability of landing in Shanghai is very high. At 19 o'clock in Shengsi, Zhejiang, the negative pressure is the most obvious. Therefore, this indicates that the center of the typhoon may pass near Shengsi in the future; However, there are no bridges and land connections in Shengsi; Therefore, even if the center passes through Shengsi, it is not considered a landing. Moreover, there have been 9 gusts of wind in Shengsi this evening; Judging from the change of wind direction from 14 o'clock to 19 o'clock, the north wind turns to the northeast wind, and the typhoon center is likely to pass through the south side of Shengsi and go straight to Shanghai.
△Typhoon Bebinca Precipitation Forecast (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
It is worth noting that industry insiders emphasized that it is not difficult to find that it is not difficult to find that as experts say, tonight to tomorrow (16th), it will be the strongest period of typhoon impact on wind and rain in East China. Moreover, wind and rain have a certain extreme. Due to the subtropical high on the north side of the typhoon, the pressure difference is greater; As a result, winds were stronger on the north side of the typhoon's landfall site; During this period, there is a possibility that wind gusts will exceed level 13 tomorrow morning in Pudong and urban areas of Shanghai. Heavy rainfall passed through the area of the typhoon center, and there were heavy rainstorms in southern Shanghai, northern Zhejiang, and southern Jiangsu; In the subordinate area of Jiaxing, there may be extremely heavy rain. (Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
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