On 1 October, a projectile intercepted by Israeli air defense systems flew over Jerusalem. Source: Xinhua News Agency
Straight news: Iran has once again launched ballistic missiles at Israel, etc., is a big war in the Middle East imminent?
Special Commentator Geng Xin: I think we should pay more attention to Iran and Israel, especially Iran's statement, which is a more important strategic message.
First of all, Iran officials said on the same day that the strike was not a surprise attack, but a decisive response to Israel's "aggression", and Iran does not seek war but resolutely resists any threat. In other words, it is a "self-defensive" blow, so that Iran occupies the commanding heights of "procedural justice".
Second, Iran has also shown that the strike is still a local, phased operation. If Israel responds or takes further malign actions, Iran will respond more forcefully. In fact, this is a warning statement of countermeasures to the subsequent situation in the Middle East. This is not only aimed at Israel, but also warns United States and other countries that have various forms of military ties with Israel that if the war escalates and expands, the attack on Israel will certainly not rule out that other countries will be involved in Israel-related targets. This is actually a preview of the beginning of a war in the Middle East.
In this regard, everyone has seen the tough reaction of Israel and United States, so is a war in the Middle East inevitable? Strictly speaking, in fact, war between Iran and Israel was officially declared more than a month ago, so it would not be surprising what kind of military conflict is happening between them now. Not to mention that Israel seems to have recently killed a red eye, leaving a very negative precedent in the history of mankind and even in the history of war. And it feels that it has some battlefield dominance, and subsequent escalation of the war is also predictable, especially as United States' support for Israel seems to be growing. For this battle in the Middle East, the outcome of the United States election, whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party comes to power, Israel seems to be more emboldened. Therefore, we should be prepared to deal with the new turmoil in the Middle East, and the Middle East peace process, which has been promoted by all parties before, is likely to be slowed down.
However, I still believe that in the midst of such a "retaliation and counter-retaliation" struggle, the Middle East may still roughly maintain its current basic pattern and will not undergo major subversive changes. This is because, at present, while all sides are preparing for the escalation of the war, they are also facing various dilemmas.
On 1 October, a projectile intercepted by Israeli air defense systems flew over Jerusalem. Source: Xinhua News Agency
The first is Israel, which is the initiator and responsible for this round of conflict. Netanyahu is also facing the dilemma of being unjust, on the surface it seems that he has not encountered much political pressure within Israel, but in fact, under international pressure, from the overall comprehensive strength, Netanyahu is already "the end of the strong crossbow". He will seize the current opportunity to take some action against Iran, while asking United States for his own benefit, but he may not dare to take risks.
United States' dilemma lies in a larger, deeper strategic dilemma. United States currently has to deal with both the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalation in the Middle East, which is significantly more strategic for United States than the Middle East escalation. If the Middle East war starts, for United States, it will be deeper into it, as if it has picked up sesame seeds and lost watermelons, because in this case, it will inevitably be distracted and lose its ability and chips to mediate on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.
As for Iran, it has already kicked the ball into the hands of the other side, and Iran may not want to and lack the strength to fight big, which can be analyzed from Iran's motives and strength. And we should note that if there is an adaptability in the Middle East as a whole, then Iran not only has this adaptability and endurance, but also Iran, as a major power, has shown considerable calmness and restraint when it has been repeatedly provoked and sanctioned by Israel or the West, and has taken a long-term view, even when taking counter-sanctions such as retaliation, it has maintained its own moderation and proportion.
Therefore, I have always believed that the Middle East is a region of constant wars and turmoil for a long time, but as long as there is no direct intervention of major powers, the contradictions in the Middle East itself are complex and long-term, and it is difficult to resolve them all at once. That's why I often say, "There is no righteous war in the Middle East, and there is no winner in the war", and although there is no end in sight to the outbreak of conflict, it is not too strong.
On October 1, Iran launched missiles over Jerusalem. Source: Xinhua News Agency
Straight News: In the face of such severe changes in the Middle East, what kind of attitude should China adopt?
Geng Xin, Special Commentator: China has always been concerned about the Middle East issue and has been playing an important and constructive role, especially in recent years, this positive and positive role has become more and more prominent. To sum up, in the face of this round of the Middle East, including the current conflict between Iran and Israel, the Chinese government's position is summarized as "four tracks".
The first is the moral track of fairness and justice. That is to say, when we do anything or mediate conflicts and disputes in a region, it is not simply a simple and neutral mediation, but we must truly coordinate on the moral basis of fairness and justice.
The second is the United Nations-led mediation track. There are precedents for this in the past, and there have been many good offices and mediations to hold joint negotiations as soon as possible to find common denominator and common ground respectively. If it doesn't work once, it will be two or three times, and we must strive to stop this war as soon as possible, which is not beneficial to anyone.
The third is the humanitarian rescue track. This is a bottom-line principled position that China has always emphasized, that is, no matter what kind of contradictions and conflicts have occurred as human beings today, we must adhere to the basic humanitarian bottom line, which is the first thing we should pay attention to at present, and the international community should first reach our consensus on this point and implement it in concrete actions.
Fourth, it is the track of "harmony is precious" to promote talks. As long as it is conducive to a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities and peace and reconciliation, all parties should support it, and what is not conducive to the general direction of peace and reconciliation is wrong and we should oppose. The big truth should be managed by the small reason.
As long as we follow these four tracks, one step at a time, and cross the river by feeling the stones, we will always make progress. Peace is the true way to earth.