Editor's note: The current narrative of the end of United States hegemony in a limited period of time does not represent a total repudiation of United States' power, but an up-to-date assessment of the state of the international system under United States. On September 20, 2024, Wang Wen, Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University and Executive Director of the China-US Center for People-to-People Exchange (Ministry of Education), was invited to attend the International Relations Sub-forum of the 8th Taihe Civilization Forum, and delivered a speech on the theme of "United States hegemony is dead, but the future is unknown".
▲ The meeting site
Many people think that the implicit title in "A Century of Change" is "The Decline of United States," which is somewhat inaccurate. In terms of absolute strength, United States has not declined, and is still improving in terms of domestic scientific and technological innovation and economic vitality, but from the perspective of the global system, United States hegemony has declined and is approaching the end.
1
United States hegemony is dead
The year 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Now it seems that the hegemonic system built after the end of World War II, in which the United States has long dominated and enjoyed near-absolute dominance, has basically collapsed. This is related to the following five factors:
First, the disappearance of United States' absolute dominance over global politics. Who still believes in the "democracy" of United States now? Worse, if Trump loses the United States presidential election again in November and Harris wins, it is very likely to trigger a crisis even worse than the "Capitol Hill riot" in January 2021. At that time, the so-called global "liberal democracy" will collapse.
Second, the absolute dominance of United States over the global economy has faded. In terms of effectiveness, the United States' trade war with China and comprehensive sanctions against Russia have failed. In the past six years, China's surplus with the United States has increased instead of decreasing, and the trade war has not suppressed bilateral trade between China and the United States, and the trade volume between the two countries has remained high. In the past two years, I have traveled to Russia eight times and found that the Russia economy is very good, completely beyond the imagination of the outside world. At the same time, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) United States constructed, as well as the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative and the Global Infrastructure and Investment Partnership (PGII), which attempt to "replace" China's Belt and Road Initiative, have had little success and can basically be declared a failure. Today, the only economic dominance of the United States is the dollar, but more than 100 countries have also set off a wave of "de-dollarization". If United States current round of interest rate cuts fails to effectively curb the growth of US debt, it will only be a matter of time before this "dammed lake" collapses the hegemony of the US dollar.
The third is the disappearance of United States' dominance over global values. United States has long flaunted the concepts of "human rights" and "freedom", but in the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Israel has connived at the genocidal massacre of Palestine. At the same time, United States has one of the worst human rights records in the world, with frequent shootings and racial discrimination in the country, and the United States "human rights myth" has collapsed.
Fourth, the "United States Dream" is greatly weakening its appeal to the world. United States society is divided, and there is no consensus on even basic gender issues. At present, the number of Chinese students studying in the United States is only half of what it was at its peak.
Fifth, United States' scientific and technological hegemony is collapsing. Huawei launched the world's first triple-fold mobile phone on September 10, indicating that Huawei has successfully broken through the six-year international technology blockade. A superpower's five-year-long tech strangulation of a company has been unsuccessful. According to reports, Huawei's profitability has grown by more than 20% annually over the past three years. At the same time, Apple's situation has turned bad, and the stock price is going down. The explosion of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon on September 17 has raised consumer concerns about the safety of United States technology products such as Apple. In the future, it is believed that more and more people, especially those of countries with tense relations with the United States, will abandon the use of United States technology communication products.
To sum up, the United States hegemonic system is only one landmark event away from closing the coffin, such as a larger financial crisis.
However, the death of United States hegemony does not mean that United States is dead, but indicates that United States will be reduced from a global hegemonic country to a regional power in the North Atlantic region, and its regional hegemony will only dominate twenty or thirty Western countries in the region.
2
The post-United States hegemonic era is highly uncertain
Whether the world in the post-United States hegemony becomes better or worse depends on two factors: on the one hand, will China and the "Global South" become better? On the other hand, is United States crazy? Some people in United States strategic circles have pointed out that United States should not only use Ukraine as a "pawn" to contain Russia, but also further incite conflicts in the western Pacific and instigate the Taiwan region, the Philippines, Japan, and other countries to engage in another "proxy war." United States such crazy practices in order to maintain hegemony are very bad, and will only make the world worse, and there is even the possibility of misfire.
The current narrative of the end of United States hegemony in a limited period of time does not represent a total repudiation of United States power, but an up-to-date assessment of the state of the international system under United States dominance. The first half of the "Centennial Changes" drama is nearing the end, and the second half will be more worth looking forward to.
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Established on January 19, 2013, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University of China (Renmin University Chongyang) is the main funding project donated by Chongyang Investment to Chinese University and set up an education fund for operation.
As a new type of think tank with Chinese characteristics, Chongyang has hired dozens of former politicians, bankers, and well-known scholars from around the world as senior researchers, aiming to pay attention to reality, advise the country, and serve the people. At present, the Chongyang National People's Congress has 7 departments and 4 operation and management centers (the Center for Ecological Finance, the Center for Global Governance, the Center for China-US People-to-People Exchange, and the China-Russia Center for People-to-People Exchange). In recent years, the Chongyang National People's Congress has been highly recognized at home and abroad in the fields of financial development, global governance, major-country relations, and macroeconomic policy.