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Mortgage rate cuts: the breath of 50 million households and the fog of the housing market
The picture comes from the Internet
"Finally relieved!" When the news of the central bank's announcement on September 24, 2024 that the interest rate on existing mortgages would be reduced, the circle of friends exploded instantly
This time, the central bank can be described as a bold move, not only to guide commercial banks to reduce the interest rate of existing housing loans to around the interest rate of new loans, which is expected to decrease by an average of about 0.5 percentage points, but also to reduce the minimum down payment ratio of second home loans at the national level from 25% to 15%.
In the midst of the cheers, some people kept thinking calmly: does the favorable policy mean that the "spring" of the real estate market is really coming?
The Temperature Behind the Numbers: A True Portrait of 50 Million Families
To answer this question, we must not only stare at the cold numbers, but also see the vivid faces behind the numbers, the family stories that carry hope and anxiety
50 million households, this is a huge number, behind it is 150 million people, are countless people fighting for their dreams, among them, there are parents who have left their homes for their children's education, there are young people who are struggling to take root in big cities, and there are middle-aged people who are working hard to improve the living environment
For them, the house is not only a cold reinforced concrete, but also a harbor of home, a dependence on life, and the high mortgage is like a boulder, which overwhelms them
"After paying off the mortgage every month, there is not much money left" Mr. Zhang, who works for an Internet company, took out a loan to buy a house in Beijing two years ago in order to provide better educational resources for his children
Ms. Li, who works in Shanghai, was catching up with the high interest rate when she bought a house a few years ago, but now, the spread between the old and new mortgages is getting wider and wider, which makes her feel very unfair
It is estimated that after the interest rate cut, the average annual reduction in family interest expenses can be reduced by 150 billion yuan, which may be used to improve life, may be used to invest in the future, and add a confidence and hope to their lives
The picture comes from the Internet
Favorable policies, but fog: where does the real estate market go from here?
The favorable policy has injected a shot in the arm for the real estate market, and we must also be soberly aware that the current real estate market is still facing many challenges
Market confidence is still fragile, after a long period of adjustment, the real estate market has entered a period of deep adjustment, housing prices have fallen, transaction volume has shrunk, developers have a tight capital chain and other problems still exist
The risks have not yet been fully cleared, especially the risk of guaranteed delivery, the problem of unfinished buildings, and the debt crisis of some real estate companies, which are still a sharp sword hanging over the market, restricting the recovery of market confidence
Thirdly, the external environment is complex and volatile, with factors such as slowing global economic growth, increasing inflationary pressures, and rising geopolitical risks all adding uncertainty to the real estate market
In this context, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the decline of the real estate market by relying only on policy stimulus, and it is necessary to make efforts in many ways to really get out of the trough
In addition to reducing mortgage interest rates, we can also consider introducing more targeted policy measures, such as reducing transaction taxes and fees, relaxing purchase and sale restrictions, and increasing investment in affordable housing
To speed up the resolution of market risks, it is necessary to take effective measures to prevent and resolve real estate market risks, maintain market stability, and set up a special fund for the disposal of unfinished building projects to protect the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers
More importantly, to promote the return of the real estate market to rationality, we must adhere to the positioning of "housing for living, not speculation", establish and improve the long-term mechanism of the real estate market, guide market expectations, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market
The dawn of "spring"? Experts predict future market trends
The picture comes from the Internet
Experts also have different views on the future of the real estate market
Optimists believe that with the release of favorable policies, the real estate market will gradually stabilize and pick up, and they point out that the current real estate market has the conditions to bottom out, and the support of policies will accelerate the pace of market recovery
Cautious people believe that the real estate market adjustment has not yet ended, and there is still great uncertainty about the future trend, and they are worried that the stimulus effect of the policy is limited, it will take time for market confidence to recover, and the real estate market may linger at the bottom for a while
There are also some experts who believe that the real estate market will show a divergent trend in the future, first-tier cities and core second-tier cities, due to the population inflow and economic development potential, the real estate market is expected to take the lead in stabilizing and picking up, while some third- and fourth-tier cities, due to population loss and insufficient industrial support, the real estate market adjustment pressure is still greater
Think rationally, respond positively: embracing a new era in the real estate market
In the face of an uncertain future, we must not only maintain a sense of awe for the market, but also be confident in the future
For home buyers, it is necessary to rationally analyze their own needs and market situation, avoid blindly following the trend, and choose developers with good reputation and strong strength to avoid the risk of falling into unfinished buildings
For investors, it is necessary to carefully assess investment risks, avoid blindly chasing up and down, and choose high-quality investment targets, such as high-quality real estate in core areas and emerging industrial parks with development potential
For the government, it is necessary to continue to adhere to the positioning of "housing for living, not speculation", strengthen market supervision, maintain market order, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market
The real estate market is a complex system, its development is affected by a variety of factors, policy adjustment, is only one of the aspects, we believe that with the continuous development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the real estate market will eventually find a new balance and usher in a more healthy and stable development
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