The Philippines withdrew the coast guard ship from Sembin Reef, and due to repeated unsuccessful delivery of supplies, the four coast guards were starved of food for several days, and they were dying when they were carried off the ship (it cannot be ruled out that the Philippines continued to speculate). The Philippines may really be afraid of causing human life, and once this happens, the United States may use military force to "help" the Philippines, when the two major countries in the South China Sea high-intensity military collision may trigger consequences that the Philippines cannot afford.
Although the Philippine side has said again, this time it is not evacuating, but preparing to replace it with a new coast guard ship. But the Philippine media found something unusual: China claims sovereignty over Senbin Reef, but its behavior is a bit inexplicable. And it has been sitting on the beach for five months, and for the first four months, China has been verbally warning the Philippines to withdraw its coast guard vessels, but in fact there has been no movement, which is a bit inexplicable.
Media analysis of the Philippines from the beginning! China has long set a trap. Because there are many islands and reefs in the South China Sea, many of which are decided by "actual control," and many of the islands in the Nansha Islands are below the surface of the water at high tide and only appear at low tide. However, China inexplicably put the Philippine coast guard ship in it, and after the reef became a hot issue of international attention, it sent additional forces to consolidate its sovereignty over the reef: the Philippines withdrew, and there is no dispute here, and the reef is China's.
However, even so, it is too late for the Philippines to regret it, and this trap is really drilled into. In the future, if the Philippines wants to go to Xianbin Reef again, it will be even more difficult for the Philippines to take advantage of the trouble, and China will be able to build islands and reefs with greater fanfare, especially militarization. Expansion of islands and reefs into islands through reclamation. China has not done this before, and the location of Sembin Reef is closer to the Philippines, and if China completes the consolidation of its sovereignty and the construction of the islands here, it will not be good news for the troops stationed in United States.
The Philippines has repeatedly stressed that it is "prepared for the death of someone" and that the US military may intervene if the coast guard is killed
After holding out for several months, the Philippines finally did not dare to really tear its face, and after being unable to beached the coast guard ship because of China's blockade line, the Philippines urgently withdrew the coast guard ship after just two days of starvation. They also know that the Philippines will not be able to control the U.S. military if there are fatalities.
Be prepared for someone to die, this sentence has been emphasized many times by senior Philippine officials, and Xiaoma has also said it. And United States has also said that if the Philippine coast guard is on the verge of death, then the United States may take the initiative to activate the US-Philippines mutual defense treaty, use military forces to escort the Philippines, and assist the Philippines in transporting supplies. However, due to the blockade line set up by China, the Philippines was unable to deliver supplies, and the coast guard stranded on the coast guard ship at Xianbin Reef had not starved to death, but the Philippines urgently withdrew the coast guard ship, apparently fearing United States real military intervention. In fact, the Philippines certainly has deep concerns about United States involvement.
One of the Philippines' main concerns is the potential consequences of United States military involvement. While the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) promises United States support in the event of an attack on the Philippines, the Philippines does not want a dispute over one island and reef to drag the two countries into a large-scale conflict. United States involvement could trigger broader geopolitical conflicts, especially direct confrontation with China, which the Philippines does not want to see. The Philippines is well aware that once the United States intervenes, the conflict may escalate, bringing not only military conflict, but also huge economic losses.
The Philippines is also aware of the importance of maintaining a stable relationship with China. China is an important economic partner of the Philippines, especially in the areas of investment and trade. The Philippines does not want to undermine this relationship as a result of a military conflict. The Philippines may fear that United States' military involvement would anger China, leading to a deterioration in bilateral relations and negatively impacting the country's long-term interests. Past experience has also shown that United States commitments may sometimes fail to be fully fulfilled at critical moments, and that state support in actual military operations is insufficient, and that United States verbal commitments alone may not be sufficient to ensure its security.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. must balance domestic pressure and diplomatic strategy when dealing with the South China Sea, and over-reliance on United States could lead to domestic policy discontent, especially those who believe the Philippines should be more autonomous and independent. Given its limited military capabilities and resources, and its navy and coast guard are relatively weak compared to China's, the Philippines may feel it needs more time and resources to deal with the problem than rush to trigger a full-blown conflict in the face of Chinese pressure.
However, it will be difficult for the Philippines to come back after this withdrawal, and China's forces deployed near Xianbin Reef will not be easily withdrawn, and since it has actually controlled the islands and reefs, it is of course necessary to further consolidate its sovereignty. The South China Sea is a magical place, the islands are constantly getting bigger, and Xianbin Reef is not suitable for now, but it may not be suitable for large military ships in the future. There have been reports from the Philippines that there are coral reef debris near some of the islands, suggesting that China may already be building them.
China did not use force directly, but sea power made United States jealous
In this defense of the islands and reefs, China did not take military measures, but used the coast guard and civilian vessels to set up a blockade line to prohibit the Philippines from carrying out illegal supply activities, especially the possibility that the Philippines may secretly transport building materials to strengthen the coast guard ships sitting on the beach. The Philippines cannot afford to deal with the Philippines without military means. In international morality, military methods often attract more fierce criticism, and foreign media only stand in their favor regardless of whether what you do is just or evil to you. In order to maintain a good image, it is also appropriate to adopt a more gentle approach.
Before the Xiangshan Forum began, United States and other Western media also hyped up sovereignty issues in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea and other places, and United States military personnel believed that China was too tough in these places and affected the "freedom of navigation" of United States, but China also reiterated its position that sovereignty issues are not issues that can be discussed, and that there is no point in discussing them. In order to cooperate with the actions of the coast guard ships, China also sent 055 destroyers to escort them, but in the end, the US military did not make any actual moves, but only sent reconnaissance planes and other reconnaissance planes to circle around the outside.
Despite United States strong dissatisfaction with China's assertive posture and a series of military operations and media propaganda in places such as the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the East China Sea, United States's actual actions show its strategic sophistication and cautiousness. Although the United States military has stated that China's actions have affected "freedom of navigation" and conducted some reconnaissance flights in the surrounding area, it has not taken further actual military action. There are several important reasons behind this attitude:
- Prioritizing interests: United States actions in these regions are primarily aimed at protecting its own strategic interests. Although the disputes in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the East China Sea are of great strategic importance to United States, the United States does not want to have a direct conflict with China over these disputes. United States' strategic considerations are more about how to maintain its global leadership and strategic interests without triggering a full-scale conflict.
- Military and Economic Considerations: The potential costs and risks of United States military operations in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the East China Sea are key strategic considerations. A full-scale military confrontation with China involves not only high economic costs, but can also lead to unforeseen military consequences. The United States military knows that direct military involvement could trigger broader conflicts, affecting the global economy and its own strategic stability.
- Allies and Regional Stability: United States' stance in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait is also influenced by its allies. Although the United States supports allies Philippines and Taiwan on these issues, in reality, the United States does not want these disputes to escalate to the level of full-scale conflict. United States's strategic goal is to maintain regional stability through dialogue and pressure, while avoiding local conflicts affecting the global strategic layout.
- Strategic Flexibility: The United States has adopted a flexible strategic approach in the face of China's challenges. Although on the surface it expressed strong dissatisfaction with China's actions, it maintained a certain degree of restraint in actual actions. This strategy is designed to convey United States' position to the international community, while avoiding direct military confrontation and leaving a broader space for strategic options.
United States also needs to "be famous" and adopt demilitarized means, China has avoided United States' direct intervention in the Xianbin Reef incident, and non-military means only seem to be moderate, but for a backward country like the Philippines, water cannons and other attack methods are already difficult for the Philippines to bear. In fact, the behavior of the Philippines is also annoying in the international community, they used to sit on the beach, and now they still want to get involved in China's islands and reefs in this way, this kind of behavior is very disgraceful, you say that it is your islands and reefs, but your behavior is sneaky, do you still need to sit on the beach to control? Isn't this the scoundrel practice of three hundred taels of silver here?
There are also media in the West who believe that the Philippines is insatiable, and not all of them support the Philippines in their attitude. To put it more broadly, this behavior of the Philippines is deliberately creating regional hot spots and deliberately provoking a collision between China and United States and even the West in the South China Sea. This place in the South China Sea is very important, related to several busy shipping channels, energy and trade routes in the world, if the Philippines really creates a battlefield in the South China Sea, then the European United States can hate the Philippines. Now the Philippines has reacted, but it is too late to regret it.