Text | Coco Effort
Edit | Coco Effort
It is said that I have a koi physique, and those who pay attention to me will not have too bad luck! If you want to have a lot of money, start by paying attention! I wish you a lot of money and money!
Golden autumn October, should be the autumn wind bleak, the season of falling leaves, but the A-share market is abnormal, showing a hot scene, the policy of the spring breeze blowing, for the market to inject a strong momentum, investors enthusiasm, trading volume has repeatedly hit new highs, behind this capital carnival feast, there are also hidden some hidden worries, can the trading system withstand this huge pressure? Can the strong performance of Hong Kong stocks be sustained? Will there be a change in foreign investors' attitudes? This series of questions is worthy of our in-depth consideration
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Looking back at September, the A-share market has experienced a wave of remarkable strong rebound, since September 24, the market has opened a continuous multi-day rising mode, and the trading volume has also risen, breaking through the 2.6 trillion yuan mark, hitting a new high in the year
The good news of the policy is like a shot in the arm, quickly transmitted in the market, which has stimulated the enthusiasm of investors, institutional investors have increased their positions, and individual investors have also actively entered the market, for fear of missing this rare opportunity to make money
Behind this prosperity, there are also hidden some problems that can not be ignored, the hot market of the A-share market, put forward higher requirements for the trading system, on the morning of September 27, the Shanghai Stock Exchange trading system had a short period of "downtime" due to the "burst" market, which undoubtedly sounded the alarm for the market, in order to cope with the possible larger trading volume in the future, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange decided to test the whole network on October 7 to ensure the stable operation of the trading system
The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will simulate the real trading environment, conduct a comprehensive test of the trading system to test its operation under high load conditions, and the test scope covers securities accounts, trading units, designated transactions and other aspects, and strive to comprehensively evaluate the performance and stability of the trading system
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Brokerages are also taking active action to fully prepare for market fluctuations, some brokerages in the case of a surge in trading volume on September 30, launched a backup site to ease the pressure on the main station and ensure the smooth progress of transactions
In addition to the A-share market, the Hong Kong stock market also performed eye-catching during the National Day holiday, out of a wave of independent market, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 7.59% and 10% respectively, an astonishing increase, since September 11, the Hang Seng Index has rebounded by more than 28%, and the year's increase is as high as 33.37%, ranking among the best in the world's major indexes, and the performance is very bright
The strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market is inseparable from multiple factors, the expectation of loose global liquidity is heating up, and funds have begun to flow back to emerging markets
The continued strength of the Hong Kong stock market has also played a positive role in driving the A-share market, and the valuation difference between AH shares may attract some funds from H-shares to return to A-shares, thereby pushing up the trend of the A-share market, and the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market has also enhanced investors' confidence in China's economy, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of the A-share market
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It is worth noting that the Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States have also continued their previous strong performance, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has risen by 39% in the past two weeks, up as much as 2256 points, and the strong rebound of Chinese concept stocks is due to the continuous release of favorable domestic policies on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is also related to the expectation of a soft landing of the United States economy
According to the research report released by CICC, the recent continuous rise in Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks has attracted the attention of some active foreign investors, and the data shows that this week, overseas active funds turned into inflows of US$190 million into A-shares and US$120 million in Hong Kong stocks and ADRs, although the scale is not large, but this is the first time since the end of June 2023 that the outflows have turned into net inflows after 65 consecutive weeks, releasing a positive signal
CICC also reminded investors that the continued inflow of active foreign capital needs to be supported by more favorable policies and more optimistic expectations, and in the future, with the gradual emergence of domestic policy effects and the improvement of the profitability of listed companies, it is believed that more active foreign investors will choose to increase their positions in Chinese assets
Dai Kang, chief asset research officer of GF Securities Development Research Center, believes that the rebound of the A-share market is mainly due to the timely adjustment of domestic policies and the arrival of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, he pointed out that the domestic policy has been very smart in taking advantage of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle window, providing a rare respite for the A-share market
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Dai Kang compares the current A-share market to a patient who is undergoing treatment, he believes that the previous policy strength is like giving medicine to the patient, and the current policy strength is like giving the patient a drip, the drug effect is stronger, the effect is faster, he is full of confidence in the future of the A-share market, that the market has come out of the darkest moment, the future will usher in a brighter prospect
In terms of investment strategy, Dai Kang suggested that investors divide their funds into two parts: stable and highly elastic assets, for moderate investors, they can choose to allocate some blue chips with low valuation and high dividends to obtain stable investment returns, and for investors with higher risk appetite, they can choose to allocate some high-growth and high-elasticity technology stocks to win higher investment returns
Dai Kang particularly emphasized that in the current market environment, investors need to pay close attention to changes in market sentiment and maintain a rational investment mentality, and he reminded investors that the market is always right, not to try to predict the market, but to follow the trend of the market and follow the trend
The latest research report released by the strategy team of Minsheng Securities also shows that the current investor sentiment in the A-share market is relatively optimistic, and the risk appetite of institutional and individual investors has rebounded
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The strategy team of Minsheng Securities also reminded investors that they need to pay attention to possible changes in institutional sentiment in the future, as the current institutional investment sentiment has approached the high point since 2018, the future upside is limited, and once the institutional sentiment turns inflectible, it may have a certain impact on the market
Overall, the A-share market is currently in a relatively favorable period after the previous adjustment, with favorable policies continuing to be released, market sentiment gradually picking up, and relatively loose funds, all of which provide strong support for the healthy development of the A-share market
We should also be soberly aware that the A-share market is still facing some challenges, and factors such as the slowdown in global economic growth and the intensification of geopolitical risks may have a certain impact on the market
Looking ahead, the A-share market is still full of opportunities and challenges, and it is believed that with the continuous development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of the capital market, the A-share market will become more mature and rational, creating more lucrative returns for investors
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External factors such as the slowdown in global economic growth and the intensification of geopolitical risks may have a certain impact on the A-share market, and internal factors such as the pain of domestic economic restructuring and the slowdown in corporate earnings growth cannot be ignored
In the face of these challenges, we must not only maintain confidence, but also remain vigilant, pay close attention to the changes in the domestic and foreign economic situation, adjust investment strategies in a timely manner, do a good job in risk prevention, adhere to the concept of value investment, choose listed companies with good performance and good development prospects for investment, and avoid blindly following the trend and speculation
I believe that with the joint efforts of all parties, the A-share market will be able to overcome the current difficulties and usher in a better tomorrow.
You are welcome to leave a message in the comment area to share your views and outlook on the A-share market, and how do you think the A-share market will perform in the future? Which sectors or individual stocks are worth watching? Let's discuss, learn and progress together!
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