Today's blockbuster news really makes shareholders not calm, whether it is short or full, this mood is like sitting at the highest point of a roller coaster, full of "next is a surge or free fall". United States' September non-farm payrolls data not only far exceeded expectations, but also discounted the Fed's interest rate cut hopes. The 50 basis point interest rate cut that I was looking forward to is now only looking forward to 25, which feels like waiting for a red envelope for a long time, but I got half of it, and there is a little "pit" in my hand.
For A-share investors, this is a bit like a "college entrance examination question": this wave of surge before the National Day, the Shanghai Composite Index has jumped from 2689 points all the way to more than 3300 points, which makes everyone very excited, as if they have seen the shadow of a bull market. As a result, at such a bullish stall, there was a "Fed interest rate cut discount", which made the whole rhythm chaotic in an instant. I thought that this time I could see the relay of big funds and the market continued to be hot, but it was so troubled by the non-agricultural data, and the market may become a "high platform diving" if you are not careful.
Investors with short positions now seem to be locked out of the dance floor, the music is on, everyone is dancing, but they can't get in, watching the market swish up, and they are afraid of stepping short if they don't enter. But those friends who are full of warehouses before the holiday may not be comfortable, they rush up with the market, and now there is a sudden cooling, and they begin to worry about whether the market is too fast, and the "body" can't keep up with the rhythm. This is the rhythm of the typical stock market "you are in heaven at the moment, and you may go to hell in the next second", while anxious about missing out, and anxious about cutting in half.
In fact, this complex emotion is inseparable from the inherent law of the A-share market. To put it bluntly, if the stock market rises fast, there will be no less adjustments, and it will never be possible to soar all the way to the sky, right? Just like the short market before the National Day, people who forced short positions to chase all the way, but there may be pressure to adjust after the holiday - the so-called "things must be reversed" is staged every day in the stock market. At this time, there is the Federal Reserve's "interest rate cut and shrinkage" to add to the fire, and the emotional tension is like a wok that has been stirred together, and no one knows where the next fierce fire will burn.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have disrupted many people's expectations for global capital flows. Originally, I thought that the interest rate cut would mean that liquidity would be loose and money would flow to emerging markets, and A-shares would naturally have the opportunity to make a fortune with the water. As a result, now that interest rate cuts are going to be curtailed, hot money may not be able to enter in a big way, and may even flow back to the United States, which makes everyone's expectations suddenly become "disappointed". And capital is the "blood" of the stock market, when funds are tight, the market will naturally be tight, and shareholders are more sensitive than anyone else.
In this situation, whether it is an empty warehouse or a full warehouse, it is like being sandwiched between two stones. Those who are short are afraid that if the market continues to rise, they will definitely regret it in their hearts; But the people with full warehouses are also afraid that the opening after the holiday will be adjusted, and the money will be spit back before it is hot. National Day was supposed to be a day of relaxation, but for stockholders, it became a torment outside the stock market, counting down on the day of the end of the holiday, but I didn't know whether I was waiting for a "red envelope" or a "bomb".
However, at the end of the day, the ups and downs of the stock market are part of the laws of the market. Relying on the dream of making quick money with short-term fluctuations, how many people have been slapped in the face? The market is volatile, especially with increasing global uncertainty, and no one dares to say whether the next skyrocket will be or the plunge. Therefore, whether it is short or full, the important thing is the mentality and strategy. Chasing up and down is all caused by emotions, and rational investment is about "knowing in your heart", and there are countermeasures for both ups and downs.
So in the end, I would like to ask: are you waiting for an opportunity with a short position, or is it full of ups and downs? Will this sudden downside make you re-examine your strategy? What do you think about this?