A battle called "the fiercest intra-party battle in history" - the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan finally came to an end on the 27th.
The 67-year-old Shi Po Shigeru, after experiencing five setbacks, finally staged a miracle of "Wang Ba turned over" and successfully ascended to the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party. This also means that when the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's term ends on September 30, Shigeru Ishiba will most likely take over as prime minister on October 1, realizing his "dream of being prime minister" for many years. However, behind this victory, there are profound changes and contradictions in Japan's political ecology.
According to Japan's Kyodo News Agency, the election campaign was full of gunpowder from the beginning, with a total of nine candidates running, setting a new record for the number of candidates in the history of the Liberal Democratic Party. You know, even in the 2012 presidential election, which was sensational enough, only 5 people participated. This time, the "fragmentation" of Japan's political circle can be seen, and people from all walks of life have appeared one after another, intending to get a piece of this political feast.
Shigeru Ishiba, the "president professional escort" hit the president of the Liberal Democratic Party for the fifth time, and his career path can be described as extremely bumpy. Since 2008, he has embarked on a quest to become president of the Liberal Democratic Party, but has always failed to lose either to the Shinzo Abe faction or to other, more powerful candidates.
In the first round of voting this time, Shigeru Ishiba won 154 votes against Sanae Takaichi's 181 votes, and because neither of them reached the threshold of more than half of the votes, he had to enter a more fierce second-round showdown. This is not only a race between two people, but also an undercurrent of political forces behind it.
In the second round of voting, Shigeru Ishiba won 215 votes out of 415 votes and successfully turned the tables, while Sanae Takaichi only received 194 votes and unfortunately lost. This result undoubtedly surprised many people, after all, before the election, many media and experts predicted that Sanae Takaichi would win.
So, how did Shigeru achieve this counterattack?
The answer may lie in Japan's "secret room politics."
In a country where political transactions are often conducted in private, and behind all seemingly open elections lies an intricate tangle of interests.
First of all, there is the fierceness of factional disputes.
The LDP was already full of factions, but since last year's political donation scandal broke out, the big factions have collapsed, and the "Aso faction" has become the sole survivor.
In the second round of voting, Shinjiro Koizumi, supporters of Taro Kono, non-factional lawmakers led by Yoshihide Suga, and some members of the former "Second Order" faction and the former "Kishida" faction all chose to support Shigeru Ishiba. Their purpose in doing so was simple - to refuse to cooperate with the "Aso faction" and to prevent Sanae Takaichi from "taking away all the benefits of the whole bowl" after coming to power.
Secondly, it is the political skill of Shigeru Ishiba himself.
His campaign slogan, "End political black money, build a rule-abiding politics and LDP," won the support of many grassroots party members and voters. After all, the credibility of Japan's political scene has been severely damaged after last year's political donation scandal erupted. Shi Pomao's proposition undoubtedly won him a lot of plus points.
At the same time, he also skillfully exploited the contradictions between the various factions, and won the support of key votes through private negotiations and exchange of interests. Although this kind of "secret room politics" method has been criticized, it has been tried and tested repeatedly.
The prime minister who "dies if you are addicted"?
Although Shigeru Ishiba was successfully elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party and is about to take over as prime minister, many people are not optimistic about his future. After all, in Japan, a country firmly controlled by the United States, politics is always deformed. The prime minister produced under the deformed politics is often just synonymous with political freaks, and no matter how strong his ability is, he cannot exert himself. What's more, Japan is now in an eventful time.
In Japan, the economic glory of the past has become a cloud of the past, and now the economic growth is like a snail, the gap between the rich and the poor and the local divide are like a heavenly barrier, and the local scene is even more bleak. Per capita GDP fell from the top of the world to outside the thirties, and the total GDP was overtaken by India, which is almost a foregone conclusion. The cabinet has changed one stubble after another, and in the face of these problems, it is like a grasshopper shaking a tree, and it is difficult to do anything.
In short, Japan's economy, the former phoenix has become a chicken's head, and one cabinet is worried.
When it comes to finance, Japan plays the role of United States blood transfusion. In order to maintain the hegemony of the dollar, Japan had to sacrifice its economic interests and monetary sovereignty. A few days later, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit Japan for an "inspection," which will undoubtedly add another pressure to the Japan government. Against this backdrop, will Ishiba be able to withstand the pressure and safeguard Japan's national interests? I'm afraid even he himself is not completely sure.
And on the international stage, Japan is in an even more embarrassing position. As a loyal little brother of United States, Japan had to stand for the interests of United States, even at the expense of his own energy interests and Japan-Russia relations. This "loyal dog" posture has caused Japan to be repeatedly blinded in the international community.
The turn from "pro-China" to "anti-China".
Shigeru's political stance is also quite complicated. Before 2010, he was called a "pro-China faction" and repeatedly refuted the "China threat theory." Over time, however, he gradually became an "anti-centrist". On 13 August this year, he also led more than 10 Japanese parliamentarians to visit Taiwan Province and staged a farce of "Taiwan independence." However, what is interesting is that he refused to answer Japan's position in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait in Taipei, avoiding the sensitive topic of "if there is something in Taiwan, there is something wrong with Japan." This kind of "pleasing to both ends" makes people doubt his political wisdom and judgment.
On the other hand, although Shigeru Ishiba opposes the Japanese Prime Minister's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, he is also relatively sober in his understanding of Japan's war crimes of aggression against China. However, he also advocated turning Japan's Self-Defense Forces into a "national defense force" and actively advocated amending the Peace Constitution. When such a contradictory person becomes the prime minister of Japan, China will naturally maintain a high degree of vigilance and observation of him.
The "freak" phenomenon of Japan politics: an inevitable product of deformed politics
Looking back at the development of Japan's politics, it is not difficult to find an interesting phenomenon: that is, the emergence of political freaks one after another. From Shinzo Abe to Fumio Kishida and now Shigeru Ishiba, every prime minister seems to have their own unique "quirks" and "characteristics". The root cause of this phenomenon undoubtedly lies in the deformed state of Japan's politics.
In Japan, political power is highly concentrated in the hands of the Liberal Democratic Party, which is riddled with factions and contradictions. In this political landscape, the fate of politicians often depends on the faction they belong to and the interest groups behind them. As a result, they had to engage in fierce struggles and compromises for power and interests. The result of this struggle and compromise has been the emergence of one political freak after another.
With Shigeru Ishiba becoming the new prime minister, the "palace fighting drama" of Japan politics seems to have come to an end for the time being. But we all know that the drama never really ends. Because the deformity and fragmentation of Japan's politics have penetrated deep into the bone marrow, it is difficult to fundamentally change. And United States' control and influence over Japan will also continue.
Therefore, we can foresee that in the coming days, the "palace fighting drama" of Japan politics will continue to be staged. For the new prime minister, it remains to be seen whether his premiership trip will break the cycle of Japan's politics and achieve truly independent foreign and domestic reforms. But then again, how much can he do in Japan's deformed political ecology? I'm afraid it can only be "addicted to death"!
The picture comes from the Internet