In the first three quarters of 2024, China's real estate market as a whole is still in a weak consolidation stage. In the first half of the year, both supply and transactions in the new home market were at a low level. After entering the second half of the year, the market is still at a low level of shock, the top 100 real estate companies in the first 9 months to achieve sales of 2,633.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%, quarterly, the top 100 real estate companies in the first three quarters of the performance scale are at a historical low.
From the perspective of corporate performance, the sales threshold of each echelon of the top 100 real estate companies in September was further reduced compared with the same period last year, and the threshold value fell to the lowest level in recent years. Its central state-owned enterprises and some overseas high-quality private enterprises have shown strong anti-cyclical resilience.
Overall, home buyer confidence and expectations are at a low level in the first three quarters of 2024. After the press conference of the State Council on September 24 and the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on September 26 for the first time to "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", the good news such as the reduction of the interest rate of the existing housing loan, the reduction of the down payment ratio and the adjustment of the purchase restriction policy in the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the last two days of September significantly boosted market confidence.
We believe that in the fourth quarter, enterprises should still actively market, increase preferential measures, and strengthen product strength to promote the decentralization of project transactions.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the real estate market continues to be at a low level. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies in the industry was 2,633.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%, which was basically the same as that in August and narrower than that in the first half of the year.
However, in September, the traditional peak season for real estate, the TOP100 real estate companies achieved sales of 251.72 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month, and their performance was not as good as that of the same period in previous years.
In terms of quarters, despite the continuous optimization of policies in the first three quarters, the market's response was not positive, and the performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies in the first three quarters remained at a historical low, and the overall performance pressure of real estate companies was still large.
Among them, the performance in the third quarter was relatively better, with a year-on-year decline of 28.6% in a single quarter, the lowest decline in the first three quarters.
The threshold for the top 100 to enter the list continued to decline, and the thresholds of each echelon hit a new low in recent years. From January to September 2024, the threshold value of the top 100 sales transactions will be 4.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39%. Among them, the threshold of the sales operation amount of the top 10 real estate enterprises decreased by 49.7% year-on-year to 64 billion yuan. The thresholds for the top 30 and top 50 real estate enterprises also decreased by 41.1% and 43.3% year-on-year to 17.83 billion yuan and 10.63 billion yuan respectively.
Judging from the specific performance of enterprises, as of the first three quarters, the cumulative performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises accounted for more than 9 percent of the year-on-year decline.
Specific to individual enterprises, high-quality enterprises with strong performance in previous years have also shown a decline, such as Poly Development, a representative of central enterprises, from January to September, the cumulative contract amount was 242.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%; The cumulative contracted sales amount of Yuexiu Real Estate, a representative of state-owned enterprises, from January to September was about 78.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30%.
From January to September 2024, there are only 6 companies with full-caliber sales exceeding 100 billion, of which only 1 exceeds 200 billion, while in the same period in 2023, there are 14 companies with full-caliber sales exceeding 100 billion, of which 5 are over 200 billion, and the highest one is over 300 billion.
In 2024, the "Golden Nine" will be in average condition: the supply of key 30 cities in September increased by 12% month-on-month, which was the same as the monthly average in the first half of the year, and the transaction fell three times in a row, down 6% month-on-month, down 34% year-on-year, and still down 17% compared with the monthly average in the first half of the year, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the first three quarters was 34%, and the decline was only 0.07 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month.
In terms of energy levels, the scale of the first line was stable and declining, with 4 first-line lines down 15% month-on-month, down 35% year-on-year, down 12% month-on-month compared with the first half of the year, and down 27% year-on-year.
In addition to Guangzhou, the three first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen all fell to varying degrees year-on-year, mainly due to the continuous intensification of residents' wait-and-see sentiment towards home purchases, especially the decreasing effect of stimulus policies on the market in May, and the impact of unfavorable factors such as high temperature and typhoon weather, residents' enthusiasm for buying houses is not high. The rebound in trading volume in Guangzhou is mainly due to the significant increase in supply, and the enthusiasm for transactions has rebounded to a certain extent.
The month-on-month decline of 4% in second- and third-tier cities was less than that of the first-tier, but the cumulative year-on-year decline was significantly higher than that of the first-tier
Predicting October, we believe that due to the frequent benefits from the central to local governments at the end of September, the 924 National New Council will launch a number of blockbuster policies, including RRR cuts, policy interest rate cuts, interest rate cuts for existing housing loans, reductions in the proportion of down payments for two sets, increasing the proportion of central financial support for re-lending, and renewing the "16 financial articles", etc., and then the Politburo meeting set the tone to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and then the core line of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen followed up, and the "four restrictions" policy continued to optimize and adjust.
In the medium term, there are still uncertainties about the overall market trend, but due to the significant strengthening of government support, there will be certain opportunities in the real estate market in the future.
In this case, on the one hand, the real estate enterprises that are out of risk should still take "guaranteed delivery" as the main goal, and continue to open sources and reduce expenditures to alleviate liquidity pressure. On the other hand, the remaining real estate companies still need to ensure the supply of goods as much as possible and do a good job in marketing to promote the decentralization of project transactions.
At the same time, enterprises also need to continue to pay attention to product upgrades and iterations, strengthen product strength, and strengthen development advantages in the increasingly intensified industry competition.
Attached: "Top 100 Chinese Real Estate Enterprise Sales from January to September 2024" list