Today, Hong Kong stocks fluctuated sharply and walked out of a V-shaped trend. In early trading, the Hang Seng Index fell more than 4%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 7% at one point. However, Hong Kong stocks rose strongly in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index narrowing their declines sharply, with the Hang Seng Index erasing its declines and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling to less than 1.5%. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index fell about 1.4%, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell about 3.3%, and Meituan, China Merchants Bank and others turned red.
Some Chinese-funded brokerage stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with Huatai Securities once rising more than 26%, Hongye Futures once rising more than 19%, and China Merchants Securities once rising more than 9%.
Shengjing Bank rose sharply intraday, once rising more than 200%.
In addition, FTSE China A50 Index futures traded in Singapore have also risen sharply, up more than 1.5% so far.
Regarding today's adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategy analyst of Industrial Securities, said that the shock of Hong Kong stocks is coming, which is precisely to verify the reversal logic, rather than a short-lived wave of rebound.
Yesterday, Zhang Yidong said in a live broadcast that the logic of China's stock market is changing. Whether it is A-shares or Hong Kong stocks, the medium-term market will shift from a rebound logic to a reversal logic. The key to this shift lies in the change in the direction of China's macroeconomic policy. He said that after September 24, there was a clear directional shift in policy orientation.
Zhang Yidong further said that for a long time in the past, overseas investors were more pessimistic about China's expectations and accumulated more short positions. At the end of September, the market sentiment changed rapidly, the bears were forced to close their positions, and the market was forced to short. Zhang Yidong said that the Hong Kong stock market is in the first stage of the market - that is, the short-covering stage. In the short term, the market is likely to be volatile. It takes time for the market to digest the "euphoria" and look for a sustainable investment thread.
Zhang Yidong also said in the latest strategic research report that if there is a short-term shock in the stock market in October, it should be actively faced. The research report believes that, first of all, after a short-forcing rebound at the end of September, China's stock market, especially Hong Kong stocks, has led the world in 2024. In the process of rising in October, it may encounter disturbances such as the United States election and the volatility of European and American stock markets, so that short-term profit-taking may occur. Secondly, in the short and medium term, we must abandon the bear market mentality and firm the bullish thinking. The shock in October is more about accumulating momentum and sweeping the sand, and the shock is to find a more sustainable and reversal of the main line opportunity. Third, there is no limit to the space and time of the medium-term market, because the capital momentum is still endless. Fourth, after the recent rally in Hong Kong stocks, there is still room for further repair.
In other markets, Wind data shows that on October 3, the A-share CSI 500 Index ETF listed in Japan closed up 62.5% at 10,400 points. On October 2, the ETF rose 77.8%, on October 1, the ETF rose 80.4%, and since September 27, the ETF has risen by more than 600% in five trading days.
According to information from the Japan Exchange Group, the ETF was listed on June 25, 2019 as part of the "China-Japan ETF Connect" program, which mainly tracks the CSI 500 Index.
In fact, recently, funds have borrowed Hong Kong stock ETFs, Japan ETFs, and US stock ETFs to buy Chinese assets on a large scale.
Yesterday, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange-listed Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF - Southern Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 soared by more than 230% intraday, and then fell back and closed up more than 28%. Today, the ETF rose more than 33% after the opening, and then fell back with the overall trend of Hong Kong stocks, falling more than 3% as of the close.
Bosera Kechuang 50 ETF once soared more than 180% today, and the closing increase fell back to about 23%, and yesterday, the ETF closed up more than 106%.
隔夜美股方面,3倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion涨超21%,2倍做多沪深300ETF-Direxion涨超15%,2倍做多富时中国50ETF-ProShares涨超14%,中概互联网ETF-kraneshares涨超6%,中国大型股ETF-iShares涨超7%。
Recently, China's stock market has risen sharply due to a series of policy "combination punches", which has rekindled the optimism of foreign investors about Chinese assets.
Morgan Stanley said the Chinese stock market could rise a further 10 to 15 percent if the Chinese government announces more spending measures in the coming weeks. "Expectations of further fiscal expansion are back on the table, allowing investors to look at China from a reflationary perspective for the first time in a long time." Laura Wang, chief China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in an interview, "The last time investors looked at China through this lens was actually after the beginning of last year. At the time, global investors were pricing at around 12 times the expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the MSCI China Index. ”
However, some market analysts pointed out that some of the soaring ETFs are on the one hand because A-shares are not open and funds are pouring into other markets to deploy A-shares, and on the other hand, the scale of these ETFs is not large. For example, the a-share CSI 500 Index ETF listed in Japan mentioned above, although it rose by more than 60% today, its total turnover was only 11.648 million yen (about 557,000 yuan).
Source: Securities Times
Editor: Xiaoya