The situation in the Middle East is becoming more and more tense.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on the evening of the 1st, saying that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps aviation units have just fired dozens of ballistic missiles at important military and security targets in Israel in retaliation for Israel's series of actions. The statement said the missile attack was launched in accordance with Iran's legitimate right to self-defense under the UN Charter. The operation was approved by the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and was carried out under the instructions of the General Staff of the Iran Armed Forces.
Immediately, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Pezeshiziyan respectively posted on social media to explain and explain Iran's missile attack on Israel. Khamenei said that "the Resistance Front will be even more devastating against the Israel regime". Pezeshchisyan issued a statement saying, "Iran has responded strongly to Israel's aggression based on its legitimate rights and with the goal of national and regional peace and security." Iran's move is to defend Iran's interests and people and let Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu know that Iran is not a belligerent country, but firmly opposes any threats. ”
In response to Iran's counterattack, Israel has shown its usual toughness. Israel's military spokesman Hagari said the missile attack by Iran was serious and would have consequences.
United States the counterattack against Iran appeared as a direct participant, United States presidential national security adviser Sullivan and United States Defense Department spokesman Ryder said at the White House and Defense Department briefings respectively that Iran "will face sanctions consequences from United States" after attacking Israel. Ryder also added that Iran's actions "will have security and economic consequences."
In other words, although the United States has previously made it clear that it did not participate in the assassinations of Hamas and Lebanon Allah leaders in Israel. However, it is not difficult to see from the reaction to Iran's missile attack on Israel that United States has not only been involved in a series of events before, but is likely to be a direct mastermind. Otherwise, one should not be so sensitive to Iran's attack on Israel as a combatant.
Since both United States and Israel have reacted so strongly, it means that the situation in the Middle East will be more tense and difficult to control in the next step. Most likely, Israel will carry out the same attacks and violations against the Houthis in Yemen and against Yemen after the attack on Lebanon's Allah Party and the Lebanon aggression is completed. If all goes well, attacks and violations against Iran cannot be ruled out.
It is worth noting that in response to Israel's previous aggressions, Iran was generally relatively restrained, only making some thunderous and small rain movements, and did not react violently. It's not that Iran is really afraid of Israel, it's that it doesn't want to further deteriorate relations with United States. However, the United States does not seem to be satisfied with this, but continues to demand various reactions from Israel, provoking trouble against Iran from multiple levels, and finally making the Iran side unbearable, and finally making a counterattack.
Although Iran's attack on Israel this time was relatively strong, according to the Iran side, a total of 200 missiles were fired into Israel, 90% of which hit the target, and a large number of Israeli tanks were destroyed in the Gaza Strip, and the "Fatah" hypersonic missile was used for the first time to target the radar of the Israeli army's anti-missile system. However, we can still only describe Iran's attack as a "counterattack". The reason is that Iran did not take the initiative to attack Israel, but was forced by Israel to the root of the wall and was forced to use counterattack methods. But as long as Israel refrains from frequently attacking Iran, Iran will not fight back.
UN Secretary-General Guterres' response to Iran's counterattack was also more objective and rational, and he did not directly blame Iran, but used this phrase on social media: "I condemn the expanding and escalating conflict in the Middle East." This phenomenon must stop. We absolutely need a ceasefire. ”
It is not difficult to see that Guterres has a certain understanding of Iran's counterattack against Israel. If it were not for Israel's repeated challenges to Iran, Iran would never have taken the initiative to challenge Israel. To condemn Iran's actions would be to show that the United Nations is too impartial. As a result, Guterres has adopted a relatively fair and just narrative to condemn the expanding and escalating conflict in the Middle East. And the root of the problem is obviously in Israel and United States.
So, will Israel finally attack Iran? It may be due to three factors. First, the results of Israel's attacks on Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. If all goes well, the probability of attacking Iran will increase significantly; The second is to look at the results of the presidential election in United States, if Trump is elected, the probability of attacking Iran decreases, otherwise, the probability will increase greatly. Even if Trump has spoken harshly, he will not let Israel directly fight Iran; The third is to see if there are any new actions in Iran's follow-up, if not, the probability of Israel attacking Iran will decrease, otherwise, it will increase. And judging by Iran's attitude towards this matter, there will be no new actions. The premise is that Israel does not launch a large-scale attack on Iran's territory. Otherwise, it's still unpredictable.
On the whole, the risk of Israel attacking Iran is present and not small, but it is unlikely that it will attack Lebanon and Yemen. Israel knows in its heart, and United States knows in its heart, that once a large-scale war with Iran breaks out, the consequences will be too serious to predict, and United States should not let Israel take this risk, and United States does not want to fall into the vortex of war again. One Iraq has already made United States sad in the Middle East for a long time, and if there is another more difficult Iran, United States will really be mired in the quagmire of war in the Middle East. Even if you don't personally participate in the war, let Israel do it, it will have a big impact.