Leganes VS Athletic Bilbao
League: 2024-2025 Spain First Division (20 teams in total)
La Liga 1:00 Leganes VS Athletic Bilbao Venue: Butalc Stadium Weather: Cloudy Temperature: 20°C~21°C
Leganés (home team) has 25 players, the whole team is worth €57.33m, 5 members of the national team, and the average age is 26.7 years:
Record in the last 6 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 12 goals scored in the last 10 games, 9 goals conceded, and 3 goal difference.
League Standing: 5 matches, 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, 5 points, ranked 15th (midstream)
Home results: 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses
Personnel situation: (main midfielder) Y. Neo is injured and cannot play.
Leganés' Ecuador defender Boroso, who played in a World Cup qualifier against Brazil last week, did not play in the last round and is likely to make his debut this round.
Team fighting spirit: Leganes is sitting at home this time, and the team needs to defend the home honor and is full of fighting spirit.
Team update: Leganés has scored a total of 5 goals in the last 5 games, conceded 4 goals, and played reasonably well at both ends of the offensive and defensive ends.
Leganes' strength is limited, the team's performance is gradually declining, and the team has only won 1 draw and 2 losses in the last 3 La Liga games, and the team's ranking has plummeted, and the pressure on the team is not small.
Leganés has played conservatively and scored fewer goals in the game, with no more than two goals in four of his five league games this season, and just enough three goals in the other.
Leganes
Athletic Bilbao (away) has 22 players, the team is worth €318.6m, 3 members of the national team, and the average age is 25.7 years:
Record in the last 6 games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 11 goals scored in the last 10 games, 17 goals conceded, goal difference -6.
League Standing:5 matches, 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, total 7, ranked 11th (midstream)
Away results: 3 wins, 0 draws, 7 losses
Personnel situation: (main goalkeeper) Unai · Simon, (main central defender) Yellai is injured and cannot play, (main midfielder) Jarejizar is red card and banned from playing.
Athletic Bilbao's Jarejizar, who went off the pitch in the last game, will have to sit on the sidelines, with Galareta likely to take his place.
Athletic Bilbao continue to be without Spain goalkeeper Unai Simon, who has returned to training but will not be back until at least after the October international break.
Team spirit: Athletic Bilbao are currently in the middle of the table, and the team still needs to score points to improve the ranking.
Team update: Athletic Bilbao has played well in the new season, although they have won 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 league games, but the 2 losses are against the top 3 teams Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, and they are unbeaten against teams in the second tier or below.
Athletic Bilbao have defended mediocre this season, keeping just one clean sheet in five league games against bottom-placed Valencia, including conceding against the likes of Getafe and Las Palmas.
Athletic Bilbao have scored in the second half of their last 12 away games in all competitions, with seven of them scoring at least two goals in the second half.
Recent historical meetings between the two teams: In the last five meetings between the two teams, Leganes has won 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, and the past record is at a disadvantage.
Athletic Bilbao and Leganés have scored fewer goals in their head-to-head matches, with as many as seven of the eight La Liga meetings between the two teams in their history not exceeding two goals.
The same handicap aspect: Initial handicap: the home team concedes the hemisphere, the home team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: win and lose win and lose, and the away team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: win and lose win and lose.
Athletic Bilbao
Pre-Match Briefing:
Leganés will be looking to end their scoring spreacity against Athletic Bilbao in this round of La Liga fixtures. The match will take place on Thursday at the Butalk Municipal Stadium.
Ahead of the sixth round, Leganés is in 15th place with 5 points, just 2 points above the relegation zone. Visitors Athletic Bilbao are ninth with seven points, just two points off the top five. Leganés have a record of one win and two draws in their first five matches. However, what worries home fans is that they have lost their last two games in a row and may have lost the momentum they had at the start of the season.
Leganés have also failed to score in their last three league games, which has given them a challenge ahead of this game. Athletic Bilbao have been a bit inconsistent despite their record of two wins and one draw in five matches. They have won and lost their last four matches, beating Las Palmas 3-2 in their last fixture.
The victory came with more than 30 minutes of the second half played with 10 men, so the morale of the visiting team will be high. Interestingly, Athletic Bilbao have also alternated wins and losses in their last six away league matches, but they will be hoping to break that trend in this one.
Leganes coach Borja · Jimenez's only injury to worry about at the moment is Ivan · Neyu (calf fracture), with the rest of the squad available.
Leganés are likely to go for a 5-3-2 formation and the starting lineup is likely to include Juan · Soriano, Mattia· Nastasic, Sergio· González, Javier· Hernandez, Valentine· Rossier, Enrique· Francisa, Siduba· Cisse, Darko · Brasanatz, Oscar· Rodriguez, Juan · Cruz and Sebastián · Alle.
Athletic Bilbao coach Ernesto · Valverde has several players absent due to injury. Yeree · Álvarez (hamstring injury) and Unai · Simon (wrist injury) are unavailable.
Athletic Bilbao are likely to opt for a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Julen· Aguirre Sabala, Inigo· Lecue, Daniel· Vivian, Aitore· Paredes, Youri · Berchiche, Benate· Prados, Inigo· Ruiz· Degalareta, Iñaki· Williams, Oihan· Sanset, Alvaro· Jallo and Gorka· Guruzeta.
Athletic Bilbao
1. Strength analysis
- Leganés have scored 12 goals in the last 10 games, conceded 9 goals and had a goal difference of 3;
- Athletic Bilbao have scored 11 goals in the last 10 games, conceded 17 goals, and have a goal difference of -6.
- In the world of absolute theory, Leganés has a 0.9 goal advantage. However, this is only a theoretical gap and further analyses are needed.
2. State analysis
- Leganes: 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 8 points;
- Athletic Bilbao:2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 7 points.
- Leganés have a slight advantage in form, but the difference in form is not too big (1 point), so the two teams are basically on the same level.
Injuries and disabsences:
- Leganes: Main midfielder Y. Neo is absent, and Boroso may make his debut.
- Athletic Bilbao: Main goalkeepers Unai · Simon, central defender Yeller are absent, and Jarre Gizar is suspended.
- Athletic Bilbao's injuries have had a big impact on the defence, especially the absence of goalkeepers and centre-backs, which could weaken the defence. Leganes' injury impact has been relatively small.
3. Analysis of fighting spirit
- Leganes: Playing at home, ranked 15th, although there is no pressure to be relegated at the moment, it is ranked lower, and the team has the will to defend the home honor.
- Athletic Bilbao: Ranked 11th, the team still has a chance to improve the rankings and has plenty of fighting spirit.
- Both teams have a fighting spirit, so other factors need to be taken into account to determine the trend of the game.
4. Asian Indices
- In the initial handicap, the home team received half a goal, and the water level was 1.05 for the home team and 0.85 for the away team.
- The current live handicap is a draw/half for the home team, with the water level being 1.13 for the main team and 0.81 for the away team.
- Between 13 and 17 September, there was a relatively steady adjustment in the water level. The water level in Leganés dropped during this phase, gradually dropping from 1.05 to 0.79, while the water level at Athletic Bilbao rose accordingly, reaching around 1.06. This change indicates that the market's confidence in Leganes has increased, and the money has started to tilt in favor of the home team, and the market's confidence in the away team's victory has waned.
- From 16:34 on September 17, there were some important adjustments in the handicap: Leganes' water level gradually rose, from 0.79 to 1.11, indicating that the market's support for the home team began to weaken and the flow of money was back tilted in favor of the away team. Athletic Bilbao's water level dropped, from 1.06 to 0.81, showing a return in confidence in the market's visitors. At this point in time, the handicap draw/hemisphere market started to appear and persisted over multiple time periods, further indicating that the market's confidence in both teams is more balanced. Athletic Bilbao are favored to win by small or at least draw, while Leganés may struggle to win at home.
- In several adjustments on 19 September, the water level in Leganés rebounded significantly, reaching a maximum of 1.14, while the water level at Athletic Bilbao gradually dropped to 0.81. Looking at the final data, the market is inclined to believe that Athletic Bilbao can go at least unbeaten on the road, with Leganés' chances of winning being considered low.
5. Institutional Bottom Line
- 胜：3.90 / 4.20 ≈ 0.93
- Draw: 3.20 / 2.90 ≈ 1.10
- 负：2.10 / 1.83 ≈ 1.15
- All values are within the bottom line of the institution, and no one can be ruled out, and the main undefeated value is lower and has an advantage.
6. Analysis of the change of win, draw and loss trend
- The home win level has dropped in many time periods, showing that the market's confidence in Leganes' home game is gradually increasing, but the home win index has been maintained at a high level, indicating that the institution does not believe that the home win is the most likely outcome, and more by lowering the home win water level to guide the market capital flow.
- The draw level fluctuated less throughout the adjustment process, but the final draw level was 3.00, which was a certain decrease compared with the initial market, indicating that the probability of a draw has increased in the market, but institutions may not be very optimistic about the draw, and most of the draw indices are above 0.93.
- The away win level has gradually risen from 1.80 at the beginning of the game to 2.10, indicating that the market's confidence in the away team is weakening. However, the index has remained low for most of the time, suggesting that institutions are still bullish on away team wins, and away wins are still the main possible outcome.
Win transaction data
7. Transaction data analysis
- Although the volume of the main win direction is less, there are some transactions in the water mark range of 4.4-4.6, which may mean that some funds are starting to look at Leganes to win in an upset. However, the buying of home wins is not strong relative to away wins, indicating that institutions and markets are not very optimistic about home team wins.
- There was a huge amount of buying in the away win direction, especially around 2.27, where there was a large inflow, showing a strong market bullish on the away team. A win for Athletic Bilbao is still the mainstream expectation in the market, but the away win level is not going down, but it may not be a sign that the visitors are completely optimistic about winning.
- The volume of buying and selling for a tie was relatively small, and the water level did not fluctuate drastically, indicating that the probability of a tie was more consistent in the market. A draw is also a possibility, but its flow is still relatively stable compared to the home win, with no signs of a significant increase.
Final lottery prediction suggestion: home +1 win 1 to 1
Statement: I only provide pre-game information and China Sports Lottery and Beijing single game analysis and prediction, most of the data from the network collection, analysis is only a personal opinion for reference only, please buy a reasonable regular lottery.