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Sour jujube kernel "has been blocked before and there is a chasing soldier after that", why can the market still rebound? | Yun Ling observes

In recent years, the market of Chinese herbal medicines has been high, such as the market of sour jujube kernels, which has risen from 200 yuan to more than 1,000 yuan, and the price has increased by 5 times. In this context, on the one hand, local governments are enthusiastic about supporting the production of Chinese herbal medicines, and the cultivation of jujube kernels is in full swing; On the other hand, high prices have also led to a large number of counterfeit and inferior goods hitting the market. In the past year or so, the market of sour jujube kernels can be described as "there are chasers after the interception", why can the market rebound again?

In this issue, from the perspective of raw materials involved in Zaoren Anshen Capsule, the data system of Zhongkang Yunling Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry analyzes the market logic behind the rebound of the product.

First, the sales of Zaoren Anshen capsules increased

1 manufacturer of Zaoren Anshen Capsule for sale, Sinopharm Tongjitang (Guizhou) Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.; In 2023, the retail sales will be 75 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%; The sales of the hospital side were 78 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%.

Second, the core raw material of Zao Ren Anshen Capsule

Sour jujube kernel "has been blocked before and there is a chasing soldier after that", why can the market still rebound? | Yun Ling observes

Table 1: The core raw materials of Zao Ren Anshen Capsule

This product is used to nourish blood and calm the nerves, and is suitable for insomnia, forgetfulness, upset, dizziness, neurasthenia and other diseases caused by insufficient heart blood.

According to the Zhongkang Yunling traditional Chinese medicine data system, among the core raw materials of Zao Ren Anshen Capsule, sour jujube kernel is the most important in the raw materials of Chinese patent medicine, and the consumption of this variety in the Chinese patent medicine channel will reach 1376 tons in 2023, but due to the rapid increase in prices, the consumption will decline relatively; Followed by salvia and schisandra, the consumption of Chinese patent medicine channels is more than 5,000 tons.

(Note: For more analysis of the consumption of raw materials and the competitive landscape of proprietary Chinese medicines, please log on to the official website of Zhongkang Yunling).

3. The sour jujube kernels in the jujube kernel soothing capsule fell sharply

Sour jujube kernel "has been blocked before and there is a chasing soldier after that", why can the market still rebound? | Yun Ling observes

Table 2: Hot varieties of market price changes this week (unit: yuan/kg)

During the period from January 2023 to September 2024, the core raw materials of Zaoren Anshen Capsule will rise by 1, accounting for 33.3%; 1 declining variety, accounting for 33.3%; One flat variety, accounting for 33.3%.

Sour jujube kernel: In the first half of this year, the market once fell to around 400 yuan, and the current market has rebounded to around 550 yuan. Although the price corrected slightly again last week, the overall market is still upward compared with the first half of the year.

Salvia: Recently, the price is still stable, and the supply of goods on demand is mainly moving, at present, the price of semi-fine goods produced in Shandong in Bozhou market is about 21 yuan, and the price of fine goods is between 23-25 yuan.

Schisandra chinensis: At present, the new production continues, this year's supply output is still in quantity, the price of new goods is between 60-62 yuan, and the price of oilseeds is between 65-68 yuan.

3.1. The high price of jujube kernels stimulates the enthusiasm of harvesting

Sour jujube kernel "has been blocked before and there is a chasing soldier after that", why can the market still rebound? | Yun Ling observes

Figure 1: Market price trend of jujube kernel from 2004 to 2024 (unit: yuan/kg)

Judging from the historical price trend of jujube kernels, in 2014, the production of jujube kernels was large, and the price plummeted, falling from 280 yuan to 150 yuan. From 2015 to 2018, the price of jujube kernels rose slowly. 2018 is a new year of production and the source of import substitution is blocked, and in 2019, when the new production is made, the price of Hebei unified goods in the market reaches a sky-high price of 290 yuan.

In 2020, in the context of the epidemic, enterprises started to start less, demand expectations decreased, and prices fell to about 200 yuan. In 2021, the production of sour jujube kernels will be reduced and the price will rise, resulting in farmers rushing to green, poor quality, and rising prices, with the market reaching a historical high of around 460 yuan. In 2022, instead of declining, the market of sour jujube kernels will soar all the way, and the price of old goods will once exceed 1,000 yuan when it is new. After the new production, as the inventory was replenished, the market declined slightly, but due to the small overall output, with the consumption of inventory, the price is still running at a high level. In 2023, with the weakening of the inventory in the market origin, the price of sour jujube kernels will rise slightly again, and the market will exceed 1,000 after the new production. High prices suppressed demand, and the market began to fall slightly, and prices fell rapidly before the new production in 2024 due to the high expectations of new production.

3.2. High prices suppress demand

Jujube kernels are mainly supplied by wild resources, both north and south, but mainly distributed in Zanhuang County, Tangshan, Qinglong County, Hebei, Weifang, Jinan, Zaozhuang, Shandong, and Yuncheng, Shanxi; Northern Shaanxi, Longnan Gansu, southern Liaoning. Due to the difference of soil moisture and light in different production areas, the ripening time of fruits varies from place to place.

Because the process of taking and harvesting kernels is complex and cumbersome, and requires special technology, a number of franchised processors have been formed, mainly distributed in Zanhuang, Hebei Province and Wenshang County, Shandong. The processing cost of these two places determines the price of jujube kernels in the country that year.

According to the statistics of Zhongkang Yunling Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry Data System, the output of jujube kernels in 2023 will be about 5,387 tons, and the market demand will be about 5,695 tons.

Fourth, comprehensive comments

1. The procurement cost pressure of sour jujube kernels and other varieties is relatively high The pressure test of raw materials shows that the current raw materials of jujube kernels mainly come from sour jujube kernels from the perspective of supply pressure; From the perspective of quality pressure, it mainly comes from sour jujube kernels and schisandra.

2. Serious adulteration of sour jujube kernel e-commerce This year, 315 broke out the chaos of traditional Chinese medicine e-commerce live broadcast, Zhejiang fritillary mother is sold as Sichuan fritillary, imported sour jujube kernel is sold as domestic sour jujube kernel, all kinds of counterfeit products and customary products are sold as genuine products, and it is difficult for ordinary consumers of traditional Chinese medicine to distinguish the authenticity, and the e-commerce live broadcasters sell dog meat on the head of a sheep for the sake of profit, which brings great trouble to consumers. It also seriously interfered with the normal sales of traditional Chinese medicine.

3. It is difficult for the market of jujube kernels to bottom out in the short term According to the price trend analysis of Zhongkang Yunling big data platform, the main reason for the sharp rise in the price of jujube kernels in recent years is the reduction in production for three consecutive years and the rigid demand after the implementation of the new pharmacopoeia. It is expected that the price of jujube kernels will enter a correction period in 2024. However, due to the cycle constraints of wild variants and the high cost of harvesting, the market of jujube kernels will remain relatively high for at least 2-3 years.

To sum up, in the short term, jujube kernels will enter the peak consumption season, and the demand will increase; At the same time, the starting price of inventory merchants in the early stage is higher, and they will also find ways to pull up the market, so there is little room for the price of this variety to fall sharply. In the long run, as young adults become a high-incidence group of sleep disorders, the development of healthy products for jujube kernels will become a hot spot, and the demand will continue to grow.

For more detailed interpretation, please contact the background and refer to the "Blue Book on the Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry in 2023" and the series of reports on "Industrial Big Data and Trend Analysis in the Next Three Years" launched by Zhongkang Yunling Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry Data System (scan the code to get the full text catalog)!

Sour jujube kernel "has been blocked before and there is a chasing soldier after that", why can the market still rebound? | Yun Ling observes
Sour jujube kernel "has been blocked before and there is a chasing soldier after that", why can the market still rebound? | Yun Ling observes

(Unless otherwise noted in the article, the data are from Zhongkang Yunling)

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