Morgan Stanley's wave of "cold water splashing on the face" really made many shareholders wake up, especially after the wave of craze around the National Day. Before the holiday, the trading volume of A-shares skyrocketed, the market was jubilant, and many people began to look forward to the good days of "the bull market is coming, and the red envelopes are being delivered".
But Morgan Stanley is different, people have always been calm, and they probably don't want to follow us blindly. Their expectation of a 10%-15% increase in A-shares in 2024 is compared with the fantasy of "a bull market soaring several times" in many people's hearts, which instantly makes the pre-holiday frenzy a little embarrassing. Especially think about the bull market in 2014, which rose stunningly, from 2,000 points all the way to 5,000 points, soaring by 150%; Looking at 2019, although it is not so thrilling, the 60% increase is exciting enough. And now? Morgan Stanley tells you to stop dreaming about the increase of 10%-15% next year, which is like when you are about to set off firecrackers to celebrate, and suddenly someone splashes a basin of cold water.
In fact, Morgan Stanley's prediction is not unreasonable. We have to admit that the current market environment is different from that in 2014 and 2019, the global economy is slowly recovering, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are also changing, and although domestic economic stimulus policies continue to be introduced, the overall economic growth rate is indeed slowing down. In this complex context, the enthusiasm of A-shares obviously needs to be supported by a more realistic foundation, rather than just relying on emotional fanaticism.
Of course, the future of A-shares cannot be completely denied. The development momentum of emerging industries such as new energy and artificial intelligence is still very good, and the fundamentals of the market are not dark. Therefore, although the overall increase may not be as crazy as before, as long as you find a good industry and a good company, there are still opportunities to make money. For those who hold the idea of "buy and earn", this Morgan Stanley cold water is also a reminder: you can't get rich by buying just a stock, especially when the valuations of some companies are already ridiculously high, and the future growth potential may be overdrawn.
Faced with this situation, what should ordinary investors do? On the one hand, Morgan Stanley's cautious attitude reminds us not to be blindly optimistic, and it is easiest to be impulsive when the market is hot; On the other hand, the optimism of the market cannot be ignored, after all, the favorable policies and the rise of emerging industries have indeed given a lot of impetus to A-shares. The most important thing here is to have a strategy, what strategy? It's the kind of strategy that allows you to be calm when the market rises fiercely, and not panic when it falls sharply. Maybe it's looking for blue-chip stocks with reasonable valuations, maybe it's investing in growth stocks with good fundamentals and a clear outlook, in short, don't chase the ups and downs.
Overall, Morgan Stanley's prediction is actually a reminder that the market cannot always be smooth sailing, and the future of A-shares may usher in both surprises and challenges. Those seemingly conservative judgments may remind us that investing requires rationality and strategy, and it is easier to make the right decision when we calm down after emotional fanaticism. Fluctuations in the stock market are the norm, but only by staying calm and knowing what to expect in the midst of volatility can it be possible to truly "beat" the market.
So in the end, the editor would like to ask: What does Morgan Stanley's "cold water" make you think about the market after the holiday? Will you continue to follow the optimism, or will you choose to cool down a little and look for more secure investment opportunities? What do you think about this?