Paris Saint-Germain vs Girona
Cup: 2024-2025 #欧洲冠军联赛#
UEFA Champions League 3:00 Paris Saint-Germain VS Girona Venue: Parc des Princes Weather: Sunny Temperature: 22°C~23°C
#巴黎圣日耳曼# (home team) The number of players is 24, the whole team is worth €873.5m, 19 members of the national team, the average age is 27.2 years old, and the league belongs to: France First Division:
Record in the last 6 games: 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 26 goals scored in the last 10 games, 11 goals conceded, and 15 goal difference.
Last 10 home results: 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
Personnel situation: (main central defender) Kimpembe, (substitute left-back) Lucas· Hernandez, (main central striker) Gondallo · Ramos are injured and cannot play.
Paris Saint-Germain's Fabian · Ruiz and Ousmane · Dembele scored against Brest to help the team achieve a comeback.
Paris Saint-Germain's Gonzalo · Ramos, Kimpembe and Lucas · Hernandez are out with a long injury.
Team spirit: Luis · Enrique's Paris Saint-Germain team has started the new season positively and will be hoping to continue their good record.
Team update: Paris Saint-Germain are on a winning streak in Ligue 1 this season and currently have a goal difference of +13 from all four games.
Paris Saint-Germain have conceded 4 goals in the last 5 games, an average of less than 1 goal per game, and the defensive performance is excellent.
Paris Saint-Germain has scored a total of 17 goals in the last 5 games, with an average of nearly 4 goals per game, and the offensive end is full of firepower.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Girona
#赫罗纳# (Away) Number of players: 24, the whole team is worth €208m, 6 members of the national team, average age 27.2 years old, League: Spain First Division:
Record in the last 6 games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 12 goals scored in the last 10 games, 19 goals conceded, goal difference -7.
Last 10 away results: 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses
Personnel situation: (main central midfielder) Janger · Herrera is injured and cannot play.
Girona's Jangel · Herrera is out injured against Barcelona and may not be available for this game.
Girona may have to make some changes after Sunday's 4-1 defeat to Barcelona.
Fighting spirit: Michel suffered the heaviest defeat at home since taking charge of Girona and will be hoping for a quick bounce back.
Team update: Girona have scored a total of 8 goals in the last 5 games, with an average of nearly 2 goals per game, and the offensive side is full of firepower.
Girona have conceded 8 goals in the last 5 games, an average of nearly 2 goals per game, and the defensive performance is poor.
Girona have had a mediocre run in La Liga in the new season, with two wins, one draw and two defeats in five games, accumulating seven points.
Recent all-time head-to-head meetings between the two teams: The two teams have not faced each other in recent years and this match is an encounter for both sides.
In terms of the same handicap: Initial handicap: The home team has conceded one goal/one and a half goals, and the home team has played the same handicap trend in the past 6 games as this game: win win win lose win. The last 6 games of the away team have opened the same handicap trend as this game: lose, lose, lose, win, win.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Girona
Pre-Match Briefing:
Paris Saint-Germain will take on first-time Girona in the Champions League for the first time in their history.
This is PSG's first season without Mbappe, and despite his move to Real Madrid, the team is still doing well and his departure is yet to be felt.
Paris Saint-Germain have had an excellent start to Ligue 1, conceding just three goals and scoring 16 goals.
That performance began against Le Havre, where PSG had four different players on the scoresheet. Lee broke the deadlock in the opening three minutes, before Dembele, Balcola and Kolo · Muani scored in the final 10 minutes. Paris Saint-Germain managed a whopping 77% possession in this game with 10 of their 15 attempts at goal.
In the next game, Paris Saint-Germain continued their excellent attacking form, sweeping Montpellier 6-0. Barcola scored in each half, with Asensio and Lee Gang Ren netting again, while Achraf · Hakimi also scored his first goal of the season.
In the next 3-1 win over Lille, Barcola scored again, Vitinha took the lead from the penalty spot and Colo · Muani also had a net. In this game, PSG once again showed attacking prowess with 7 shots on target.
The Ligue 1 champions then host Brest as PSG had 22 shots on goal with nine of them on target. Dembele scored a goal in each half, while Fabian · Ruiz also scored a goal in the second half to win 3-1.
As for Girona, their start to the season has been up and down. They performed well last season, finishing third and just four points behind second-placed Barcelona.
However, Barcelona claimed a 4-1 victory over Girona in the last meeting, while Atletico Madrid also beat them a month ago. Girona's only wins so far have been a 4-0 victory over Osasuna and a 2-0 win over Sevilla.
Paris Saint-Germain's Kimpembe (Achilles tendon rupture), Gonzalo · Ramos (ankle injury) and Lucas · Hernandez (cruciate ligament tear) will not play.
Paris Saint-Germain coach #Luisenrique# is likely to adopt a 4-3-3 formation and is expected to start in the starting lineups: Gian Luigi· Donnarumma, Achraf· Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willem· Pacho, Nuno·Mendes, Fabian· Ruiz, Joao · Neves, Vitinha, Ousman· Dembele, Marco· Asensio and Bradley · Barcola.
Girona are likely to go for a 4-3-3 formation and are expected to start as follows: Paulo· Gasaniga, Alejandro· Françoise, David · López, Dalí · Blind, Miguel· Gutiérrez, Janger· Herrera, Oriol· Romeu, Ivan · Martin, Victor· Tsigankov, Abel · Ruiz and Bryan · Hill.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Girona
1. Strength analysis
- Paris Saint-Germain: 26 goals scored, goals conceded 11, goal difference 15.
- Girona: 12 goals scored, 19 goals conceded, goal difference -7.
- Paris Saint-Germain have a 2.2 goal advantage in the absolute theory world.
2. State analysis
- Paris Saint-Germain: 4 wins, 2 draws, 14 points in form.
- Girona:2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, form score of 7 points.
- The difference in form is 7 points, which belongs to the situation where the two teams have a large gap in form, and Paris Saint-Germain has a clear advantage in form. In addition, the injury situation in Paris is more serious, with several main players absent (such as Gontalo · Ramos, Kimpembe, etc.), but the substitutes are still strong, so the overall form has little impact.
3. Analysis of fighting spirit
- Paris Saint-Germain: Luis · Enrique is looking to extend his winning streak and is full of fighting spirit, and the team is motivated to win the Champions League, especially at home.
- Girona: Poor recent form, losing 4-1 to Barcelona in their last game, but the team may have a strong desire to bounce back against a strong opponent in this game. However, due to the obvious difference in strength, although Girona's fighting spirit is strong, it is difficult to make up for the overall disadvantage.
4. Handicap analysis
- The initial handicap is one goal/goal and a half for the home team, and the water level is 0.94 for the home team and 0.90 for the away team.
- The current live handicap is half a handicap for the home team, with the water level at 1.00 for the home team and 0.93 for the away team.
- Sept. 4 to Sept. 13: During this time, the market has been stable at one-goal/one-and-a-half, with the home team level fluctuating between 0.79-0.82, reflecting the institution's confidence that Paris will be able to score 1.25 goals. However, Girona's water level is at a higher 1.10-1.12, suggesting that Girona is having a harder time winning.
- 14 Sep - 17 Sep: During this time, the handicap rises slightly, the home team water level of Grand Paris begins to rise to 0.90-0.96, and the market's confidence in the big win in Paris begins to waver. At the same time, Girona's away team water level has dropped to 1.05-1.07, indicating that the agency believes that Girona may hold the handicap.
- 18 September: Live markets show big swings, with the water level in Grand Paris close to 1.00 and Girona fluctuating between 0.93-0.96. This indicates a certain change in the attitude of the market and institutions, and although the probability of Paris winning is still high, it is more difficult to penetrate the ball and a half.
- Judging from the changes in the handicap and the trend of the water level, institutions always believed that PSG could win the game, but as the time for the game approached, the confidence of the market and institutions in the Paris victory weakened. Girona could lose in this game, but the movement of the water level suggests that Girona's chances of winning the handicap with a smaller loss are increasing, especially after the handicap has been adjusted to a half-goal and the institution's confidence in Girona has picked up.
5. Institutional bottom-line forecasting
- 胜：1.35 / 1.31 ≈ 1.03
- Draw: 4.80 / 4.65 ≈ 1.03
- 负：6.50 / 6.60 ≈ 0.98
- All values are below 1.2, there is no option to exclude them directly, and the values are relatively close.
6. Analysis of the change of win, draw and loss trend
- From the initial handicap to the instant handicap, the home win level has been continuously lowered, the winning rate of the home win is gradually improving, and the market and institutions are becoming more and more confident in Paris Saint-Germain's victory. The index also reflects a low risk in the direction of home wins, with a Paris Saint-Germain victory almost a high probability event.
- Draws and away wins are not favored: As the game approaches, the water level for draws and away wins rises significantly, indicating that the market has low expectations for both outcomes. Especially with away wins, the agency clearly ruled out the possibility of Girona winning.
- The return rate of the instant market shows that the institution has adjusted the water level of draw and away win, which may be to induce some players to choose the riskier direction (draw or away win), so as to disperse the payout pressure of the home win.
Home win transaction data
7. Transaction data analysis
- The highest volume at the home win level was 1.39, indicating a strong expectation of a win for PSG. Typically, a lower price level means that the market believes that the outcome is more likely. In addition, the total turnover of the main win accounts for the vast majority of the total turnover, indicating that the funds mainly flow into the direction of the main win. The low price and the concentration of a large amount of money indicate that the market has very strong support for Paris Saint-Germain, which generally indicates that the probability of a home win is very high. The main winning buyers are listed between 1.32 and 1.38, indicating that a large number of buyers are willing to buy within this range. The relatively low number of listings by sellers indicates that sellers are less interested in winning the main deal, which means that the market's confidence in PSG is high, and sellers are reluctant to continue to concede lower prices.
- The highest price for an away win is 9.0, which reflects the market's low confidence in Girona's win. Girona's total turnover relative to the home win direction shows that there is little money in the market willing to choose Girona to win. This, combined with the figures and inflows, means that Girona is unlikely to win.
- The volume of the draw price is concentrated at 6.0, and although the total turnover in the draw direction is slightly higher than that of the away win, it is still significantly less than that of the home win. The proportion of market funds flowing into the draw is relatively small, and the price of the draw is above 6.0, indicating that the market also has a low expectation of a draw. There are relatively high listings in the away win and draw directions, especially in the high-priced areas. This usually means that sellers are willing to accept higher prices to attract players, but the transaction amount shows that the market lacks confidence in both outcomes.
Final Lottery Prediction Suggestion: Home -1 Win Two to Zero
Statement: I only provide pre-game information and China Sports Lottery and Beijing single game analysis and prediction, most of the data from the network collection, analysis is only a personal opinion for reference only, please buy a reasonable regular lottery.