Hot Spotlight //
1. The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next step of economic work. The meeting stressed the need to intensify the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies. It is necessary to issue and use ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds to give better play to the leading role of government investment. It is necessary to lower the reserve requirement ratio and implement a forceful interest rate cut. To promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, the construction of commercial housing should be strictly controlled incrementally, the stock should be optimized, the quality should be improved, and the "white list" project loans should be increased. It is necessary to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate on existing housing loans, and pay close attention to improving the land, fiscal, taxation, and financial policies. It is necessary to strive to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the blocking points for social security, insurance, wealth management and other funds to enter the market. It is necessary to support the mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, steadily promote the reform of public funds, and study and introduce policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to help enterprises tide over difficulties and further standardize the law enforcement and supervision behaviors related to enterprises. It is necessary to promulgate a law on the promotion of the private economy to create a good environment for the development of the non-public sector of the economy. It is necessary to combine the promotion of consumption with the benefit of the people's livelihood, promote the income of low- and middle-income groups, and improve the consumption structure. It is necessary to cultivate a new type of consumption format. It is necessary to support and regulate the development of social forces in the old-age care and childcare industries, and pay close attention to improving the system of childbirth support policies. It is necessary to increase the efforts to attract and stabilize investment, step up the promotion and implementation of reform measures such as foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, and further optimize the market-oriented, law-based, and international first-class business environment.
2. The Central Financial Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Entry of Medium and Long-term Funds into the Market", and the main measures include three aspects: first, to build and cultivate a capital market ecology that encourages long-term investment; the second is to vigorously develop equity public funds and support the steady development of private securities investment funds; The third is to focus on improving the supporting policies and systems for all kinds of medium and long-term funds to enter the market. The "Guiding Opinions" proposes to enrich the types of investable assets of public funds and establish a fast approval channel for ETF index funds. Establish and improve the long-term assessment mechanism of more than three years for medium and long-term funds such as commercial insurance funds and various types of pensions. Break down the institutional barriers that affect the long-term investment of insurance funds, and enrich the long-term investment model of commercial insurance funds. Improve the investment policy system of the national social security fund and the basic pension insurance fund, support qualified employers to open up individual investment options for enterprise annuities, and encourage enterprise annuity fund managers to explore and carry out differentiated investment. Encourage bank wealth management and trust funds to actively participate in the capital market.
3. The Hefei Municipal Joint Investigation Team reported on the investigation of the "Three Sheep" live broadcast and said that it planned to decide to confiscate the illegal gains and fine the Three Sheep Company with a total of 68.9491 million yuan. In view of the problems existing in the live broadcast of the Three Sheep Company, it was ordered to suspend operation and rectify within a time limit, and bear relevant legal responsibilities. The Douyin E-commerce Security Center announced that it has suspended the broadcast of the account of "Three Sheep" since September 21, and will further urge it to actively rectify and properly solve the after-sales compensation of relevant consumers. Three Sheep issued a statement saying that it fully accepts the investigation and handling opinions and punishment results of the joint investigation team, and is willing to bear relevant legal responsibilities; We will carry out a comprehensive internal reorganization.
Global Markets //
1. The three major United States stock indexes closed up across the board, with the Dow up 0.62% at 42175.11, the S&P 500 up 0.4% at 5745.37, hitting another all-time high, and the Nasdaq up 0.6% at 18190.29. Dow and Caterpillar rose more than 3%, leading the Dow. The Wind United States TAMAMA Technology Index rose 0.1%, while Google and Apple rose slightly. Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Fang Duoduo rising nearly 110% and Gaotu Group rising more than 27%.
2. The three major European stock indexes closed higher, with Germany's DAX index up 1.69% at 19,238.36 points, a record closing high; France's CAC 40 index rose 2.33% to 7,742.09 points, and United Kingdom's FTSE 100 index rose 0.2% to 8,284.91 points.
3. Major Asia-Pacific stock indexes closed mostly higher. The India SENSEX30 Index rose 0.78% to 85,836.12 points, once again refreshing a record high. Korea's Kospi rose 2.9% to 2,671.57. The Nikkei 225 rose 2.79% to 38,925.63. Australia's S&P 200 rose 0.95% to 8,203.8 points. New Zealand's S&P 50 rose 2.18% to 12,491.58. The FTSE Singapore Straits Index fell 0.03% to 3582.23. The FTSE Malaysia Composite Index fell 0.12% to 1671.32.
4. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, COMEX gold futures rose 0.39% to $2695.1 / ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.91% to $32.31 / ounce.
5. International oil prices fell across the board, with the U.S. oil November contract falling 3.2% to $67.46 per barrel. Brent oil December contract fell 2.76% to $70.89 a barrel.
6. Most of London's base metals closed up, LME copper rose 2.82% to $10,090 / ton, LME zinc rose 3.22% to $3,094 / ton, LME nickel fell 0.24% to $16,755 / ton, LME aluminum rose 3.27% to $2,621.5 / ton, LME tin rose 1.08% to $32,450 / ton, LME lead rose 1.93% to $2,137 / ton.
7. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down across the board, with soybean futures falling 1.23% to 1040.25 cents per bushel; Corn futures fell 0.54% to 413 cents a bushel, while wheat futures fell 0.98% to 583.5 cents a bushel.
8. European bond yields closed mixed, with United Kingdom's 10-year yield up 2 basis points at 4.008%, France's 10-year yield up 1.2 basis points at 2.975%, Germany's 10-year yield up 0.7 basis points at 2.178%, Italy's 10-year yield down 4.2 basis points at 3.479%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 1.5 basis points at 2.957%.
9. U.S. Treasury yields mostly closed higher, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 7 basis points at 3.637%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 5.8 basis points at 3.554%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 4.3 basis points at 3.573%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 1 basis point at 3.8%, and the 30-year Treasury yield down 0.9 basis points at 4.134%.
10. At the end of New York, the dollar index fell 0.36% to 100.56, most of the non-US currencies rose, the euro rose 0.4% to 1.1177, the pound rose 0.68% to 1.3415, the Australian dollar rose 1.06% to 0.6896, the dollar rose 0.04% to 144.82, the dollar fell 0.49% to 0.8462, and the offshore yuan rose 598 basis points to 6.9730 against the dollar.
Macro//
1. The central bank held a video conference to speed up the introduction of financial incremental policy measures and implement various policy measures one by one. It is necessary to strengthen departmental coordination, set up relevant work teams, and make concerted efforts throughout the system to effectively promote the sustained economic recovery and high-quality financial development.
2. On September 26, the central bank launched a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 292 billion yuan, with an operating interest rate of 1.85%. Wind data shows that 523.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day.
3. Ministry of Commerce: From January to August, the mainland's foreign non-financial direct investment was 94.09 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%; The turnover of foreign contracted projects was 97.34 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5%; The value of new contracts was 149.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%.
4. The Ministry of Commerce announced that Canada will impose tariffs and other restrictive measures on the import of related electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products from China, and the Ministry of Commerce has decided to launch an anti-discrimination investigation on Canada's relevant measures.
5. More than 100 major projects have been signed at the 21st China-ASEAN Expo, the total trade volume of the cooperation agreement between China and Malaysia has reached nearly 43 billion yuan for the bulk commodity project of "Two Countries and Two Parks", and more than 190 cooperation intentions have been promoted at the ASEAN-China-Japan-South Korea (10+3) Industrial Chain and Supply Chain Docking Conference.
Domestic Stock Market //
1. On Thursday, A-shares opened the soaring mode in the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index regained 3,000 points strongly, and more than 5,100 shares rose throughout the day. New energy significantly underperformed the market. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.61% to 3000.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.44%, the ChiNext Index rose 4.42%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 2.97%, the Science and Technology 50 rose 3.87%, Wind All A rose 4.01%, and Wind A500 rose 4.39%. The market turnover was 1.17 trillion yuan, exceeding one trillion yuan for two consecutive days.
2. The three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks strengthened unilaterally throughout the day, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 4.16% at 19,924.58 points, the highest since August last year, the Hang Seng Technology Index up 7.27%, and the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index up 4.75%; The market turnover was 302.87 billion Hong Kong dollars, a two-and-a-half-year high. The weighted sectors strengthened across the board, with large consumption, real estate, and technology leading the gains, with Longfor Group soaring 28%. Southbound funds bought a net of HK$5.993 billion, Alibaba received a net purchase of HK$5.86 billion, and CNOOC was a net seller of HK$1.1 billion.
3. The regulatory authorities have recently issued a notice in the industry, requiring securities companies to strengthen the use and management of "stock recommendation software", prevent related business risks, and effectively protect the rights and interests of investors. Securities firms are required to improve the access review mechanism for software tools, do a good job in risk disclosure and information disclosure, and strengthen information protection and data security management.
4. Morgan Stanley said that from a technical point of view, China's CSI 300 index may still have about 10% upside in the short term. This forecast is based on the bank's analysis of the cost of borrowing for China's relending program (2.25%) and the current dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index (2.46%).
5. Kweichow Moutai disclosed the latest list of shareholders, as of September 20, the holdings of many index funds have increased compared with the end of the second quarter. Among them, the holdings of ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF increased by 2,118,700 shares, the holdings of Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF increased by 3,536,000 shares, and the holdings of E Fund CSI 300 ETF increased by 2,645,500 shares.
6. Following Yawei Software, since this week, four companies such as Greenstone, Fengdao Food, Xingyang Technology, and Jindayu have announced plans to "cancel orders" from the IPO queue of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and many companies said that the decision was made based on the company's strategic development and changes in the capital market environment.
7. After the release of the "Six Mergers and Acquisitions", the capital market is responding quickly. According to the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the application for mergers and acquisitions and restructuring of Qingdao Port was officially accepted, which is also the first case to be accepted after the release of the "Six Articles on Mergers and Acquisitions". On the same day, the restructuring project of Jiejie Microelectronics, a listed company on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, was registered and took effect, becoming the first restructuring project registered and effective in the whole market after the new policy.
8. Ali Jingdong is open to each other. Taobao Tmall will soon be officially connected to JD Logistics, which is expected to be launched in mid-October. At the same time, JD.com will also officially access Alipay payment, which is expected to be launched on the eve of Double 11. In addition, Jingdong will also be connected to Cainiao Express and Cainiao Station.
9. The Taiwan Weighted Index closed up 0.43% at 22,858.81 points.
Finance//
1. According to regulatory sources, the first two phases of the rate reform of the public offering industry have been completed, and the third phase will be completed by the end of this year. The third phase will focus on standardizing the fees in the sales process. With the implementation of all reform measures, the comprehensive fee rate of public funds will be reduced by 18%, saving investors about 45 billion yuan per year.
2. According to data released by the Asset Management Association of China, as of the end of the second quarter, the total scale of fund, securities and futures asset management products reached 70.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan in a single quarter, exceeding 70 trillion yuan for the first time. Among them, public funds contributed most of the incremental scale, and the scale of private funds decreased by 200 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter.
Housing//
1. Poly Development fired the first shot of "price protection"! A number of project companies under the central enterprise Poly Development have launched "price protection" activities in the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", specifically involving real estate in Wenzhou, Xi'an, Sichuan, Jinan, Chengdu, Guangdong and other cities, most of which are high-end projects in the core areas of the city.
2. Shenzhen successfully sold the A001-0219 parcel of land in Bao'an with "the highest price wins", attracting a total of 9 real estate companies to participate in the auction, with a total of more than 80 rounds of quotations. In the end, Poly Real Estate won the bid at a total price of 2.82 billion yuan, with a starting price of 2.08 billion yuan and a premium rate of 35.58%.
3. Hangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Industry Association announced the launch of the "old for new" activity of commercial housing to promote housing consumption and meet the housing needs of citizens.
Industry//
1. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a centralized signing ceremony for key projects of professional integration of central enterprises, with a total of 12 groups of 26 units signing professional integration projects, covering power batteries, mineral resources, artificial intelligence and other key fields, including a total of 18 central enterprises.
2. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other seven departments jointly issued a notice to stabilize the production of beef and dairy cattle, and required to accelerate the implementation of the basic cow herd expansion and quality improvement project. Promote "student drinking milk" and encourage qualified localities to boost milk consumption through the issuance of consumption vouchers and other means.
3. The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference to introduce that China and the EU agreed to continue to promote the negotiation of the electric vehicle price commitment agreement, and are fully committed to reaching a mutually acceptable solution through friendly dialogue and consultation.
4. According to data released by the China Electricity Council, as of the end of August, the installed capacity of new energy power generation in mainland China was 1.27 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than 40% of the total installed power generation capacity, reaching 40.7%.
5. Ministry of Water Resources: From January to August, the national water conservancy construction completed an investment of 801.94 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7% on the basis of the high level in the same period last year, and a new high.
6. "Fat Donglai will no longer adjust and reform" has continued to ferment recently. In this regard, Yu Donglai, chairman of Fat Donglai, responded positively that the help of Yonghui and BBK will continue for about two years, but no longer send teams to new enterprises.
7. According to data from the Japan Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Association, the sales of Japan-made chip equipment in August were 351.058 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 22%, showing growth for the eighth consecutive month and a double-digit increase for five consecutive months.
Overseas//
1. According to the Global Digital Trade Development Report 2024, the total value of global digital trade will increase from US$6.02 trillion in 2021 to US$7.13 trillion in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 8.8%. The European Union, United States, and China rank among the top three in the world in terms of digital trade.
2. The minutes of the July meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that Japan's policymakers were widely divided on the pace and magnitude of further interest rate hikes by the central bank, highlighting the great uncertainty about the timing of the next rise in Japan's borrowing costs.
3. According to multiple sources, dovish policymakers at the ECB are gearing up to push interest rates next month after a series of lower-than-expected economic data, but the move is likely to be resisted by hawks.
4. The Switzerland central bank cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1%, the third rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. Switzerland's central bank lowered its inflation expectations and believes further policy rate cuts may be needed in the coming quarters.
5. The Council of the European Union adopted the Internal Market Emergency and Recovery Act, which aims to provide a structured framework for anticipating, preparing for and responding to major disruptions within the EU internal market, such as the energy crisis.
6. The Ministry of Strategy and Finance of Korea revised its tax revenue forecast for 2024, and the central tax revenue is expected to be 337.7 trillion won this year, 29.6 trillion won less than expected, and less than the record low central tax revenue (344.1 trillion won) last year.
7. United States' real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3% annualized quarter-on-quarter, in line with market expectations, with the previously announced revised value of 3% and the preliminary value of 2.8%. The final core PCE price index was 2.8%, in line with expectations and revisions, and the preliminary reading was 2.9%.
8. United States the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 01,000 to 218,000 last week, the lowest since May this year, and is expected to rise to 223,000. The number of continuing jobless claims edged higher to 1.834 million in the previous week.
9. United States durable goods orders in August were flat from the preliminary value, with market expectations falling by 2.7% and a significant cooling from the previous value of 9.8%, mainly dragged down by lower orders for commercial aircraft.
International Stock Market //
1. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising nearly 11%, the largest one-day increase since 2022, Fang Duoduo rising nearly 110%, Gaotu Group rising more than 27%, Good Future rising more than 23%, Shell rising more than 20%, Lufax Holdings, Huazhu rising more than 16%, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, iQiyi, Bilibili rising more than 15%, Yum China, JD.com rising more than 14%, Pinduoduo, Kingsoft Cloud rising more than 13%.
2. Artificial intelligence giant OpenAI has been revealed to be removing control of the non-profit board and restructuring its core business into a for-profit welfare company, which could be worth $150 billion after restructuring. In addition, OpenAI CTO Mira · Murati announced his departure.
3. Tesla's official Weibo released a message announcing that the release time of Tesla's Robotaxi driverless taxi will be October 10, California time. In this regard, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on social platforms that this will go down in history.
4. According to people familiar with the matter, after Hindenburg Research released a short-selling report, the United States Department of Justice is investigating Supermicrocomputer, and the investigation is in the preliminary stage. Hindenburg previously issued a short-selling report, accusing computers of "accounting irregularities" and a series of other problems.
5. Korea's LG Display announced that it will sell its LCD factory in Guangzhou, China to TCL Huaxing Optoelectronics for RMB 10.8 billion, and the company will focus more on developing OLED business.
6. United States Steel announced that the arbitration commission had ruled in favor of Japan Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition of the company, but the United of United States Steelworkers (USW) did not agree with this decision.
7. Korea battery manufacturer SK On announced plans to introduce special leave and voluntary separation measures to improve efficiency and better cope with the electric vehicle market conditions.
8. Three major banks in Japan and the Policy Investment Bank of Japan will invest up to 25 billion yen in chipmaker Rapidus to support the latter's plan to promote the mass production of advanced semiconductors in 2027.
9. Japan's Suntory announced plans to raise wages by about 7% in 2025. If this wage increase can materialize, it will be the third consecutive year of wage increases.
10. Renault Motor confirmed that it will sell back about 5% of Nissan Motor's shares to Nissan, and is expected to receive cash inflows of up to 494 million euros.
Commodity//
1. Domestic commodity futures closed at night, most of the energy and chemical products rose, soda ash rose 6.08%, glass rose 3.52%, low sulfur fuel oil fell 2.83%, fuel oil fell 2.71%, and crude oil fell 1.95%. The black series rose across the board, coking coal rose 4.6%, coke and iron ore rose nearly 3%. Agricultural products generally rose, with corn up 2.25%. Most of the base metals closed higher, Shanghai zinc rose 2.06%, Shanghai copper rose 1.91%, Shanghai aluminum rose 1.15%, Shanghai lead rose 0.81%, Shanghai tin rose 0.55%, stainless steel rose 0.41%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.18%. Shanghai gold fell 0.01%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.83%.
2. Bank of China said that since September 27, when purchasing accumulation fund products or creating an accumulation regular investment plan according to the amount, the minimum purchase amount will be adjusted from 600 yuan to 650 yuan, and the additional purchase amount will remain unchanged at an integer multiple of 200 yuan.
3. The State Food and Material Reserves Administration announced that the centralized procurement of summer grain nationwide is nearing the end, with a total of more than 70 million tons of summer grain purchased. At present, autumn grain has begun to be listed one after another, and it is expected that the centralized purchase of autumn grain this year will be about 200 million tons.
4. According to people familiar with the matter, Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon the unofficial price target of $100 per barrel of crude oil to increase production and maintain its share. At the same time, Libya parties reached a "compromise" to pave the way for the resumption of crude oil production.
5. Russia's energy ministry expects global oil demand to have "huge" growth potential by 2050 and is ready to expand supply. Global oil demand is expected to grow by at least 5 million b/d to 7 million b/d by 2030.
6. OPEC+ will continue to push forward with the December oil production increase plan, because if some members agree to implement a plan to implement larger production cuts in September and later months to make up for excess production, the impact of the increase will be small.
7. According to the latest quotation of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on September 26, the price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was flat at 75,100 yuan/ton.
8. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index rose 3.72% to 2091 points, rising for six consecutive days.
Bond//
1. [Bond Market Overview] The Politburo meeting released a blockbuster signal, the stock market soared, and bonds fell. The yield of interbank cash bonds rose sharply, led by ultra-long bonds, and the 30-year "23 interest-bearing treasury bond 23" once rose by nearly 10bp. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the main 30-year contract falling 1.05%, the biggest one-day decline in a month and a half. Real estate bonds performed better, and Vanke bonds generally rose; The yield of banks' "two permanent bonds" has generally risen significantly. The hierarchical structure of funds is more obvious, the overnight repo weighted rate of banks has dropped slightly to 1.6%, and the exchange repo rate has generally risen significantly.
2. The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 2 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Paris, France, including 3-year 1.25 billion euros and 7-year 750 million euros, with interest rates of 2.517% and 2.738% respectively. International investors subscribed enthusiastically, with a total subscription amount of 16.2 billion euros, 8.1 times the amount of the issue.
3. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed up 1.55%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal Rights Index closed up 1.58%. More than 500 convertible bonds rose in the whole market, with Yili convertible bonds, Jincheng convertible bonds, and Kabei convertible 02 rising by 14.77%, 7.6%, and 7.23% respectively; In terms of decline, Songwon's convertible bonds and profit-converted bonds fell by 2.19% and 2.12% respectively.
4. The central bank will carry out the ninth phase of the central bank bill swap (CBS) operation in 2024, with a total amount of 4.75 billion yuan, a term of 3 months, and a rate of 0.10%.
5. According to the National Association of Institutional Investors, as of August 31, 2,895 enterprises and 116 credit enhancement institutions with debt financing instruments in the duration disclosed their 2024 semi-annual reports on schedule. For 2 enterprises and 1 credit enhancement institution that fail to disclose on time, self-discipline will be dealt with in accordance with regulations.
6. India's Secretary for Economic Affairs said Treasury bill borrowings have been cut given current holding levels and projected cash flows; New sovereign gold bonds will be issued as necessary.
Foreign exchange//
1. The onshore yuan closed at 7.0200 against the US dollar at 16:30 on Thursday, up 18 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.0110 in the night. The offshore yuan rose more than 500 basis points against the dollar at one point, rising above 6.98. On the same day, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0354, a decrease of 152 basis points.
Important Economic Agenda //
Review of historical articles
"The Central Bank's Official Announcement Series of King Bombs"
"The Central Bank's Big Move Towards Currency, Real Estate Stocks and Bonds Exchange"
Suddenly! Global sprint interest rate cuts" "Gold bull market, how long can it last? 》
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