This Mid-Autumn Festival is a 4-day holiday! U.S. stocks took advantage of our rest to soar, and India's stock market also hit a record high. Hong Kong stocks have opened low and gone high for two consecutive days, and they are also very strong! As an A-share investor, I have mixed tastes.
The external bullish coaxing, mainly stimulated by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations! The latest forecast puts the odds of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed next week to 60%, up from 30% a week ago, so it's no wonder the world is so high.
Now the pressure is on tomorrow's A-shares, which should be able to give a higher opening. But what will happen after the high opening? I can only spread my hands together. I hope to be a little tougher and make up a red envelope for everyone.
Of course, I can also understand those pessimistic, after all, the news is not good. From the United States to the substantial increase in tariffs, to the XX retirement policy, various data in August are also average, and the only domestic lithography machine is still very different.
In short, Big A is currently in the same urine relationship with the national football team, and it is difficult to look at it with normal thinking. Look at the peripheral market, and then look at A-shares, it can only be said that it is a kind of helplessness! Then lower your expectations, and there will be surprises if you don't do well.
1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes domestic DUV lithography machine: over-engraving ≤ 8nm
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guidance Catalogue for the Promotion and Application of the First (Set) Major Technical Equipment (2024 Edition)". Among them, the argon fluoride lithography machine shows a resolution of ≤65nm and an overlay ≤8nm; Krypton fluoride shows a resolution of ≤ 110nm and an overlay ≤ 25nm! This lithography machine can probably mass produce chips with 28nm process, although it is not particularly advanced technology, but it is still significant, because this is the dividing line between the low-end and high-end of the chip.
Comments: One of the most discussed things during the holiday, the domestic lithography machine was officially announced. The resolution ≤ 65nm, overlay ≤ 8nm lithography machine, theoretically can mass produce 28nm chips, and achieve independent control in low-end chips.
This signal is of great significance, marking that the domestic advanced lithography machine has entered the landing stage, who said that "the domestic lithography machine cannot be made"? Of course, this lithography machine belongs to the mid-range, and the gap with the Netherlands ASML is very large, this must be admitted.
For Big A, although this is not new (this document has been issued on September 9), it is quite fierce during the holiday, and it is a high probability that the lithography machine and photoresist concept will be opened high tomorrow. You can find the theme of superimposed state-owned enterprise reform, and it is expected that it will still be able to hit some heights!
In short, the threshold of technology is very high, and few people can understand it. From the perspective of hype, "cognition is more important than facts", and the latest wave of "Huawei HiSilicon" has been announced at the press conference for a long time! But the real hype doesn't start until expectations are aligned.
The bad part is that there are only 9 trading days before the National Day, and it is difficult to come up with a main theme hot spot. In this direction, we need to lower expectations, and I don't think it's so sustainable!
2. The United States has decided to impose tariffs on Chinese products Electric vehicles will be subject to 100% tariffs
The Office of the United States Trade Representative said that starting September 27, tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles will be increased to 100 percent, solar cells will be raised to 50 percent, electric vehicle batteries, critical minerals, steel, aluminum, masks and shore-to-shore container cranes will be raised to 25 percent, while tariff increases on other products, including semiconductor chips, will also take effect in the next two years.
Comments: The United States has made a black hand again during the holiday, and today it is determined to raise tariffs on Chinese products! Among them, the tariff on electric vehicles will be increased to 100%, the tariff on semiconductors will be increased by 50% (two new categories of polysilicon and silicon wafers will be added), and the tariff on solar cells will be increased by 50%.
It can be said that this time it includes almost all the superior products of the mainland, and it belongs to a fixed-point attack. But the impact of this matter is not so big, first, it is actually a continuation of the 301 tariff, which has been expected for a long time; 2. The exports of these 14 categories of commodities to the United States will only account for 0.65% of the overall domestic export value in 2023, which is quite low.
Now the United States presidential election is heating up, and some policies are aimed at us and restricting our high-end manufacturing. This is expected, and I think it's a downside, not a big downside.
But A-shares are hard to say, this market can always find a reason to fall, which makes people speechless. I hope that the institutions will be tougher, not trembling at a little shortcoming, and panic throwing the chips in their hands!
3. Hong Kong stocks exploded during the Mid-Autumn Festival! Analysts: The main reason may be the rising expectations of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve
Hong Kong stocks ushered in a big outbreak during the Mid-Autumn Festival, opening low and going high for 2 consecutive days, led by real estate stocks. Analysts pointed out that the rising expectations of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are one of the main reasons for the strength of the Hong Kong market. According to forecasts, 62% of market participants are currently expecting a 50 basis point rate cut, and Hong Kong stocks may react more significantly to the Fed's rate cut than the A-share market.
Comments: Hong Kong stocks have opened low and gone high for two consecutive days and two days, and the resilience is still very strong. In the past, the two brothers of the dung pit never knew whether Hong Kong stocks dragged down A shares, or A shares dragged down Hong Kong stocks, but now the winner is finally separated!
In the past two days, Hong Kong stocks have risen more in the industry, one is non-ferrous metals (Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, etc.); second, energy (PetroChina, Sinopec, etc.); the third is innovative drugs, the fourth is Internet companies, and the fifth is real estate; Sixth, Chinese-funded financial stocks (brokers, insurance, etc.).
For A-shares, the direction of the Fed's interest rate cuts can also be paid attention to. But the Fed has really cut interest rates, and it's hard to say whether Big A will rise! The goddess is out of love, and people may not be able to take a fancy to Dick.
4. The central bank: start to push some incremental policy measures to further reduce the cost of corporate financing and household credit
The person in charge of the relevant department of the central bank interpreted the relevant situation of the financial statistics in August: We will adhere to the supportive monetary policy stance and create a good monetary and financial environment for the economic rebound. Accelerate the implementation of the financial policy measures that have been introduced, and start to introduce some incremental policy measures to further reduce the cost of corporate financing and household credit.
Comments: After the release of the financial data in August, the central mother also came out to interpret it, which is relatively rare.
He also said some positive things, such as starting to launch some incremental policy measures to further reduce the cost of corporate financing and household credit. This reduction of residents' credit costs should reduce the stock of housing loans!
Now the data is really bad, but there are more policies. It's just that it hasn't worked, and now I can only get through, and Big A is expected to fall below 2700, but it shouldn't stay long below 2700, be optimistic.
5. Bank of America: Chinese equity funds have attracted $91.6 billion this year
According to a report by the Bank of United States, since the beginning of this year, the inflow of funds into emerging market equity funds has reached 109 billion US dollars, of which 91.6 billion US dollars have flowed into Chinese equity funds, 20.3 billion US dollars have flowed into India equity funds, and 3.2 billion US dollars have flowed out of Brazil. Emerging market equity funds recorded net inflows of US$2.2 billion in the week ended the 11th of this month, marking the 15th consecutive week of inflows.
Comment: The Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates yet, and funds have already flowed from developed equities into emerging markets. Bank of United States reports that emerging market equities have attracted $109 billion so far this year, including $91.6 billion into China and $20.3 billion into India.
Foreign capital flows into China's stock market are much more than India's stock market, but why are A-shares so bad? First, the inflow of foreign capital is more in Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks, rather than A-shares; The second is that domestic capital runs more in Big A!
From the perspective of capital structure, the ratio of domestic and foreign capital in A-shares is 80:20, and the ratio of domestic and foreign capital in Hong Kong stocks is 60:40. Foreign investors are actually not so pessimistic about us, but the domestic sell-off is too big, resulting in new lows for big A. It's all domestic capital that smashed the market by itself.
In short, when we were at our most pessimistic, foreign investors were already buying Chinese stocks at low prices. They traded time for space, waiting for China's economy to recover, the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and when our stock market got up, everyone began to flock to the market.... They will be able to earn investment income and run.
Holiday Kanshi:
Other news.
Brother Xiao Yang had an accident. Brother Xiao Yang and his major anchors in the live broadcast room, because of the "Hong Kong Meicheng" brand moon cakes, suspected of false publicity, have been placed on file for investigation. This will have an impact on the entire live streaming.
Mid-Autumn Festival tourism is more popular. Domestic hotel bookings, car rentals, tickets and other bookings all achieved double-digit growth compared to the same period in 2019, with domestic hotel bookings increasing by 50%. But the consumption should not be good, such as liquor and so on.
The Fed will cut interest rates next Thursday. In the early morning of September 19, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. There should be no suspense about the rate cut, and it will be interesting to see whether it will be cut by 25 or 50 basis points.
FBI: Trump is suspected of having suffered an "assassination attempt" in Florida.
On the whole, nothing major happened during the holidays, and the relatively high degree of discussion may be delayed retirement, lithography machines, tariffs, August financial data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut! There are overall pros and cons, judging from the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the past two days, the bears have basically been digested.
However, this week may well be the most important turning point in the second half of the year and years to come! So don't be too pessimistic, after the holiday, the big A may smash a stage low, and then usher in a wave of eating market.
Today's Mid-Autumn Festival is the traditional festival that Chinese attach the most importance to besides the Spring Festival.
I wish you all a full moon and a round income in A-shares.
Love stock Jun is a little less today, everyone also accompanies the family to have a good holiday, and forget about the tiring big A for the time being.