China Fund News reporter Taylor
Brothers and sisters, next week will be a trading day, Sunday investors are discussing the arrival of the bull market, new investors are running into the market to find a brokerage to open an account, for fear of Monday opening short!
So how did A-shares go on Monday? What are the latest research and judgment of brokerage analysts? Let's take a look.
Great weekend
1. National Standing Meeting: Study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and study and deploy the implementation of a package of incremental policies
Li Qiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council, which studied and implemented the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech on the current economic situation and economic work at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, and studied and deployed the implementation of a package of incremental policies. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to unify thinking and action with the scientific judgment of the Party Central Committee on the economic situation, implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, implement the policies and measures that have been clearly defined, effectively implement macroeconomic regulation and control, promote the coordinated efforts of various policies, play a good combination of punches, strive to solve outstanding problems in economic operation, and strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks. Each policy must clarify the division of responsibilities, speed up the pace of introduction and implementation, relatively mature policies should be launched immediately, and policies that need to be further refined and improved should be done as soon as possible, and mature batches should be launched. All departments should not take refuge or pass the buck, and form a strong joint work force. At the same time, it is necessary to study new incremental policies in a timely manner in light of changes in the situation. It is necessary to carry out in-depth investigation and research, pay attention to listening to the opinions of all sides, and constantly optimize and improve policy measures. It is necessary to strengthen policy interpretation, better build consensus and enhance confidence.
2. The National Development and Reform Commission organized and convened a plenary meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Joint Conference on Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods
The National Development and Reform Commission organized a plenary meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Joint Conference on Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods. The meeting stressed that since the introduction of the policy measures to make overall arrangements for 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the "two new", all relevant departments in various regions have accelerated the formulation of detailed rules, accelerated the arrangement of funds, accelerated the implementation of policies, and promoted the "two new" work to achieve remarkable results, which has played an important role in stimulating investment, promoting consumption, accelerating transformation and ensuring people's livelihood. The meeting demanded that we should enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency for doing a good job in the "two new" work, form a joint work force, and pay close attention to promoting the implementation. Strengthen the scheduling of key tasks, and strive to solve the problem of blocking points and stuck points. Strict capital and project management to ensure that funds are effective. Strengthen product quality and price supervision, and create a good market environment. Smooth the recycling of waste materials and accelerate the promotion of standard improvement actions. Carry out in-depth publicity and interpretation, respond to social concerns in a timely manner, and solidly promote the "two new" work to achieve greater results.
3. Central Bank: Reduce the interest rate of existing housing loans to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market
The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China for the third quarter of 2024 (the 106th meeting overall) was held in Beijing on September 25. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to fully understand the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, conform to the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, and strive to promote the implementation of the financial policy measures that have been introduced, support the revitalization of the stock of idle land, reduce the interest rate of the stock of housing loans, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Increase financial support for the "market + security" housing supply system, and promote the acceleration of the construction of a new model of real estate development.
4. The central bank: promote the implementation of newly established tools such as securities, funds, insurance companies, swap facilities, stock repurchases, and reloans, and maintain the stability of the capital market
The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China for the third quarter of 2024 (the 106th meeting overall) was held in Beijing on September 25.
The meeting pointed out that the effective implementation of various existing structural monetary policy tools, promote the exchange facilities of securities, funds, insurance companies and the implementation of new tools such as stock repurchase and refinancing, and maintain the stability of the capital market; Adhere to and implement the "two unswerving", continue to do a good job in financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy, and further break through the blockages and stuck points of financing for small, medium and micro enterprises. Fully understand the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, comply with the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, and strive to promote the implementation of the financial policies and measures that have been introduced, support the revitalization of the stock of idle land, reduce the interest rate of the stock of housing loans, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Implement financial policy measures to promote the healthy development of the platform economy.
5. The central bank: make every effort to accelerate the implementation of financial incremental policy measures
The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China for the third quarter of 2024 (the 106th meeting overall) was held in Beijing on September 25. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to take Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guide, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Financial Work Conference, and in accordance with the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, firmly grasp the primary task of high-quality development, solidly promote Chinese-style modernization, completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. Organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of macroeconomic policies, make every effort to accelerate the implementation of financial incremental policy measures, effectively improve social expectations, enhance economic vitality, and consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery.
6. The central bank: cut the interest rate of the standing lending facility by 20 basis points
The People's Bank of China announced on September 27 that it lowered the standing lending facility interest rate by 20 basis points, adjusting the overnight, 7-day and 1-month standing lending facility interest rates to 2.35%, 2.50% and 2.85% respectively. The main function of the Standing Lending Facility is to meet the large liquidity needs of financial institutions with long maturities. The targets are mainly policy banks and national commercial banks.
7. The central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 182 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 1.50%
The central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 182 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 1.50%. The central bank announced on the 27th that in order to increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy and support stable economic growth, from September 27, the interest rate of 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market will be adjusted from the previous 1.70% to 1.50%.
8. National Development and Reform Commission: Private enterprises and private entrepreneurs are our own people, and we must do our best to help enterprises tide over difficulties
Zheng Shajie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, presided over the symposium and exchanged views with the heads of private enterprises such as Youngor, Meituan, Zhongtian Technology, Neusoft Group, and Baofeng Energy, and listened to the real situation of the operation and development of private enterprises, the difficulties they faced, and their opinions and suggestions on the economic situation. Zheng Shajie said that private enterprises and private entrepreneurs are our own people, and we must make every effort to help enterprises tide over difficulties. In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will fully implement the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, continue to strengthen overall planning and coordination in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, support enterprises to accelerate transformation and upgrading, become better and stronger, and make good use of the normalized communication and exchange mechanism.
9. The Shanghai Stock Exchange's test is all over today, and the bidding system receives 270 million orders, which is twice the historical peak
From 9:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange launched a test of platform-related businesses such as bidding and integrated business. At present, the tests have all been completed. The reporter learned that in this test, the bidding trading system of the Shanghai Stock Exchange received a total of 270 million orders, which was twice the historical peak and 3 times that of last Friday (September 27). The overall performance of the exchange test system is normal, in line with expectations.
10. The ICBC Bank-Securities Net Transfer Index hit a new high since 2021 this week
Stimulated by a series of blockbuster policies, this week (September 23 to September 27), the stock market has seen a rare surge in recent years, and the relevant stock index has set a number of historical records, which has stimulated the enthusiasm of investors and a large number of funds have entered the market. According to data from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the bank's net value of changes in investors' bank-securities transfer funds soared to 7.04 on September 27, significantly higher than the previous four trading days' 0.66, 2.15, 1.4, and 4.4, and the weekly average was 3.13, a new high in three and a half years since 2021. Industry insiders pointed out that despite the recent market heat, there are still a large number of over-the-counter funds that have not yet entered the market, and the existence of this part of the short funds indicates that the market may still have room to rise in the future.
The latest research and judgment of brokers
1. Haitong Strategy: Where are the opportunities in the mid-level market?
(1) The policy combination is based on the real economy and takes into account the capital market, and the stock market is at a historic bottom in the early stage, and the conditions for the start of the intermediate market have been met.
(2) Each round of the intermediate market has a main line, real estate and consumption support policies are the highlights, and real estate and consumer medicine with low valuation and low position are worth paying attention to.
(3) Combined with the opinions of industry analysts: pay attention to high-quality real estate enterprises, liquor and dairy products, Hong Kong stock Internet e-commerce and beauty care retail, sports boom track and pharmaceutical high-quality targets.
2. Shenwan Hongyuan strategy: "policy bottom" established
Short-term monetary, fiscal, and capital market policies have been continuously catalyzed, policy expectations have been reversed in an all-round way, economic optimistic expectations have also begun to ferment, and market indices have risen rapidly. When the market deduces to the stage of fermentation of economic optimistic expectations, if the expectations run too fast and the reality has not yet kept up, the market will inevitably be dulled. At that time, the rhythm of the market may switch to a stage of strong shocks and sector theme rotation, in any case, we believe that the post-holiday market money-making effect may still be strong.
This time it is the "policy bottom", because after the policy adjustment, the visibility of the "performance bottom" has been significantly improved. The source of the "bottom performance" is that the weak demand has improved and the pressure on the release of supply has fallen across the board. The "market bottom" may have already appeared, and of course, the outcome of the United States election could affect the medium-term market: if the world trades Harris, A-shares will break out in November, and the export chain will lead the rally. If the world trades Trump, the second quarter of 2025 could be the starting point for a medium-term upside.
The structure of the step stage of the index, pro-cyclical + technology. Pro-cyclical focus on real estate chain, real estate stocks, food and medical care, nonferrous metals, coal; Technology is highly resilient, focusing on the STAR 50 Index and the STAR 50 Index. In the plate rotation stage, we will focus on the direction of the expected economic inflection point in 2025. The second quarter report recovered, and the third quarter may continue to improve the direction, power grid equipment, wind power equipment, and innovative drugs. Subsequent high dividends may underperform relative returns, and the focus of high dividends has shifted to breaking the net and high dividends, using repurchases, increasing holdings and relending for market value management.
3. Sino-Thai strategy: the policy has turned positive to help the market rise
It should be noted that the September Politburo meeting placed more emphasis on economic growth, but it was not the "2008 flood". The meeting mentioned that "it is necessary to look at the current economic situation in a comprehensive, objective and calm manner", and the fiscal policy statement emphasizes more on "risk prevention" such as "three guarantees", which is substantially different from the statement of "fast and heavy" before 4 trillion yuan in 2008. Compared with the policies of functional departments, the biggest feature of high-level policies is that they will follow up with various functional departments at all levels, and ministries and commissions at all levels will make every effort to follow up and intensively launch a series of "effective" intermediate policies. Therefore, referring to the above periods in history, there will often be a monthly to quarterly rally.
4. Huaxi Strategy: A-share deduces the reversal of the market, and the first allocation of high-quality growth and consumption
A-shares deduce a reversal market, with the first allocation of high-quality growth and consumption. We have seen a full push for policy, with risk assets being significantly boosted and equity market liquidity improving significantly. This time, the volume of A-shares regained 3,000 points, forming a "double bottom" support with the market in early February. Looking back at the last round of the medium-level market, it is roughly divided into three stages, and it is currently only in the 1.0 stage of the market start, with valuation and risk appetite as the core influencing factors. After the tone of the 926 Politburo meeting was set, the follow-up incremental implementation measures of various ministries and commissions will be introduced one after another, and the policy will enter a "honeymoon period", and the positive sentiment in the landing stage will still be supported.
5. Guotai Junan strategy: It is expected to open up space and build a stage to grow and sing
It is expected to open up the space, and the weight will be set up to grow up and sing. China's stock market rebounded epicly this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 12.81% and the ChiNext Index up 22.71%. Stock prices are investors' expectations for the future, and loose financial policies and active Politburo meetings imply objective analysis of the economic situation by policymakers, and an urgent change in attitude towards economic policies and capital markets, which is the key to the upward revision of stock market expectations. The key to understanding the logic of this round of stock market is not the sharp upward revision of economic expectations, but the decline in the risk-free interest rate to promote incremental capital inflows, and the improvement of investors' expectations of risk prospects and risk appetite. The trading feature is that optimists are pricing to push up the stock price. After the short-term rally, optimistic expectations for policy will still push the stock market higher; Referring to the market height of the change in policy attitude in 2019, the valuation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange still has some room for upside. Heavyweight stocks are filling the pricing depression, and after the transaction is amplified, the weights will take the stage to grow and sing, and the excess return will turn to growth stocks.