China Fund News reporter Li Shuchao Zhang Ling
Since the beginning of this year, the performance benchmark of bank wealth management products has continued to decline. According to the data, the average performance benchmark in August has fallen to 2.82%, a new low for a year. At the same time, under the adjustment of the bond market, the income of wealth management products has continued to decline since August, and the scale of existence has fluctuated significantly.
A number of industry insiders said that as interest rates continue to fall, investors should look at the decline in earnings rationally on the one hand, and on the other hand, they can respond to market changes through diversified portfolios.
The average performance benchmark fell to a one-year low of 2.82%.
On September 19, Minsheng Wealth Management announced that according to the financial contract agreement of Minsheng Wealth Management Guizhu Huiying Tianli Fixed Income Enhancement One-year Fixed Income Enhancement No. 10 wealth management product and the current market situation, the company decided to adjust the performance benchmark of the product from the next investment cycle, that is, after the open day on September 23, the performance benchmark before the adjustment was 3.7%-5.3%, and the adjusted performance benchmark was 3%-3.5%, and the upper and lower limits of the performance comparison benchmark were reduced by 1.8 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points respectively.
A number of products under Bank of China Wealth Management will also lower the performance benchmark, such as Bank of China Wealth Management - Wenfu • Junxin (Monthly Open) Private Bank Privilege 01 Since September 27, the performance comparison benchmark has been adjusted from 2.6%-3.8% to 2.05%-3.05%; Since October 8, the performance comparison benchmark of Wealth Management - Stable Wealth (30-day holding period) Ningxiang Edition No. 3 (share code CYQ30D3A) has been adjusted from 2.6%-3.4% to 2.05%-3.05%.
According to the data of Puyi Standard, since the beginning of this year, the average performance benchmark of wealth management products has continued to decline, and has dropped to 2.82% at the end of August this year, hitting a new low in nearly a year.
Industrial Securities data also shows that the performance benchmark of new products maintained a downward trend during the year.
In this regard, Li Xia, a researcher at Puyi Standard, said that the income of wealth management products is related to the yield of the underlying assets they invest in, and the income of wealth management products will also be affected by the decline in market interest rates and the decline in bond yields during the year. The downward adjustment of the performance benchmark is a response to market changes, which can revise investors' earnings expectations to a certain extent.
"The performance benchmark of wealth management products is a theoretical goal that is calculated, not the actual performance or actual rate of return of wealth management products." Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank of China, believes that the decline in long-term bond yields in the bond market, while wealth management is mainly invested in the bond market, is a major factor influencing the downward adjustment of the performance benchmark.
Wisdom Xinhong Wealth Management Research Institute also said that the main reason for the downward adjustment of the performance benchmark is the continuous decline in market interest rates, coupled with the continuous maturity of the original high-yield assets, resulting in a gradual decline in product yields. ”
The income of wealth management products has fallen, and the scale has fluctuated significantly
Since August, under the adjustment of the bond market, the income of banks' wealth management products has declined.
According to Puyi Standard data, as of August 2024, the average monthly seven-day annualized rate of return of cash management products in China was 1.81%, a decrease of 7BP from the previous month and a decrease of 108BP from the monthly average of the base period. The investment income of fixed income products in the national bank wealth management market in the past three months was 0.57%, down 17BP from the previous month; The investment income in the past six months was 1.34%, down 23BP from the previous month.
At the same time, the scale of wealth management products has fluctuated significantly since late August. According to the statistics of Industrial Securities, the scale of wealth management has fallen below 29.2 trillion yuan on September 1, and then rebounded slightly to 29.5 trillion yuan on September 15.
In this regard, Lou Feipeng believes that the central bank has carried out bond trading operations, bond yields have rebounded in August, wealth management products have broken net, and investors have redeemed wealth management products, resulting in a decline in the scale of existence. At present, September is the last month of the quarter, and it is more likely that the wealth management funds will return to the balance sheet, and there may be a decline in scale in the short term.
Yang Guozhong, a researcher at Puyi Standard, said that the decline in scale is a short-term phenomenon, because bank wealth management still has good returns, which is a good choice for low-risk asset management products, and the possibility of subsequent rises is greater.
"However, the decline in yields may continue to be maintained for a long period of time, and market interest rates have an overall downward trend, for example, the yields of various maturities of treasury bonds have generally fallen since the beginning of this year, and the future situation of the bond market is still uncertain." Yang Guozhong said.
"Whether the decline in the income and scale of wealth management products will continue in the future mainly depends on the trend of interest rates and the bond market." Wisdom Xinhong Financial Research Institute said.
Be rational about falling interest rates and build a diversified portfolio
Industry insiders said that in the face of declining interest rates, investors should look at it rationally on the one hand, and on the other hand, they can respond to changes by diversifying their portfolios.
According to the Wisdom Xinhong Wealth Management Research Institute, investors with low risk appetite can pay attention to cash and pure fixed income products, and those with slightly higher risk tolerance can appropriately allocate fixed income enhanced products. At the same time, it is recommended to diversify investments with a certain risk tolerance, or allocate multi-asset products, especially considering global diversification and paying attention to US dollar and euro area products.
"Against the backdrop of declining interest rates, investors should reassess their portfolios based on their risk appetite and adjust accordingly." On the one hand, investors can consider shifting some funds to other asset classes, such as appropriately increasing the proportion of equity asset investment; On the other hand, you can consider replacing short-term stable wealth management products with stable wealth management products with higher duration to obtain income, such as medium and long-term bond funds and hybrid funds.
"In addition, the current downward trend in interest rates is affected by multiple factors, such as slowing economic growth and rising deflation risks. In an uncertain macro environment, investors need to maintain portfolio flexibility and liquidity to respond to possible risks and new market opportunities. Yang Ji said.
Lou Feipeng believes that on the one hand, investors need to rationally realize that the current stage is the transition from the previous higher yield to a reasonable yield. On the other hand, investors need to face up to the problem of rate of return, and carry out long-term or short-term investment according to their actual situation in the investment process, because long-term investment pursues long-term returns, and short-term investment will better meet temporary liquidity needs.
Editor: Xiao Mo
Review: Muyu