Let's talk about the trend of the A-share market first, first of all, after the Federal Reserve started to cut interest rates sharply, it did not usher in a strong rebound, and the enthusiasm of some investors was instantly extinguished.
It should be pointed out that the Fed announced a rate cut at its September meeting, and back in July we almost declared it "certain". So, for a large institutional layout, this is in the plan. It can even be said that the bottom is reached at any key position and at what time the counteroffensive is carried out in a planned and step-by-step manner. Do you think that like retail investors, a shuttle?
It only makes sense to understand how to do the plate, and complaining will not solve anything.
In addition, the expectation of an LPR "interest rate cut" in September has failed, and the policy does not take the action of "adding fuel to the fire" at this time, which can only be said to be very rational, step-by-step, and not swayed by the external environment.
In addition, if you have hundreds of billions of funds in hand, and there is still a week to go before the National Day holiday, will you make a big increase before the holiday? It is important to improve one's cognitive pattern, only when the pattern comes up and thinks from the perspective of the main force, so as not to say ridiculous views.
Therefore, based on this period, Xianxian Finance once proposed: a positive one may counterattack before the National Day, and a more prudent one, the probability of a counterattack after the National Day is greater.
Xianxian Finance has repeatedly proposed that the only current strategy is to "buy", in fact, there is nothing wrong, since the end of August after the peak of the five major state-owned banks, the ChiNext index has not hit a new low, although other indices continue to bottom. Fundamentally, the main funds are adjusting positions, and this process of "switching between high and low" takes time, so please don't use retail thinking to speculate on the position adjustment action.
This rebalancing time span, which takes one or two months, is very normal. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates aggressively, A-shares did not rise sharply, and the position adjustment has not yet been completed, which is also a reason.
However, the release of the new positive after Friday's close does not rule out igniting investors' enthusiasm.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) lost no time in promulgating the Provisions on the Calculation Standards for Risk Control Indicators of Securities Companies, improving the risk control indicators of securities companies investing in stocks and carrying out market-making and other businesses, appropriately optimizing the risk control indicators of high-quality securities companies, and relaxing the adjustment factor for risk capital reserves of high-rated and high-quality securities companies and the conversion factor of total assets on and off the balance sheet.
Industry insiders pointed out that the regulation is expected to release nearly 100 billion yuan of funds.
Securities companies release hundreds of billions of funds, it can be said that it is directly supported to A-shares, which is more powerful than other channels, at a critical moment, the introduction of relevant regulations, leisure finance believes that there are at least two points for everyone to think about: first, the introduction of policies, hoping to further support the stability of the market; Second, an important premise of "optimizing risk control indicators" is that the current securities market risk is controllable, or even almost non-existent, and the standard is further relaxed.
Let's look at the securities industry index, as early as the beginning of July, the major indexes have bottomed out in advance, and this bottom is even earlier than the ChiNext index.
What are the factors that give the securities sector such a big confidence?
As the saying goes, "Chunjiang Plumbing Duck Prophet", the securities sector is the most sensitive sector to A-shares.
We look at the trend of the RMB exchange rate, on July 3, the RMB exchange rate started an appreciation cycle, and the securities sector bottomed out on July 9, we can even say that the securities sector saw the RMB start the appreciation cycle, and then began to bottom.
In other words, international capital has been bullish on China's stock market since that point in time, at least it no longer dares to be bearish on China's securities industry.
Why the beginning of July?
In the past two months, this issue has been emphasized many times, because at the beginning of July, it was already considered that the Fed's start of cutting interest rates in September was "a certainty". Therefore, based on this logic, Xianxian Finance has repeatedly accused some people of maliciously pulling up the five major banks and pushing the major A-share indexes downward, so as to facilitate someone to copy a good bottom.
The securities sector is a lot better, mergers and acquisitions are very strong, rare in history, industry mergers and acquisitions, in the long run, will bring ecological healthy competition, conducive to improving the overall profits of the industry. Based on the above observations, Xianxian Finance believes that the securities sector is very likely to become the first to carry the banner of the A-share counteroffensive.