This year's pig price is really unpredictable. The price of the season does not rise, should not rise in the season but the price rises, traditionally, the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day pig price fall back is undoubted, but until now the price of pigs is still declining, has always entered the golden period of pig raising, the decline is very small, every day is up or down a few dimes, pig prices are still around 9-10 yuan per catty fluctuations, the general farm slaughter a fat pig breeding profit is still more than 500 yuan, feeding management level high breeding profit of more than 1000 yuan, pig farming is still in the dividend period. What is the reason for the continuous decline in hog prices? Can hog prices stop falling and rebound? This is a particular concern for pig farmers at the moment.
This year, the price of live pigs began to rise in May, to the beginning of August per catty exceeded 11 yuan, pig farmers after more than a year of hope, looking forward to the stars and the moon finally looking forward to the pig profit period, ordinary farms slaughter a fat pig breeding profit is still more than 500 yuan, breeding management level high level of breeding profits of more than 1,000 yuan, pork earns a lot of money. But the good times did not last long, in mid-August, the price of live pigs continued to fall, has fallen for more than a month, what is the reason for the continued decline in pig prices? I think there are a number of reasons for the continued decline in hog prices.
First, pig farmers hoarded a large number of fat pigs and secondary fattening, at the beginning of the year experts believe that in June this year into a new pig price cycle, as well as in last year began to implement the pig capacity plan, there is news that the beginning of the sow herd has been reduced to 3900 heads, while many free-range farmers due to poor pig profits and leave the pig industry. Pig farmers know that the beginning of the pig price cycle is the most profitable golden period for pig breeding, so since late May this year, large-scale farms have adopted the method in July 2022 to hoard a large number of fat pigs that should have been slaughtered for secondary fattening, artificially reducing the number of fat pigs on the market, resulting in a shortage of pigs in the market. A few months have passed, and these farms have accumulated a large number of large fat pigs, while the standard pigs are still being fattened every day. After the second fattening of the fat pig two meat is equivalent to the meat production of three standard pigs, so now the farm is not a lack of fat pigs, but a large number of fat pigs need to be slaughtered in time, some farms can not bear the first slaughter of fat pigs.
Second, caused by the phobia of pig farmers, the first round of pig prices in this year's Dragon Boat Festival has made farmers feel a little gratified, since October 2022, pig farmers have been in a situation of meager profits or losses, in mid-August, hoarding secondary fattening farms due to economic inability to bear, a large number of large fat pigs and normal fattening pigs, most of these pig farmers are following the trend of breeding or lack of pig breeding management technology, disease prevention and control technology and pig management technology farms, they have a psychological panic, In the early days of the rise in pig prices, we took hoarding fat pigs for secondary fattening, which promoted the rise in pig prices, but the price could not continue to rise for a long time, there was a day of decline, as long as the market pig prices had a downward trend, they were worried that the pig price would fall down, hoping to try to slaughter the fat pigs in the case of profits, reduce losses, so as long as the pig price fell when it fell, these pig enterprises rushed to slaughter a large number of fat pigs, which caused the decline in the price of pigs in the market. Since 2021, every hog price increase has been short-lived, generally maintained for about a month. I am worried that once the pig falls below the production cost, it will bring huge losses, so I will follow a large number of slaughter to accumulate so many fat pigs for so long. Naturally, the market is in a situation of oversupply, and the price of live pigs continues to fall.
3. After the end of the marine fishing moratorium, a large number of aquatic products will be put on the market, and the fishing moratorium in the Yellow, East and South China Seas will be implemented for about three months every year. Since the implementation of the fishing moratorium in May, the market Shanghai products have been greatly reduced, aquatic products are only freshwater aquaculture, people can only consume pork, this period of time due to the lack of aquatic products in the market, resulting in the price of live pigs continued to rise, after the fishing moratorium in August, a large number of aquatic products will be listed. The long-lost seafood is on the market, and the price is low, consumers reduce the consumption of pork and increase the consumption of seafood, resulting in weak pork consumption, pork consumption decreases, and the number of fat pigs on the market continues to increase, which causes pork to be in a situation of oversupply, and the price continues to decline.
Fourth, the purchasing power of consumers has generally declined; this year, due to the economic recession, the purchasing power of ordinary people has dropped by a large margin, and now ordinary people are focusing on solving the problem of food and clothing. In the past, the pork stalls at the farmers' market were crowded, but now they are crowded. The decline in social purchasing power will inhibit the consumption of pork to a large extent, and secondly, the vast majority of pork produced now is lean pigs from abroad, the pork quality is poor, and there is a fishy smell, many consumers turn to the consumption of beef and mutton, chicken and aquatic products, reducing the consumption of pork. From January to July this year, the mainland imported a total of 600,000 tons of pork (excluding offal), a year-on-year decrease of 43.2%.
5. The impact of the rotation of imported frozen pork from the central reserves, before the Mid-Autumn Festival, it was reported that on September 5, 2024, 15,800 tons of imported frozen pork from the central reserves will be rotated out of the warehouse.
Sixth, the herd of sows is still saturated, last year to capacity, a large reduction in the number of sows that can reproduce, there are reports that a large number of sows have been eliminated, now the herd of sows in about 38 million, is this possible? Nowadays, most farms are self-farrowing, with piglets in each farm being able to meet the needs of their own production, and many farms are overstocked with sows. The reason for this is that pig farmers according to the law of the previous pig price cycle, into the early stage of the pig price cycle into a few years of pig dividends, whether fat pigs or piglets prices will rise sharply, now pig farmers know this truth, so will not eliminate sows, everyone is watching each other, now the number of sows eliminated has not increased much, piglets are still continuously produced for fattening, fat pigs continue to be fattened out of the market, long-term in the situation of oversupply.
Can hog prices stop falling and rebound? I think that the price of live pigs can stop falling and rebounding, and the time to stop falling and rebounding is not far away, and it is possible to stop falling and rebound in the near future. First, since May, the hoarding of secondary fattening of large fat pigs has been slaughtered, near the end, the number of fat pigs has decreased significantly, the number of fat pigs on the market has gradually reached the balance between supply and demand, and the price will stop falling and rise. In the next few months, the price of live pigs will continue to rise, the highest value will appear at the end of November to December, the current price of live pigs has reached the peak, their range will not be very large, the price of live pigs will not fluctuate, the end of this year pig prices are estimated at 11-12 yuan per catty, it is difficult to exceed 13 yuan. From January to July this year, the mainland imported 600,000 tons of pork (excluding offal), a year-on-year decrease of 43.2%. Third, it has now entered the annual pork consumption season, with the gradual decline in temperature, to the season of family or meat processing enterprises to produce bacon, bacon, sausage, ham, people more or less to make a certain amount of cured bacon food. As a result, bacon production season begins after November this year, with pork prices peaking between late November and mid-December. Fourth, it has now entered the golden period of the new pig price cycle, which is currently a period of rising pig prices, and the price of live pigs is rising as the mainstream, I think that the price of live pigs and pork prices will go all the way up for a period of time in the future, and pig farmers do not need to be nervous and worried.
Now some farms still continue to reluctantly sell, eager for the price of live pigs to skyrocket like in 2019, in order to obtain greater profits, that is, to gamble. I think that pig prices are unlikely to rise sharply, pig farmers should grasp the price opportunity to slaughter in time, don't press the fence again, make their own decisions, don't be bewitched by the Internet pig price people, don't have enough people's hearts to swallow elephants, pay attention to avoid the end of October 2022, the profit of each slaughtered pig exceeds 1500 yuan and does not go out of the slaughter and waits until the loss to slaughter the phenomenon of recurrence.