This National Day holiday, the capital market really pressed the play button of a big show, the script started from the Middle East missile, to the Federal Reserve's statement of "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", and finally the three major U.S. stock indexes fell together, it can be said that the plot reversal continues, and there is suspense everywhere. This is the next day, the world has entered the rhythm of financial thrillers, and it is estimated that even the director is not sure what will be broadcast in the next episode.
Let's start with the first act of the play: the situation in the Middle East. In this year, if the Middle East does not set off some waves, oil prices will be embarrassed to rise. In the early hours of the morning, Iran launched two rounds of missiles against Israel, causing alarms in Israel to go on and on, and it did not allow people to sleep peacefully. Geopolitics is like this, when Mars splashes, gold, dollar, United States Treasury bonds and other safe-haven assets began to "show their faces", and oil prices soared by 5% at one point. Don't look at the current gas price list at the gas station has not changed, maybe the cost of turning back and driving will have to rise, and the people will not be able to escape the fish in the pond.
In the second act, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who was a talker, appeared on camera again, throwing off the sentence "not in a hurry to cut interest rates quickly", which made the market jump. Originally, many people were still hoping that the loose monetary policy could soothe people's hearts as soon as possible, but Powell's words were like cold water poured on the hot pot, which extinguished the enthusiasm of the bull market. It can be said that the Fed's attitude of not rushing to cut interest rates has completely awakened the market's sweet dream. This is the real "about to fall asleep, someone pulled my ears and dragged up".
Looking at the performance of U.S. stocks, the three major stock indexes fell across the board, with the Nasdaq leading the decline by 1.5%. Wall Street's "fear index" VIX also jumped sharply, approaching the warning line of 20, like ringing a big bell for the market. When such a loud noise came, investors opened their eyes wide, but the plot at this time didn't seem to have much comedy. Many shareholders began to doubt life, "Is my dream of wealth freedom destined to come true only in my dreams?" ”
The US dollar is not willing to be lonely and continues to strengthen, which makes the global market feel cold. In particular, our offshore RMB has retreated from 6.97 to 7.02, and this "threshold" in my heart makes Chinese investors sweat - this exchange rate change doesn't increase the difficulty coefficient for post-holiday investment? It's hard to have a holiday, and you have to watch the curve of the RMB ups and downs, which is really anxious.
Of course, there may be a follow-up to the Middle East conflict, and Israel is unlikely to suffer this loss without reacting. In the next round of geopolitical "you come and go", oil prices may continue to jump at high levels, and inflation may also rise, which may affect the Fed's decision-making - it is not ruled out that they will continue to play the trick of "calm handling" and make the global market more "troubled".
So the question is, what do these major changes in the global financial market have to do with us? To put it simply, the decline of US stocks and the rise of the US dollar, this "perfect combination" is like a "double kill" in the capital market. On the one hand, people look at the depreciation of the stocks in their hands, and on the other hand, they feel that the dollar assets have become attractive - but this temptation is not to "let you eat", but to "let you see", the tightening effect of the strong dollar will make the market risk continue to rise, and money will not dare to move easily.
In this era of uncertainties, risk aversion seems to be the most rational choice. People may be more inclined to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, and they may also start to pay attention to China's interest rate bonds and the renminbi. Yes, who doesn't want to find a stable place to "survive the limelight" in this moment of market change? But the key problem is that the market does not give people a chance to breathe at all, and it is not impossible that safe-haven assets will not be safe to avoid safety one day.
The reality is that there are too many people in this market, and there are "smart people" everywhere, and everyone thinks that they are the gods of stocks, and they all feel that they are the lucky ones. But there is a very piercing sentence: smart people are often reluctant to wake up, especially when they are indulged in a bull market dream - who will admit that they will be hit at this time? Therefore, there are only two kinds of characters in the market script that are repeatedly reincarnated: the winner and the harvested leek.
Finally, the editor would like to ask: everyone carnival together in the bull market, why do most people in the bear market have to cry alone? There are so many smart people, but why, there are always people who insist on rushing to the outlet of losing money? What do you think about this?