The picture shows the air raids in the Lebanese-Israeli conflict
In this issue, after the Allah leader was killed, Iran decided to send troops to Lebanon, and the United States urgently spoke out in support of Israel.
On September 28, 2023, the world was shocked by a statement by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) that Lebanon Allah leader Hassan · Nasrallah had been "targeted and killed" in an attack by the Israel Air Force on September 27, the day before.
According to the Israeli army's statement, the airstrike took place at Allah's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. In addition to Nasrallah, Allah's southern front commander Ali · Kirki and several other senior commanders were killed in the attack. This information was also quickly confirmed by Allah.
Pictured is Nasrallah
Nasrallah's death is undoubtedly a major blow to Allah and the entire "arc of resistance". As the leader of Allah, Nasrallah has always been the soul of the group. The beheading by Israel not only weakens the leadership of Allah's party, but is also likely to cause chaos and division within the organization, adding new wounds to the already fragile "arc of resistance".
In the face of the death of the leader of Allah, Iran, as its main supporter, has reacted with relative restraint and low profile, as has been the case since the outbreak of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict, after several major incidents. Although on September 29, according to domestic media reprinting foreign media reports, Iran has started to register for conscription to send troops to Lebanon, this statement is more like diplomatic pressure than substantive military preparations.
Then the "weakness" shown by Iran in recent times is actually in everyone's eyes. The reason why Iran is so cautious is that under the all-round suppression and sanctions of United States and its allies, it has to assess more carefully the cost of an all-out war between the Allah party and Israel. Especially in the context of Israel's clear intention to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, Iran's rash military deployment could lead to a larger conflict or even drag itself into the quagmire of full-scale war.
Pictured is Pezeshiziyan
In addition, Iran President Pezeshiciyan's speech at the United Nations General Assembly on September 24 further revealed that Iran's current policy towards the West has been adjusted. He made it clear that Iran seeks peace and opposes war and has no intention of clashing with any country, and pointed out that Israel's attack on Allah is aimed at "setting up a trap for Iran" and "pulling Iran into the water", and Iran will never be fooled. These statements reflect Iran's view of the current situation and imply that it will not further escalate the situation, but will seek a new strategy and balance in the confrontation with Israel and the West.
Well, this is the attitude of Iran. As a major supporter of Israel, the reaction of United States is equally noteworthy. On September 28, United States President Joe Biden issued a statement reaffirming his support for Israel's self-defense actions. Biden also stressed that the US military will further strengthen its military presence in the Middle East to prevent a large-scale war.
The picture shows United States President Joe Biden
United States' response, without a doubt, reflects Washington's unwavering support for Israel. At the same time, it is also issuing a warning to the Iran and the "Arc of Resistance" that United States will unswervingly safeguard its interests and security in the Middle East.
It is worth noting that on September 28, the United States broadcaster ABC reported that Israel is currently preparing to launch a small-scale ground war against Lebanon, and some Israeli troops may have entered southern Lebanon. Although this news has not yet received an official response from Israel, it is enough to show that a Lebanese-Israeli war is already on the way.
The picture shows the air raid operation in the Lebanese-Israeli conflict
So, the question is, once Israel does take ground action, what kind of situation will Allah face next? From 2 perspectives:
On the one hand, within Allah. As a major armed force in the "Arc of Resistance," it has a broad popular base, strong organizational capabilities, and rich experience in fighting against the United States. After Nasrallah's death, it is likely that there will be a rapid realignment of power within Allah to elect a new leader to replace Nasrallah. At the same time, Allah may also use its influence in Lebanon to launch widespread protests and demonstrations to pressure United States and Israel.
However, on the other hand, from the perspective of the external environment, as mentioned earlier, Iran is not determined to go to war with Israel now, so naturally it will not make much effort to support Allah. Then, without the firm support of Iran, the Allah Party will face no less predicament than Hamas in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict if a full-scale war breaks out with Israel. Therefore, the fate of Allah in the future will depend on its ability to find a new way out of its difficult situation, seek substantial help from Iran, and further evolve the situation in the Middle East.
Pictured is Netanyahu
In general, Nasrallah's beheading is a microcosm of the situation in the Middle East entering a new phase, and at the same time reflects the very passive attitude of Iran and the "arc of resistance". In the final analysis, this kind of passivity is that the gap in strength is too large. It is not only a military gap, but an all-round gap in science and technology, intelligence, and economy. Further, the reason why Israel is so rampant is also the bottomless support given by the United States and Western countries.
In the face of this state of affairs, if the Arab countries in the Middle East want to win once, I think the first problem to be solved is not internal friction and unity. In the past, United States' strategy in the Middle East was to support one faction and fight another. So now this strategy is still valid. Israel can still be reckless in attacking Palestine and Lebanon without any worries. Because the United States and Israel have concluded that it is impossible for the Arab countries to unite as one!
So what I want to say at the end of the show is that 10,000 people use the bow, shoot a move, and all the moves are hit. In the Middle East, when anti-Israeli forces face the common enemy of Israel, it is all the more necessary to work together to form a strong synergy. Only when all parties can perform their respective duties and support and cooperate can they give full play to the advantages of the whole and win the contest with Israel.