Chao News client reporter Xiao Nuannuan
According to CCTV News, on October 1, local time, Iran launched about 200 missiles at Israel in response to Israel's previous attacks.
Iran missile strikes on Israel. Source: CCTV News
On October 2, Israel and Iran said that the possibility of a direct escalation of the conflict between the two countries is increasing. An anonymous Israel official told the media that Israel will carry out major retaliatory actions against Iran in the coming days.
Iran President Pezeshiziyan said that Iran expects peace and tranquility in the region and does not want war. However, Israel's military operations against the Gaza Strip, attacks on Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) leader Haniyeh in Iran and military strikes against Lebanon have compelled Iran to respond. If Israel retaliates against Iran, Iran will respond more strongly.
Iran media reported on the 2nd that in the large-scale missile attack launched by Iran on Israel, Iran missiles hit Israel air bases, destroying two squadrons of Israeli F-35 fighters.
Israel may launch a strong response to Iran
According to Xinhua, regarding the missile attack, Iran said that the missile launched on the night of October 1 hit 90 percent, while Israel said that most of the missiles were intercepted, and Israel suffered almost no losses. In response, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Iran's missile attack "a big mistake" against Israel and vowed to retaliate. Observers believe that similar to the first air strike in April this year to retaliate against Israel, Iran is still a "one-off" strike, hoping to avoid the situation completely spiraling out of control and prevent United States from directly involved.
"This missile attack is actually the result of Iran's domestic game." Wang Jin, an associate professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Northwest University, said that since Iran's new President Pezeshiziyan came to power, he hopes to promote the easing of the situation in the Middle East, especially constructive dialogue with the West. The problem, however, is that Israel's repeated attacks over the past period, especially against Lebanon's Allah Party, have greatly stimulated Iran's domestic hardliners and domestic public opinion.
Iran President Pezekhitsian. Source: CCTV News
"From Iran's perspective, this missile attack is more of a normal response to domestic hardliners." This could further increase regional uncertainty, but Iran has already announced the end of the counterattack, and judging by the subsequent response, Iran does not encourage its regional allies to attack. Therefore, the impact of this attack on the regional situation is relatively moderate. Wang Jin analyzed.
So, how will Israel respond to a missile attack?
Wang Jin believes that Israel will fight back with greater force. He pointed out that the missile attack actually caused considerable losses to Israel. Second, public opinion in Israel has shown a more unified call for retaliation. In addition, the Israel military and various political camps have demanded a strong response from Israel. "On the whole, Israel may respond to this missile attack by Iran."
Regarding the specific form of Israel's retaliation, Wang Jin analyzed that it is either to carry out long-range strikes against targets in Iran, or to send sabotage teams to counterattack nuclear facilities in Iran, "in general, against Iran's nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure." ”
The escalation of the conflict between Lebanon and Israel may further expand the risk of regional conflicts
According to Xinhua News Agency, Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, was hit by Israel air strikes in the early morning of the 3rd, killing at least 6 people.
This follows a sharp escalation of the conflict between Lebanon's Allah Party and Israel following the explosion of a pager in Lebanon on September 17. On 27 September, Lebanon's Allah leader Nasrallah was killed in an Israel airstrike on the southern outskirts of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, shocking the international community. Israel's Defense Minister Yoyaf · Galant said on 30 September that the next phase of the war against Lebanon's Allah party would begin soon.
Entering October, the situation of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict became more tense.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement in the early hours of October 1 saying that Israeli forces had begun a "limited ground operation" against Allah targets in the southern border area of Lebanon. This is also the first time in 18 years that the Israel army has launched a ground operation against Lebanon to strike at Allah military targets. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health said in the early hours of the same day that Israel had launched attacks on Lebanon in the past 24 hours, killing 95 people and injuring 172. On the same day, Lebanon's Allah party fired missiles into northern Israel.
On the morning of 2 October, heavy fighting took place between Lebanon Allah and the Israel Defense Forces in the southern border area of Lebanon.
The southern suburbs of Beirut after an airstrike. Source: CCTV News
Will the Lebanese-Israeli conflict escalate further? Will the situation in the Middle East get out of control?
"The conflict between Israel and Lebanon will escalate further." Wang Jin said that Israel's strategic goal is to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and ground troops have also entered Lebanon. Israel's military campaign will not stop, which means that the conflict with Lebanon's Allah party will continue to escalate. Moreover, as the number of casualties increases, the scope, frequency, and intensity of future bombing will also be further escalated. This will inevitably lead to a spiraling of conflicts between the two sides.
Wang Jin pointed out that for the entire Middle East region, new risks of conflict may also arise. In particular, forces such as the Yemen Houthis, which have close ties to Lebanon's Allah Party, are likely to launch attacks on Israel, raising the risk of future regional conflicts.
According to CCTV news reports, at 8 o'clock local time on October 3, the Houthis in Yemen issued a statement saying that the Houthis used a number of "Jaffa" drones to successfully strike targets in Tel Aviv, Israel. The drone was not detected and intercepted by the Israel side during the flight. The Houthis will continue to operate until the end of Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the statement said.
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