Sources: All information stated in this article is based on reliable information, and is summarized at the end of this article
The long-awaited adjustment of the stock mortgage interest rate is finally here!
With the announcement of the governor of the central bank at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on September 24, the interest rate on existing mortgages and the down payment ratio for second homes have both been lowered.
So, how big is this adjustment? What impact will it have on the property market? In particular, what are the benefits for families with existing mortgages?
The inclusiveness of the new policy
Before answering the above questions, we need to understand in advance what the interest rate of existing mortgages means, and why many people have been calling for it to be lowered.
To put it simply, the interest rate applied to the unpaid part of the personal housing loan issued by the bank before the introduction of the new housing loan policy is the so-called stock housing loan interest rate.
In contrast to the interest rate of existing mortgages, it is the interest rate of new home loans. Before this adjustment, there was a relatively large difference in interest rates between the two.
The former is generally around 3.9%, and the latter is generally around 3.2%. Depending on the specific policies of individual banks, this gap sometimes widens.
And this seemingly small gap of 70 to 80 basis points is a big extra burden for the common people.
In particular, this interest rate gap also means that it is unfair to some extent. For individuals who have previously purchased a house, it is equivalent to buying first and suffering a loss first.
Therefore, the policy will reduce the interest rate of existing housing by 0.5%, that is, 50 basis points, so that the interest rate of existing housing loans and new home purchases will be maintained at a basic balanced level.
This move can be called the desire of the people, while reducing the pressure and burden of the stock of housing loans, it also takes care of the fairness of the buyer's market.
According to the central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, the number of households benefiting from the reduction of interest rates on existing mortgages is about 50 million. It could benefit about 150 million people, and the total annual household interest expenses could be reduced to about 150 billion.
Zhang Dawei, an analyst at Centaline Real Estate, explained more specifically: suppose the previous stock house buyers had a loan amount of 1 million yuan and repaid in 30 years. After the implementation of this policy, the average monthly payment will be reduced by nearly 300 yuan per month, and the interest expense can be reduced by no less than 100,000 yuan in 30 years.
Therefore, the degree of benefit of the interest rate reduction policy for existing housing is not deep, and the scope of benefits is not wide.
Another policy is about the down payment ratio for second homes, which has been significantly reduced from the original minimum of 25% to 15%. At this point, the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes has reached a uniformity.
However, this policy has won unanimous applause from the policy of lowering the interest rate of existing housing, and it has attracted some market controversy.
Some people believe that such a large reduction in the down payment ratio of the second house will inevitably bury the hidden danger of large-scale supply interruption in the future while stimulating market transactions.
However, from another point of view, this concern is actually a bit overblown. Because those who can afford to buy a second home, most of them buy improved housing.
In theory, these groups of people are much smaller than those who buy their first home, whether it is loan risk or repayment pressure.
In the vernacular, under normal circumstances, only people who are not short of money, or at least think they are confident enough to repay their mortgage on time, are likely to consider buying a second improved home.
Of course, theory is theory, and the implementation process must be indispensable to the detailed pre-loan investigation of each commercial bank, as well as the strict control of risks after the loan. That's another topic.
However, when taken together, the central bank's two policies seem to be aimed at stabilizing housing prices and housing prices, especially to stimulate second-home transactions.
It is also not just to reduce the pressure and burden on the stock of loans, and to adjust the balance of interest rates in the buyer's market.
They should have something else to do!
Other effects of the policy
As part of the central bank's policy package, what appears to be a policy package for the real estate market often complements other areas as well.
For example, the policy of lowering the interest rate of the stock mortgage is ostensibly to reduce the pressure and burden on the buyers of the stock of housing, but in fact, it also has the effect of stimulating consumption.
Taking the data of the previous central bank governor and real estate analyst as an example, the nearly 300 yuan per household saved in interest expenses per month is not a huge effect on individuals.
People are likely to take these "unplanned" spare money to increase some inconspicuous daily consumption.
However, if this money is superimposed by 50 million households and 150 million people, it will be 150 billion yuan of annual consumption for the entire economy.
Such a huge amount of money is enough to support the operation and production of many enterprises, as well as the employment of many people. In the same way, the effect of the reduction of the down payment ratio for the second home is likely to be much greater than the reduction of the interest rate of the existing mortgage.
Because 10% of the funds is not a small amount, assuming that the down payment of 1 million for a second house originally required 250,000, and now it only needs 150,000, how will the remaining 100,000 be disposed of?
Ordinary consumption does not need so much, not to mention that most people who buy a second house will not lack money for daily consumption.
Then they will naturally find ways to make money in the investment process, even if it is just to earn a little interest on the later repayment of the loan. In this way, the financial market will attract a certain amount of hot money and living water, so that some enterprises can obtain corresponding liquidity.
Therefore, the analysis of the combination of the two shows that the reduction of the stock mortgage interest rate belongs to the accumulation of small into more, and ultimately promotes the production and circulation of commodities by stimulating consumption, thereby promoting the internal circulation of the economy.
Reducing the down payment ratio of the second house belongs to revitalizing the social stock of funds, and finally injecting fresh blood into the enterprise through capital drainage.
Although the above is a simple speculation on the additional effects of these two measures, the main thrust of the measures should coincide with the intentions of the central bank. After all, the purpose and effect of all measures and policies to boost the real estate market now can only be to stabilize the market.
Only when the real estate market is stable can the economic chassis be stabilized. With a solid economic base, the top priority is to stimulate consumption.
When consumption is boosted, business operations and production will follow, and the internal circulation of the entire economy will be able to proceed smoothly. Only at this time will the problems of the real estate market no longer be a big headache.
Of course, all policy measures are subject to verification of their effectiveness after they are implemented.
According to the latest news, since the policy was announced on September 24, a number of banks have actively carried out implementation plan research for the first time.
It is believed that it will not be long before buyers of existing houses and second homes will enjoy the benefits brought by the new policy. The consumption index, as the "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet", will also clearly inform us of the effect of the policy!
Resources:
The interest rate on the stock mortgage will be reduced by 0.5%, and the interest on the 1 million loan will be reduced by 100,000 yuan in 30 years - cover news
Central Bank: Lower the interest rate on existing housing loans, and reduce the minimum down payment ratio for second home loans from 25% to 15% - The Paper
How big is the impact of the further reduction of the interest rate of the existing mortgage? Expert: A comprehensive look at the package of new policies - Yicai
Pan Gongsheng: The reduction of the interest rate of the existing housing loan is expected to benefit 150 million people, and the average annual reduction of household interest expenses is about 150 billion yuan-Daily Economic News
Central Bank: The reduction of the interest rate on existing housing loans is expected to benefit 150 million people-CCTV News