Yuyuan Tan Tian丨Mainland tourists travel freely, and the influence of the "Golden Gate Model" appears

Source: Yuyuan Tan Tian WeChat

On September 23, 2024, after more than four years, the first mainland tour group successfully concluded its trip to Kinmen. Two days later, on September 25, 27 mainland residents set off for Kinmen for individual tours, which meant that Kinmen resumed free travel for mainland tourists.

From proposing to build a cross-strait integrated development demonstration zone to maritime law enforcement in the waters near Kinmen, in the past year or so, the mainland has adopted many new governance methods against Kinmen, and has extended the "Kinmen model" to the whole of Taiwan through practice, which has also made Kinmen a fulcrum for observing changes in the situation of the Taiwan issue.

Now, what does it mean to reopen Kinmen for free travel for mainland tourists?

As a matter of fact, mainland tourists visiting Kinmen on their own are an important perspective from which to observe cross-strait relations.

In 2011, after cross-strait consultations, mainland tourists began to travel freely to Kinmen through the "mini three links". In 2020, the DPP authorities unilaterally closed the "mini three links", and at the same time, the mainland also stopped issuing personal travel endorsements to Taiwan. This reopening is the restoration of this passage.

Lord Tan learned that this opening was not easy to come by. The reason why I say this is because the political environment in Taiwan today is very different from when Kinmen was first opened to free travel.

At that time, cross-strait exchanges were in the midst of a growing boom. And this time there is a different background, the DPP authorities are stepping up their policy efforts to separate Taiwan from the mainland:

Since 2020, the DPP authorities have set up various obstacles, such as canceling direct cross-strait flights and prohibiting travel agencies from organizing tours, while prohibiting mainland residents from traveling to Taiwan. After Lai Qingde came to power, the DPP authorities tried to further weaken the identity between the people on both sides of the strait through "de-Sinicization" and other means.

In the past period, in the process of gradually reopening Taiwan to mainland tourists, the DPP authorities have also made many stumbling blocks.

This phenomenon is especially acute for sea routes.

In order to resume group travel by mainland residents to Taiwan, Taiwan tourism operators have applied to the DPP authorities for boat flights about 20 times, but all of them have been unsuccessful. Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" also rejected all charter plans submitted by Taiwan's tourism industry on the grounds of so-called "security concerns."

In the dispute over the charter plan, there is a detail that Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" once used the phrase "you can take a plane, but you can't take a boat" to explain the so-called "security concerns."

Such a reason has been on the lips of Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" since the "fishing boat incident" occurred in Kinmen in February this year. In other words, worries about the "safety" of maritime navigation have become an excuse for Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" to obstruct cross-strait personnel exchanges.

But in the eyes of shipowners who sail between the two sides of the strait, is there really a so-called insecurity?

Lord Tan noted that Taiwan shipowners, which specialize in the Xiamen-Jin "mini three links" passenger ship route, have spoken out twice in the past six months. Comparing the two voices, we can see a subtle shift in their concerns:

In February, after the "fishing boat incident" in Kinmen, the owner of the "mini three links" mentioned that the stability of Xiamen-Jinmen waters directly affected the operations of shipping, sightseeing yachts and fishing boats.

Half a year later, the mainland announced that it would resume tourism for Fujian residents to Kinmen, and the focus of attention of the owners of the "mini three links" has become how many mainland tourists will come and how to increase the number of flights.

Behind this shift is the fact that these shipowners' concerns about the safety of maritime navigation have been completely eliminated.

From this change, it can be seen that the first significance of the further extension of the "Kinmen model" is that the mainland strengthens law enforcement and gives Taiwan compatriots, including Kinmen, a greater sense of security.

In this regard, Tan Zhu analyzed in detail that in the past six months, the law enforcement scope of China's sea-related departments has extended from the Xiajin Sea to the east of the central part of the Taiwan Strait. In this process, the relevant departments have focused on strengthening the maritime traffic control and emergency rescue capabilities of the Taiwan Strait. These measures are to ensure the safe navigation of civilian ships in the Taiwan Strait.

The mainland has taken action to "slap the face" in the face of the rhetoric of the so-called functional departments on the island.

In this process, the "work mode" of some so-called functional departments on the island is also changing.

The signs of loosening on the island in the current reopening of Kinmen can be traced back to the resolution passed by Taiwan's "Legislative Yuan" on 16 July this year to allow mainland tourists to travel to Kinmen, Matsu, and Penghu through the "mini three links."

This move comes just after the Fujian Coast Guard began to carry out regular law enforcement inspections in the waters near Kinmen.

Correspondingly, at this time, in view of the resumption of some cross-strait maritime passenger lines, voices began to appear on the island to eliminate the so-called security factors.

With policies in place, they also need to be implemented and implemented. At this time, however, Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" and other functional departments began a "work mode" of inaction.

At that time, Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" only showed a cold attitude toward the resolution of Taiwan's "Legislative Yuan," saying only a word of respect verbally, and did not take any action to review the current policy.

So, since when has the reopening of Kinmen really been on the agenda?

Looking at the statements made by Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" on Kinmen over the past two months or so, Tan Zhu found that at a certain point in time, Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" has undergone a marked change in its attitude toward Kinmen's opening up:

On 24 August, Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" issued a "plan for the resumption of cross-strait sightseeing." With this "tourism plan" as a basis, Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" began to relax its grip on Kinmen's various requests for mainland tourists, and changed from vague remarks to expressing support for all of them.

Just two days before the release of this "tourism plan," representatives of Kinmen came to Beijing to talk about how to resume tourism to Kinmen for Fujian residents. Moreover, the two sides reached quite a lot of consensus during this visit.

In other words, this "tourism plan" was made overnight after the mainland communicated with the representatives of the Kinmen people.

Why is it that the mainland's communication with Kinmen's public opinion deputies can bring about the change of Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council"?

Li Fei, a distinguished professor at the Taiwan Research Institute of Xiamen University, told Lord Tan:

On the one hand, Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" needs to follow the so-called mainland policy of the DPP authorities; on the other hand, if Taiwan and the mainland are completely cut off, Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" will become an empty shell command, and this will not be beneficial to them.

It is precisely because of such contradictions that Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" has adopted a vague tactic of not supporting or opposing many issues.

The opening of Kinmen this time also involves two departments on the island -- the departments in charge of communications and the economy, and they, like Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council," are in a contradictory situation.

Li Fei told Lord Tan:

Taiwan's transportation department is responsible for Taiwan's shipowners, but if the ship does not go ashore, it means that Taiwan's shipowners have been losing money. In this sense, the resumption of cross-strait shipping is in the interest of Taiwan's transportation department, but Taiwan's transportation department is also under pressure to follow the so-called mainland policy of the DPP authorities.

This has led to Taiwan's transportation department refusing to approve cross-strait maritime passenger routes on the grounds that "there is no demand."

In the economic sphere, a similar narrative exists.

According to the DPP authorities, in the three years before the suspension of the "mini three links," mainland tourists in Taiwan were declining year by year, while tourists from Southeast Asia, Japan and other places in Taiwan remained. The implication is that the mainland's contribution to Taiwan's tourism industry is declining.

Against this background, Taiwan's local public opinion representatives and relevant practitioners have taken the initiative to bypass the DPP authorities and communicate directly with the mainland, which has become a way to eliminate these false narratives and greatly reduced the space for these so-called functional departments on the island to be ambiguous.

Kinmen's public opinion deputies and relevant practitioners are responsible for putting forward specific plans for opening up, and the mainland directly agrees with Kinmen on how to open up, and at this time, the so-called functional departments on the island have no choice but to take into account the voice of public opinion.

Behind this is the second meaning of the extension of the "Kinmen model", strengthening communication to give Taiwan compatriots, including Kinmen people, more sense of gain -- the island has a call, and the mainland responds. The people on the island, who have a greater sense of gain, are also working harder to "push" the DPP authorities.

The reason why such a "reversal" can be completed is based on a fact:

Cross-strait integration and development has formed an unstoppable trend, and the loss of connection with the mainland in recent years has made the Taiwan people miserable.

This problem can be found in the details of the visit of the Kinmen delegation.

Mr. Tan noted that this time there were not only representatives of the tourism and food industries, but also the delegation visited BAIC's new energy vehicle park and other places during the visit.

These areas cover Kinmen's traditional advantageous industries, as well as those that Kinmen hopes to focus on in the future.

The traditional advantageous industries mentioned here, including tourism and food industry - Kinmen is subject to geographical and demographic conditions, the tertiary industry is relatively developed, and the output value in the past accounts for more than 70%, and the secondary industry also focuses on the development of the tertiary industry, which is concentrated in the food processing industry, mainly producing tourism souvenirs.

So, why did the Kinmen delegation also visit the mainland's technological innovation industrial park?

Wang Yong, director of the Institute of Economics at the Taiwan Research Institute of Xiamen University, told Tan Zhu:

In the past few years, in the process of promoting cooperation with the mainland, Kinmen has also actively absorbed the industrial extension of Taiwan Island. Specifically, Kinmen has become a transit point for two-way trade and investment between the two sides of the strait, and by providing financial, legal, real estate and other services, the mainland can obtain direct cooperation with Taiwan through Kinmen.

Gammon is opening up new growth opportunities for the simple reason that the development model around the tourism industry remains uncertain for the foreseeable future.

For example, the new passenger building in Kinmen is expected to open next year, and the expansion of the Kinmen county government will cost NT$3.03 billion, equivalent to 20% of its annual government budget, but if Kinmen does not open as scheduled this year, it will be a wasted effort.

Against this background, the mainland and Kinmen have begun to actively look for new points of cooperation to find ways to circumvent the factors of instability in cross-strait relations brought about by the DPP authorities.

This is also the third meaning of the extension of the "Kinmen model", promoting industrial integration to give Taiwan compatriots, including Kinmen people, greater room for development, so that cross-strait mutual support, integration and mutual communication can truly take root at the grassroots level, and build the foundation of cross-strait relations.

In this regard, the mainland's layout can be traced back a little earlier.

The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Supporting Fujian to Explore a New Road for Cross-Strait Integrated Development and Build a Cross-Strait Integrated Development Demonstration Zone" issued last year supports Xiamen and Kinmen to accelerate integrated development. This year, when introducing the progress of the implementation of the "Opinions" one year ago, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council focused on mentioning the registration and landing of the mainland's first cross-strait industrial investment fund initiated by Taiwan businessmen in Xiamen.

This fund invests in high-end manufacturing and information technology such as energy storage and new energy materials, corresponding to the key areas in which the DPP authorities restrict Taiwan businessmen's investment in the mainland.

Not long ago, Wang Yong just visited the industrial park in Suzhou and the Taiwanese investment zone in Kunshan, and he shared his first-line observations with Tan Zhu:

Taiwan businessmen's investment in the local area is still very hot, including chip manufacturing, machinery, pharmaceutical and other enterprises, and their investment in the local area is operating normally. In the past, these Taiwan businessmen were guided by the policies of the DPP authorities, and they had moved to transfer investment to Southeast Asia and other places, but after they went, they found that the cost of investment in these areas was very high. Comparatively speaking, the mainland is relatively friendly to Taiwan businessmen's investment in terms of system and law, so they are willing to come back.

In other words, no matter how much the DPP authorities guide, they cannot change the basic fact that relying on the mainland for development is still the best choice for Taiwan.

Against this background, with Kinmen as the fulcrum, the mainland is establishing new geographical and institutional connections with Taiwan and breaking through the barriers set by the DPP authorities.

Take this cross-strait industrial investment fund initiated by Taiwan businessmen as an example. Wang Yong told Lord Tan:

By following the channel of investment funds set up by Taiwan businessmen on their own, they can technically circumvent the impact of the DPP authorities' "de-Sinicization" policy.

No matter what obstacles the DPP authorities set up and what narratives they use to smear cross-strait cooperation, the process of cross-strait integration and development is always moving forward, and it is also receiving a positive response from the people on the island.

As the mainland and the people on the island get closer and closer, the options left to the DPP authorities will only become fewer and fewer. The fact that the DPP authorities were "forced" to relax their so-called mainland policy in Kinmen is a harbinger. [Source: Yuyuan Tan Tian WeChat public account]