Soybeans/meals
Researcher: Chen Jiezheng
期货从业证号：F3045719
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0015458
【External Disk Situation】
Overnight, the CBOT soybean index rose 0.38% to 1,055 cents/bu, and the CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.83% to $329.9/short tonne
【Related Information】
1. USDA crop growth report: In the week ended September 22, the United States soybean rate was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63%, 64% the week before, and 50% in the same period last year; The soybean harvest was 13% versus the consensus of 13%, 6% last week, 10% year-ago and 8% for the five-year average. The soybean defoliation rate was 65%, compared to 44% in the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and 57% in the five-year average;
2. USDA export inspection report: For the week ended September 19, 2024, the export inspection volume of United States soybeans was 485216 tons, 473276 tons after the previous week, and the preliminary value was 401287 tons. In the week of September 21, 2023, United States soybean export inspections were 507997 tons. So far this crop year, the total export inspection volume of United States soybean has been 1232080 tons, compared with 1311682 tons in the same period of the previous year;
3. Ministry of Commerce and Trade of Brazil: In the third week of September 2024, a total of 15 working days, a total of 4.3787 million tons of soybeans were loaded, compared to 6.398 million tons in September last year. The average daily shipment volume was 291,900 tons/day, a decrease of 8.7% from 319,900 tons/day in September last year, and the cumulative loading of soybean meal was 1,381,100 tons, compared with 1,687,200 tons in September last year. The average daily shipment volume was 92,000 tons/day, an increase of 9.1% from 84,300 tons/day in September last year;
4. My agricultural products: As of the week of September 20, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.0484 million tons, and the operating rate was 58%, 83,800 tons lower than the estimate. In the previous week, soybean stocks were 6.8762 million tons, a decrease of 17,700 tons, or 0.26%, from last week, and an increase of 2.2426 million tons, or 48.4%, from last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.4583 million tons, an increase of 111,500 tons or 8.28% from last week, and an increase of 593,000 tons or 68.53% from last year.
[Logical Analysis]
The market continues to pay attention to the adverse impact of dry weather in Brazil, but the overall impact is relatively limited, and the overall impact is expected to remain mainly volatile.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: the overall shock idea is treated
2. Arbitrage: M15 positive arbitrage
3. Options: Seagull options in the direction of downwards
sugar
Researcher: Huang Ying
期货从业证号：F03111919
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0018607
【External Disk Situation】
ICE raw sugar fell overnight, with the main contract down 0.10 cents/lb (0.44%) to 22.64 cents/lb.
【Related Information】
1. According to the data of the intelligent storage and transportation platform of Pan Sugar Technology, as of September 20, the inventory of the third-party warehouse of sugar in Guangxi was about 270,000 tons, a decrease of about 70,000 tons from the same period last year, and a decrease of about 420,000 tons from the average of the same period in the past three years.
2. On September 20, 2024, the closing price of ICE raw sugar was 22.72 cents/lb, and the RMB exchange rate was 7.0480. It is estimated that the estimated cost of Brazil sugar processing within the quota is 5689 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost of additional Brazil sugar processing is 7313 yuan/ton; Compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar, the estimated profit of Brazil sugar processing within the quota is 701 yuan / ton, and the estimated profit of Brazil sugar processing is -923 yuan / ton.
3. It is understood that Luhua Sugar has been successfully started on September 22, becoming the first sugar factory in Xinjiang to start up during the 24/25 sugar production period, 4 days ahead of the same period last year. COFCO Xinjiang's sugar mill is expected to start operations as early as September 25. According to the current situation, Xinjiang's sugar output is expected to reach a new high during the 24/25 sugar production period, from 558,600 tons to more than 700,000 tons.
4. Global sugar prices have skyrocketed in the past week, and Tom McNeill, director of Green Pool Commodities, said there are a number of reasons why sugar prices have "risen sharply". He believes that this began with the news that part of the sugar cane in Brazil was destroyed by fire. "We understand that 3 million to 5 million tonnes of sugarcane may be affected in Brazil, but the bigger factor is the drought in Brazil. I think the fire is a dramatic event that has focused the market on how much cargo has already been shipped out of Brazil, how much cargo is going to be shipped in the next quarter, and how much production in Brazil is declining dramatically. The market seems to be slowly waking up to the tight global supply. He estimated that sugar shortages could "easily" reach 1 million to 2 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025 alone.
[Logical Analysis]
Raw sugar stabilized overnight after a series of sharp upward movements, with prices remaining above 22 cents, watching the evolution of market concerns about the outlook for Brazil's sugar production. On the other hand, in the domestic market, the market's worries about weather disasters are gradually weakening, but affected by the sharp rise in the external market, Zheng Sugar has continued to rise, and it is expected that the disk will maintain a strong trend of shocks, but considering that the domestic supply is expected to be loose, the upper space may be relatively limited.
1. Unilateral: It is recommended to take profit for long orders in the early stage.
2. Arbitrage: Wait and see.
3. Options: Wait and see.
Grease plates
Researcher: Liu Qiannan
期货从业证号：F3013727
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0014425
【External Disk Situation】
CBOT U.S. soybean oil price change of -1.55% to 41.87 cents/lb; The main price of BMD horse palm oil changed by 0.96% to 4,015 ringgit/mt.
【Related Information】
1. SPPOMA: From September 1 to 20, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.01% month-on-month, the yield of oil palm fresh fruit bunches decreased by 7.80%, and the oil yield increased by 0.15%.
2. According to foreign news, five traders said that India refiners canceled 100,000 mt of palm oil purchase orders for delivery from October to December due to the increase in import tariffs and the rise in horse palm prices. India, the world's largest importer of palm oil, has refiners canceled the above quantities of purchase orders in the past four days, including 50,000 mt on Monday, after Malaysia's palm oil futures jumped to a two-and-a-half-month high. The cancellation of orders from India may limit the rally in palm oil prices in Malaysia, but may help support soybean oil prices as some refiners switch to soybean oil.
3.AgRural: Brazil's 2024/25 soybean planting rate reached 0.9% as of September 19, up from 0.06% the previous week but down from 1.9% a year earlier. AgRural said that soybean planting progress in Paraná is relatively ahead due to local rainfall last week, while farmers in Mato Grosso are facing hot and dry weather, with the state's soybean crop planting rate at 1.82 percent in the same period last year and 0.84 percent in the five-year average. As of last Friday (20 September), the soybean crop planting rate in Mato Grosso has reached 0.27 percent, according to data released by IMEA.
4. USDA Crop Growth Report: United States soybeans were 64% good for the week ended Sept. 22, 2024, higher than the market expectation of 63%, 64% the week before, and 50% a year earlier. For the week, United States soybeans were harvested at 13%, as the market expected 13%, the previous week was 6%, the same period last year was 10%, and the five-year average was 8%. For the week, United States soybean leaf fall was 65%, compared to 44% the previous week, 68% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 57%.
5. According to Mysteel, as of September 20, 2024 (the 38th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas of the country was 472,340 tons, a decrease of 41,200 tons or 8.02% from the previous week; The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key areas of the country was 1.1302 million tons, an increase of 32,800 tons or 2.99% from last week.
[Logical Analysis]
Overnight, the oil rose more to drive the oil in the inner disk, and the recent improvement in macro expectations, the escalation of geopolitical risks and the speculation of the weather in the production area, the oil continued to perform strongly. From a fundamental point of view, at present, the horse palm is still in the peak season of production increase in September, and it is expected that the horse palm may continue to accumulate inventory, but the inventory level is still not loose. The price of palm oil from the origin is still relatively firm, and the speed of domestic palm oil destocking has accelerated. The cost performance of domestic soybean oil has appeared, and the spot transaction of soybean oil has increased. Recently, due to the high temperature and dry weather in South America, the soybean planting progress in Brazil has been delayed, which has supported the soybean oil market. The domestic supply of vegetable oil is still sufficient, but due to the impact of anti-dumping events, uncertainty has increased, and vegetable oil is easy to rise and difficult to fall.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: At present, horse palm fluctuates between 3700-4000, and the main force of U.S. soybean oil maintains a low shock. The oil in the inner disk is expected to maintain a volatile trend and increase volatility. You can consider continuing to go long on dips and palm oil in the near month after the oil retreats.
2. Arbitrage: Wait and see.
3. Options: Wait and see.
Corn/cornstarch
Researcher: Liu Dayong
期货从业证号：F03107370
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0018389
【Outer disk changes】
On Monday, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures rose, with the benchmark up 2.9% to close at 413.5 cents/bu.
【Important Information】
1. The first deputy minister of agriculture of Ukraine said on Monday that the ministry of agriculture of Ukraine wants to raise its forecast for the area sown to winter wheat in the event of rainfall. "If there is rain, we plan to adjust our forecast in October, as wheat planting is also slower than usual," said Taras Vysotskiy.
2. As of the week of September 19, 2024, the export inspection volume of United States corn was 1102826 tons, 568915 tons after the previous week, and the preliminary value was 521118 tons. In the week of September 21, 2023, United States corn export inspections were 710605 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume of United States corn has been 2143252 tonnes, compared with 2023149 tonnes in the same period of the previous year.
3. According to foreign media reports, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose to a high of more than two months on Monday, as freight rates of all ship types rose. The Baltic Dry Index rose 22 points to 1,999, its highest level since July 4.
4. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture of United States, as of the week of September 19, 2024, the export inspection volume of United States corn was 1102826 tons, which was revised to 568915 tons in the previous week, and the preliminary value was 521118 tons. In the week of September 21, 2023, United States corn export inspections were 710605 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume of United States corn has been 2143252 tonnes, compared with 2023149 tonnes in the same period of the previous year.
Shandong Shouguang Juneng Golden Corn: Price without ticket: 1.04 yuan above 15.5 moisture, 1.06 yuan below 15.5 moisture, 1 point. Ticket price: 1.045 yuan above 15.5 moisture, 1.065 yuan above 15.5 moisture, 1 point. The third drop in the price. A total of 2.5 cents.
[Logical Analysis]
U.S. corn rebounded at the bottom, and the weather is still uncertain, and U.S. corn still has room to rebound. The amount of corn in the northeast increased, and the spot corn continued to fall. The amount of corn in North China has increased sharply, the spot corn has fallen sharply, Shandong has fallen below 2,100 yuan/ton, the price of wheat is also weak, and the price gap between corn in Northeast China and corn in North China has narrowed. In the later stage, with the new corn in North China about to go on the market, the corn in North China will still fall. 01 corn short-term weak shock.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: 12 corn on the outer plate, rebounding at the bottom, you can continue to go long. 01 corn is currently on the sidelines.
2. Arbitrage: 01 corn and starch are between 380-420 short ideas.
3. Options: Wait and see.
Pig
Researcher: Chen Jiezheng
期货从业证号：F3045719
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0015458
【Related Information】
1. Pig prices: Pig prices stabilized and strengthened as a whole this morning, of which 17.5-17.6 yuan/kg in Northeast China, stable; 17.6-17.7 yuan/kg in North China, stable or up 0.1 yuan/kg; 17.8-18.9 yuan/kg in East China, up 0.1-0.2 yuan/kg; 17.6-18.1 yuan/kg in southwest China, stable; 18-19.1 yuan/kg in South China, stable;
2. Piglet sow price: As of the week of September 20, the national price of 7 kg piglets was 336.43 yuan / head, down 61.43 yuan / head from September 13, the price of 15 kg piglets was 549.29 yuan / head, down 65.71 yuan / head from September 13, and the price of 50 kg sows was 1651.43 yuan / head, flat from September 13;
3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: On September 23, the "200 index of wholesale prices of agricultural products" was 133.84, down 0.08 points, and the wholesale price index of "vegetable basket" products was 137.08, down 0.11 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 26.25 yuan/kg, down 1.5% from last Friday.
[Logical Analysis]
The pressure on the supply of live pigs continues to be released, and the operation is mainly weak
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: The discount on the disk is large, and it continues to be based on the idea of short selling
2. Arbitrage: Wait and see
3. Options: Far month put seagull options
peanut
Researcher: Liu Dayong
期货从业证号：F3045719
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0018389
【Important Information】
1. The price of miscellaneous rice in Cao County, Shandong Province is 3.80 yuan / catty. Some producing areas in Nanyang have seen their shipments improve, and the price of Baisha has increased slightly. A small amount of wheat stubble peanuts are on the market, and the price of currency rice is 4.1-4.2 yuan/catty. Huanglu store Baisha spring rice currency price 4.30-4.40 yuan/jin, Wolong Baisha currency rice price of about 4.30 yuan/jin, Runan new Baisha currency rice price 4.30-4.40 yuan/jin, wheat stubble 4.1-4.20 yuan/jin.
2. Last week, the arrival of Kaifeng Yihai was large, and the purchase price was lowered by 100 yuan/ton to 7700 yuan/ton. Junan factory transactions are mostly based on quality, and the Yuhuang factory acquires weak operation, and the price of oilseed rice is 7,700 yuan/ton. The purchase price of Jinsheng factory was reduced to 7,750 yuan/ton.
3. In terms of peanut oil, the oil mills have recently been mainly delivered, the new orders are limited, the price of peanut oil continues to run weakly, and the domestic first-class ordinary peanut oil price is 14,000 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small-pressed peanut oil market is about 17,100 yuan/ton.
4. The shipment of peanut meal is stable, some high-protein sources are shipped quickly, and the factory quotation is stable, with about 46 protein quotations of 3100-3200 yuan/ton.
5. As of September 20, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 46,126 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from last week. According to Mysteel's research, as of September 20, the weekly inventory of peanut oil of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 38,460 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from last week.
[Logical Analysis]
Peanuts fell in the new season and are currently stable at 4.1 yuan/catty. This year, the planting area of peanuts has increased, but the yield has decreased, traders' inventories are still high, and the end demand is still weak. Nigerian peanuts can be imported recently, which may affect domestic supply in the later period. The price of new crops is still falling, and the January and November peanuts rebounded yesterday, and the bottom may remain volatile in the short term.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: 01 peanut 7800-8400 shock, you can try more than 8400 short, currently wait-and-see.
2. Arbitrage: 1-4 peanuts are mainly reversed.
3. Options: Wait and see
Egg
Researcher: Liu Qiannan
期货从业证号：F3013727
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0014425
【Important Information】
1. Yesterday's average price in the main producing areas was 4.83 yuan/jin, down 0.32 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales area was 5.14 yuan/jin, down 0.32 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. Yesterday, there were 25 cars left in the Dongguan parking lot, 8 cars left in the No. 1 parking lot, and the egg prices in Beijing's major markets remained stable today, and the mainstream reference price in Beijing was 210 yuan / 44 catties, and the mainstream wholesale prices such as Shimen, Xinfadi and Huilongguan were 210 yuan / 44 catties; The mainstream wholesale price of eggs on the Great Ocean Road is 205-215, according to the high quality and low price, the arrival of 6 cars is normal, the transaction is flexible, and the goods are normal. Today, most of the mainstream prices in the country remain stable, the prices in Northeast Liaoning are stable, the prices in Jilin are stable, the egg prices in Heilongjiang are stable, the prices in Shanxi are stable, and the prices in Hebei are stable; Most of the mainstream prices in Shandong remain stable, the egg prices in Henan are stable, the prices of brown eggs in Hubei are stable, the prices in Jiangsu and Anhui are stable, and the prices of local eggs are high and low.
2. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of laying hens in the country in August was 1.288 billion, an increase of 11 million from the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, higher than previously expected. In August, the monthly emergence of layer seedlings (about 50% of the country) of the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was 43.95 million birds, an increase of 5.4% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year. Without considering the delay and centralized elimination, according to the previous supplementary data, it can be inferred that the approximate number of laying hens in September, October, November and December 2024 will be 1.285 billion, 1.274 billion, 1.281 billion and 1.291 billion.
3. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas of the country in the week of September 13 was 18.71 million, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week. According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring and statistics on the age of eliminated chickens in key producing areas across the country, the average age of eliminated chickens in the week of September 12 was 531 days, an increase of 1 day compared with the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data, as of September 19, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales area was 8,442 tons, an increase of 5.9% compared with last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data, as of September 19, the weekly average inventory of the production link was 0.95 days, an increase of 0.14 days from the inventory days last week, and the weekly average inventory of the circulation link was 0.96 days, an increase of 0.13 days from the previous week's inventory.
6. According to Zhuochuang data, as of September 19, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 1.85 yuan/catty, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/catty from the previous week; On September 13, the expected profit of laying hens was 19.09 yuan / feather, an increase of 0.36 yuan / kg from the previous week.
【Trading Logic】
It is expected that the egg supply side will continue to maintain a loose situation in September, the demand side is close to the National Day holiday, and considering that the current vegetable prices are still in a high position, it is expected that the spot price of eggs will have some support, and the spot price will likely continue to remain volatile.
Futures, considering that the January contract and the February contract are off-season contracts after the holiday, so in the future, under the influence of factors such as continued loose supply, weak post-holiday demand and low feed costs, the fundamentals of the January contract are bearish, but the recent macro factors have led to greater uncertainty in the price of corn and soybean meal, and the cost of feed is not excluded from the possibility of rising, and it is expected that the egg price will form a certain support in the short term.
On the whole, the current spot price is higher, and the short-term near-month contract may maintain a slightly stronger trend, but the medium and long-term trend considers that supply and demand are still weak, if the feed price rise can not be sustained, the future trend may return to weakness, if the feed price reversal rises, then the egg price center of gravity may also increase.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: At present, the spot price has fallen, and the long order in the early stage can gradually take profit.
2. Arbitrage: The November contract is expected to be relatively strong due to the strong impact of spot prices, and it is considered to be more than November and February.
3. Options: Consider selling put options and selling JD2501-P-3350.
apple
Researcher: Liu Qiannan
期货从业证号：F3013727
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0014425
【Important Information】
1. Inventory monitoring: As of September 19, 2024, the current storage capacity of cold storage in the country is about 255,400 tons, the destocking rate is 97.14%, and the total output of cold storage in this cycle (20240912-0918) is 133,500 tons. The speed of cold storage shipments decreased from last week and was slightly higher than the same period last year. Shandong cold storage storage capacity ratio of 4.52%, storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.89 percentage points, this week Shandong production area cold storage overall shipment speed slowed down slightly, shipments are mainly concentrated in the Mid-Autumn Festival before the shipment, merchants to the market delivery. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the overall shipment speed of cold storage in the production area slowed down slightly, and merchants moved to Taocun and other towns where merchants and goods were concentrated. The remaining volume of goods in other towns and towns is not large, and the existence of transfer packaging. E-commerce and export-friendly sources are in good shape. At present, most of the surplus goods in cold storage are the inventory of merchants, and the digestion of fruit and agricultural goods is basically completed. The storage capacity ratio of cold storage in Shaanxi was 0.66%, and the storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.78 percentage points. The remaining surplus goods in the cold storage of Shaanxi production area have been very small, and the merchants reserve the supply for the Mid-Autumn Festival before the Mid-Autumn Festival to be sent to the market for sale, and a very small amount of goods in the current cold storage. There are new season inventory sources such as Gala and early maturing Fuji. As of September 18, 2024, the inventory of apple cold storage in the country's main producing areas was 264,100 tons, a decrease of 65,200 tons from last week. The Mid-Autumn Festival stocking ended, and the shipment slowed down compared with last week. (mysteel)
2. Customs data: In August, the domestic export volume of fresh apples was about 83,000 tons, a large year-on-year increase, an increase of 16.9% year-on-year, and from the annual cumulative situation, the cumulative export volume from January to August was 577,000 tons, an increase of 36% year-on-year.
3. Zhuochuang: The price of apples in the production area is stable, the inventory supply is traded with the company, the transaction volume is acceptable, and the merchants favor the source of goods in Taocun and other towns, and there are fewer surplus goods in other producing areas. The supply of goods to the Red General has entered the later stage, the quality of the supply varies greatly, the proportion of good goods is small, the asking price of individual good goods fruit farmers is still high, and the low-quality supply is traded at a low price. The northwest producing area has entered the stage of bag picking, and the late-maturing Fuji green picking has returned to green, and the price of individual red fruits is higher. Most markets in the wholesale market are slow to ship during the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the market surplus is sufficient.
4. Profit: The profit of Qixia 80# first- and second-tier depositors in the week of September 19, 2024 was -1.8 yuan/jin, and -1.8 yuan/jin last week. (mysteel)。
5. Spot price: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia area of Yantai, Shandong Province is stable, and the recent transaction price of 3.5-3.8 yuan/jin purchased is 2.3 yuan/jin. There are few remaining good goods in the red generals, and the prices of very few high-end goods are stable, and tail futures are the mainstay. There is room for bargaining in the transaction of poor quality supply, and the price is discussed by quality. The buyers of apples sampled by Zhuochuang Information are mainly merchants and agents, and the sellers are mainly fruit farmers. Merchants purchase Red General 70# starting red fruit bid 2.2-2.9 yuan/jin, fruit farmers ask for 2.2-2.9 yuan/jin, and the mainstream transaction price range is 2.2-2.9 yuan/jin. The recent transaction price of apple merchants in Penglai area of Shandong Province is 2.3-3.0 yuan/jin for the purchase of goods of 3.5-4.0 yuan/jin, and the price is not much in terms of quality. The transaction price of general red fruit is 1.5-2.0 yuan / catty, and there are not many remaining red generals, so the price is based on quality. Zhuochuang Information sampling collection of apples buyers are mainly merchants and agents, and sellers are mainly cold storage. In the early stage, the bid price of the unified goods is around 2.3-3.0 yuan/jin, and the seller is in a hurry to ship, the price is 2.3-3.0 yuan/jin, and the transaction price range is 2.3-3.0 yuan/jin.
【Trading Logic】
The front-month contract may remain relatively strong due to the high price of early-maturing apples, but the main January contract is more dependent on the supply and demand of Fuji apples this year and the quality of later apples due to the late delivery time. Judging from the current situation, there is a high probability that Apple will have a bumper yield this year, and quality problems such as regreening are currently uncertain, therefore, the next half a month is a critical period for apple quality, if there is indeed a problem with the quality, the apple contract may maintain a relatively slightly strong trend, but if the quality problem is not big, there is a high probability that it will return to the supply and demand side, and the supply and demand situation of apples this year is that the supply and demand are relatively weak.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: At present, the spot price is high, and it is expected that the current position will be maintained in the short term.
2. Arbitrage: The price of the near-month contract is strong due to the influence of early-maturing apples, and the far-month contract is weak due to the impact of supply and demand.
3. Options: wait and see.
Cotton - cotton yarn
Researcher: Liu Qiannan
期货从业证号：F3013727
Investment Consulting Practitioner No.: Z0014425
【External Disk Impact】
Yesterday, ICE U.S. cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.22 cents/lb (0.30%) to 73.34 cents/lb.
【Important Information】
1. The purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang continued to rise steadily over the weekend; The mainstream purchase price of cotton seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is about 6.7-6.8 yuan/kg, and the higher purchase price is about 6.9-7 yuan/kg. Most of the domestic cotton transactions yesterday were light, and the basis was mainly locked; 23/24 Beijiang Machinery Mining 30/30B miscellaneous 3 within the transaction price of CF01 + 1500, inland warehouse.
2. According to the latest USDA weather daily, as of September 17, the drought degree and coverage index of the main U.S. cotton producing areas (92.8%) was 120, 78 lower than the same period last year, and 10 higher than last week; Texas' drought severity and coverage index was 116, down 181 from the same period last year and unchanged from last week. At present, the drought situation in the main cotton producing areas of the United States and Texas has improved.
3. According to the statistics released by AGM, the market volume of cotton in India fell by 64% year-on-year last week. In the week ending September 15, 2024, the weekly market volume of cotton in India was 14,200 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous week; India's cumulative cotton market in 2024/25 was 38,000 mt, down 77% year-on-year.
【Trading Logic】
On the supply side, it is still in an accommodative state. In terms of new cotton, this year's national cotton output is expected to be bumper this year, and the market is expected to produce about 6 million tons; Although the upstream ginning mills are not active and the cotton price expectation is poor, the recent increase in cotton prices has significantly increased the uncertainty of the new cotton scale. On the demand side, the domestic sales in August are acceptable, but the current increase in new orders is limited, and the downstream links are mainly used with buying. On the whole, the current cotton fundamentals are under pressure, but the current market focus is on the impact of macro interest rate cuts on commodities, and the upcoming new cotton purchase is expected to guide the market price. In recent times, the Federal Reserve has opened the road of interest rate cuts at the macro level, which has a more expected impact on commodities, and the macro impact of cotton in the short term is greater.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: At present, the fundamentals of U.S. cotton have not changed significantly, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates more than expected, and the overall trend of commodities has a strong performance. Zheng Mian's current fundamentals are under pressure, but with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut driving commodity prices, and most of the negative factors in the early stage have been reflected at the end of the session, it is expected that Zheng Mian may be dominated by strong shocks in the short term.
2. Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see.
3、期权:可考虑卖CF501-P-13200。
