After entering October, 2025 is also coming. Many retirees are beginning to pay attention, will pensions continue to grow in 2025? In fact, in Article 18 of the Social Insurance Law, the state has clearly formulated the normal growth mechanism of pensions - according to the growth of average social wages and prices, the level of basic pension insurance benefits will be increased in a timely manner. In addition, if we take into account that the basis of pension growth is the affordability of pension insurance funds, then the growth of pensions is related to these three factors.
(1) The increase in the average social wage.
The average social wage is the most critical factor in the level of social insurance benefits, and it is related to many factors in our pension benefits.
First of all, the average social wage determines the upper and lower limits of the payment base of the pension insurance, which can affect the income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund. The upper and lower limits of our pension insurance payment base are determined according to 60%~300% of the average salary of the previous year, such as 4,416 yuan to 22,078 yuan in Shandong Province in 2024.
Second, the average salary is a factor in the calculation and payment of basic pensions. In our basic pension calculation formula, the basic pension and transitional pension are linked to the average social salary of the previous year of retirement. If the employee retired in December and January last year, the average salary used for the calculation of the two types of personnel is different, so the pension result calculated is also different. The higher the average salary, the higher the pension, so the pension needs to rise.
Third, the average salary affects the interest rate of the personal account of pension insurance. The interest rate of personal account accounting is determined by taking into account the growth rate of the average social wage, and it is also related to the improvement of pension benefits.
Fourth, the increase in the average social wage also affects the income of residents. Wage income is the most important part of the per capita disposable income of residents, accounting for more than half.
According to the current situation of disposable income, the growth rate of disposable income of residents in the first half of 2024 is 5.4%, and the growth rate of wage income will reach 5.8%. Therefore, next year's wage level is likely to continue to rise, so it can also promote the continued increase in pensions.
(2) Rising prices.
Prices are the most direct factor related to people's cost of living. In particular, the main source of living income of the retired elderly depends on the pension, if we want to ensure the basic living standards of the retired elderly, so that they can share the fruits of social development and progress, it is necessary for the pension growth rate of the retired elderly to outperform the price. Over the past few years, the mainland's price control target has generally been within 3 percent. And the increase in pensions is more than 3%.
In August, the mainland's consumer price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year, and the growth level is expected to increase in the following months. Considering the increase in prices, it is believed that pensions will definitely continue to increase in 2025.
and (3) the affordability of the pension insurance fund.
According to the 2023 Statistical Communiqué on the Development of Human Resources and Social Security, the income of the basic pension insurance fund for employees in 2023 will be 7,050.6 billion yuan, the expenditure will be 6,375.7 billion yuan, and the balance of the year will reach 674.9 billion yuan. The cumulative balance is 6,363.9 billion yuan, which can basically cope with a year's pension expenditure.
In 2023, the number of employees insured by the mainland's employee pension insurance will be 379.25 million, an increase of 12.14 million over the previous year. The foundation of the pension insurance fund is still solid, especially the mainland will also implement a gradual delay in retirement and increase the minimum payment period for pensions.
Overall, the pension insurance fund still has enough ability to support the continued growth of pensions. #养老金增长#