The situation in the Middle East has continued to escalate in recent days. After the Israel military attacked targets such as Houthi-controlled ports and power stations in Yemen on September 29, it announced ground strikes on Allah targets in southern Lebanon on October 1 and air strikes on the Palestinian Gaza Strip and Syria on October 2. In response to Israel's recent series of actions, Iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile at Israel on the evening of the 1st.
Analysts pointed out that the situation in the Middle East has taken a sharp turn for the worse in the past two weeks, showing a trend of multi-point contagion, and the spillover effect is becoming more and more significant. The risk of full-scale war in the Middle East has increased, and subsequent developments will largely depend on Israel's next steps.
This photograph released on September 30 shows Israeli forces on the Israeli side of the border between Israel and Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement in the early hours of October 1 saying that Israeli forces had begun a "limited ground operation" against Allah targets in the southern border area of Lebanon. Xinhua News Agency (Photo courtesy of Israel Defense Forces)
Military conflicts spread in many places
Since the explosion of communications equipment in Lebanon in September this year, the Lebanese-Israeli conflict has escalated sharply. Israel has continuously "targeted and eliminated" a number of high-ranking Allah figures, including Lebanon Allah leader Nasrallah. The Israeli army issued a statement in the early morning of the 1st saying that it had begun a "limited ground operation" against Lebanese Allah targets in the southern border area of Lebanon, and then carried out ground strikes and air strikes on Lebanon. Lebanese military sources revealed on the 2nd that Allah Party of Lebanon had a fierce exchange of fire with Israel commandos who had entered the southern border area of Lebanon that morning. In the early morning of the 3rd, the Israeli army attacked a health facility in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, resulting in at least six deaths.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on the evening of the 1st, saying that Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel that night in retaliation for Israel's recent series of actions. According to Iran's state television, Iran launched more than 200 missiles on the night of the 1st and used Fatah hypersonic missiles for the first time. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Hagari called Iran's attack a "serious and dangerous escalation" and that Israel would respond to the Iran attack, at a time and place that Israel would decide.
On 1 October, a projectile intercepted by Israeli air defense systems flew over Jerusalem. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Junqing
In addition, Israeli forces launched air strikes on the Gaza Strip and Syria on October 2 after a massive campaign on Yemen's Houthi-controlled ports, power stations and other targets on September 29.
Ali · Moussa, a researcher at the Rafd Center for Media and Strategic Studies in Iraq, pointed out that Israel is currently fighting against Lebanon's Allah Party, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and the Houthis in Yemen, and the fighting has intensified.
Yoram · Meta, a professor at Ben-Gurion University in the Negev in Israel, believes that a series of recent events have increased the risk of a full-scale war in the Middle East.
Regional instability is growing
Analysts have pointed out that the intensification of the turbulence in the Middle East is fundamentally due to the fact that the right-wing government of Israel is bent on carrying out military action out of domestic political interests, and United States has provided unlimited support to Israel.
This is the United States Capitol photographed in Washington, the capital of United States, on April 23. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie
United States President Biden said on the 2nd that Iran's attack on Israel was "excessive" and that the G7 would impose sanctions on Iran. United States does not support Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities as part of retaliation.
Jordan political analyst Mashhur · Abu · Eid believes that Israel's continued military operations in the Gaza Strip and now it has begun to turn to Lebanon and Iran in an attempt to establish a Middle East order by United States standards is the reason for the deterioration and escalation of the regional situation.
Israel's current leadership relies on an alliance that derives political benefits from the escalating hostilities, and Netanyahu's government sees the conflict as a means to strengthen national unity and divert attention from domestic contentious issues, Metaler said. The United States government currently has limited influence over Israel's decision-making. The Israel military sees the current situation as a unique opportunity to eliminate the threat posed by Palestinian organizations and Lebanon Allah.
Base·l Akull, editor-in-chief of the website Jordan 24, said that United States political, military and diplomatic support for Israel has allowed Israel to continue to attack its neighbors with force, causing the conflict to drag on.
The Israeli side decides the direction of decision-making
After Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, Israel said it crossed a red line and said it would make Iran pay. The United States Akxios news website reported on the 2nd, citing Israel officials, that "all options for Israel's retaliatory actions will be on the table," including strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran Atomic Energy Organization Chairman Islami said on the 2nd that Iran's armed forces are ready to respond to Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Analysts pointed out that Iran has still exercised restraint in attacking Israel's military and security targets. How the situation develops in the future will depend on the Israeli response.
Moussa believes that judging from the damage caused by the Israeli side on the 1st, Iran's counterattack is still "fighting according to the rules" and has not hit Israel's civilian infrastructure and important military facilities. Iran does not want to trigger a full-scale war, and the main consideration of the strike is to calm domestic and allied sentiment.
Israel Defense Minister Gallant (first from left) and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Al-Halevi (center) at an Israeli air base during an Israeli air raid on Lebanon's Allah headquarters on September 27. Xinhua News Agency (Photo courtesy of Israel Ministry of Defense)
Michael · Mirstein, director of the Palestine Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University in Israel, said that the killing of Nasrallah by Israeli forces has seriously damaged Iran's image and influence. From Tehran's point of view, they must respond violently to the Israeli attack. But at the same time, Iran is trying to avoid a full-scale war.
Fayek · Hijazin, former director of the Jordan News Agency, pointed out that whether the conflict will continue to escalate into a full-scale war depends on how Israel retaliates for Iran's missile attacks and the situation on the front line in Lebanon. If Israel does not stop, the situation will deteriorate.
Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Outer Chinese University in Shanghai, said that the key to how the situation changes in the future lies in whether the Israel will retaliate fiercely against Iran. But Israel knows that if an air attack on Iran's energy facilities or even nuclear facilities is tantamount to a full-scale declaration of war against Iran. And Iran has the ability to expand the range of strikes. A full-scale war between Iran and Israel could have incalculable consequences for both countries and the entire Middle East. Iran also knows this.
Source: Xinhua News Agency