Text | New knowledge of science and technology
Since the beginning of this year, the market has been optimistic about the smart glasses industry, believing that it is expected to open the next round of innovation cycle of consumer electronics. In late September, Snap and Meta held two top press conferences, bringing the AR market into a new cycle.
In fact, the AR glasses market is in a stage of rapid development and change. Frankly speaking, this period of time is a critical moment for domestic and foreign AR companies to compete for the "right to speak" in the industry. Major manufacturers are "gearing up" at the technology, product and market levels to occupy a leading position.
At this critical juncture, the news that the domestic AR company Thunderbird Innovation has completed a new round of financing delivery has spread far and wide. According to Thunderbird Innovation, its total financing in the past six months has exceeded 500 million yuan, and it will invest funds in technology and large-scale production and construction.
Obviously, in the AR market full of variables, Thunderbird Innovation does not want to be the one left behind. It's just that on the eve of the outbreak of the industry, what are the advantages and disadvantages of Thunderbird's innovative two-line strategy in terms of market, technology and cost? In addition to hardware, what kind of problems does the application ecology and consumer group education bring to it? Outside of opportunities, how much pressure is there on Thunderbird to innovate?
Double-line betting, AI glasses are making a comeback
Today's smart glasses market can attract much attention, which is inseparable from the success of Meta's second-generation smart AI glasses product RayBan Meta.
According to TheVerge data, RayBan Meta's global sales may have exceeded 1 million pairs by May 2024. The reason for the big sale is also very simple, that is, the technical investment and cost related to the display screen were abandoned, and the price was reduced to 299 US dollars, successfully opening up the mass consumer market.
The so-called "AI glasses" are based on ordinary glasses with AI functions added, and are considered to be a transitional product from traditional glasses to AR glasses. Different from AR glasses, which focus on the combination of virtual and reality, AI glasses pay more attention to improving voice interaction capabilities through AI.
It is also in this context that a number of domestic AR smart glasses manufacturers have been given an opportunity to open the second growth curve, and Thunderbird is one of them. In the purpose of financing, it also indicates that it will deepen the research and development of AI+AR technology and the expansion of AR production, research and manufacturing base.
According to Meta's logic of "glasses first and AI later", it seems that it is a more correct choice to cooperate with traditional glasses manufacturers. The same goes for Thunderbird, which now has a joint venture after establishing a joint laboratory with Dr. Eyewear in 2022.
As an "AI provider", Thunderbird needs a complete supply chain of traditional eyewear manufacturers, as well as mature retail channels. Theoretically, these stores can be expanded as a sales channel for Thunderbird's innovative new generation of AI glasses to attract more traditional glasses users.
However, the reality is that the domestic retail environment is very different from that abroad. If AI glasses are regarded as consumer electronics products, they will involve multiple links such as pre-sales experience and after-sales service, which also leads to their transaction scenes almost not in the store, and it is difficult to say that someone will go to the optical store to buy a pair of smart glasses. Most transactions will still go to e-commerce platforms, or offline 3C stores, and a simple logic for consumers is, "at least don't worry about after-sales problems".
Compared with Huawei, Xiaomi, the two 3C giants, the official website of Dr. Glasses cooperated by Thunderbird shows that Dr. Glasses has opened more than 500 chain stores in Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai and other places. However, by the end of 2023, Huawei had established more than 60,000 stores and counters around the world. Xiaomi has more than 12,000 offline retail stores in Chinese mainland.
In addition, mobile phone manufacturers mostly operate channels with the positioning of experience centers, and almost all ecological products are collected in stores, and through early market education, it is normal for consumers to buy rice cookers, vacuum cleaners and other life products in stores such as Xiaomi and Huawei.
Therefore, if compared with XR peers, the cooperation between Thunderbird and traditional glasses manufacturers may be able to achieve certain advantages in the channel, but compared with the giants that have entered the market so far, it is also a world of difference.
However, it cannot be denied that China's myopic population is nearly 700 million, and the proportion of myopia among target users of smart glasses will be higher, and professional glasses fitting terminals will play a vital role in the tide of smart glasses. In cooperation with Dr. Glasses, whether Thunderbird Innovation will definitely be able to gnaw the hard bone of smart glasses, it actually depends on product power and market power.
Previously, Meizu MYVU glasses had also entered the national offline stores of Dr. Glasses, but it did not set off a big wave. It is true that the cooperation between Thunderbird Innovation and Bose Glasses is more in-depth and comprehensive, but compared with Essilor-Luxottica and Ray-Ban, Bose Glasses cannot be compared with it in terms of supply chain and brand, and the actual chemical reaction and thrust that can be played remain to be seen.
Application and ecology, it is difficult to cross two mountains
Backed by the world's strongest hardware supply chain, domestic smart glasses manufacturers face problems not in hardware, but in application and ecology, whether they are making AI glasses or AR glasses.
AI glasses, in essence, are part of the development of AR glasses, because of the lack of display technology, so it is easy to land in application scenarios, but it is also very limited, and can only focus on audio-based functions such as translation, navigation, and music.
Even so, the gap between the different products is significant. As a global social giant, Meta has a large number of strong social products, so Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses well support the live video and video call functions of Meta platforms such as Instagram and Message, and can also easily post the photos taken to the platform, which can take advantage of better cameras and shooting quality.
In fact, this is also the core selling point that attracts many people to buy. However, at present, domestic manufacturers, including Huawei and Xiaomi, only support simple voice functions, which is more like an eye with a smart headset function. Even if you add a camera, if you don't connect to WeChat, Douyin, Xiaohongshu and other platforms, you won't have much use, and you can only increase the cost and weight. In this way, how to build AI glasses for Thunderbird also needs to be seriously considered.
Of course, AI glasses will only be a transitional product to attract a wider range of potential user groups to see AR, and AR glasses are the Rome of Thunderbird and even the industry, so AR ecological construction is also a long-term strategic commanding height.
It is reported that Thunderbird has long begun to lay out the ecological construction of developer services and RayNeo OS self-developed systems, providing developers with AI Studio low-code development platform and AI Store co-creation community. However, these are also industry consensus and infrastructure, and almost all related brands also have their own developer co-creation communities, but these communities have not yet given birth to a "killer" application in the AR industry.
Indeed, the current development of the content ecology of AR glasses is very limited, and there is still a considerable distance from the content ecology of smartphones. For consumer-level AR glasses players, if they can't wait for the "hot model" on the application side, they can only "put new wine in old pots" and borrow the content ecology of smartphones for the time being. However, whether users are willing to make AR glasses relegate to the status of "high-end accessories" of smartphones has also become a question that Thunderbirds need to consider.
In addition to the application ecosystem, AR, as an emerging market, does not have the ability to directly change people's lifestyles like the iPhone 4, so it needs to invest a lot of resources in consumer education and market cultivation, so that consumers can gradually accept and get used to using this new device. In this process, AR companies not only need to have a solid technical precipitation, but also need to have enough patience and perseverance, which is another challenge for Thunderbird.
The market is scrambling to challenge the threshold of one million sales
The current AR industry is in an era of hundreds of schools of thought.
With the popularity of AI glasses, some large domestic manufacturers are also competing to release new products this year. In mid-April this year, the Xiaomi Mijia Smart Audio Glasses Joy Edition was officially launched; In May, Huawei released smart glasses equipped with the HarmonyOS 4 operating system and connected to the Pangu AI model. In September, ByteDance wholly acquired Oladance, which is considered an important step in the layout of the AI glasses field.
If you divide these companies into three categories, the first is XR-related companies, who see AI glasses as a transitional product for the ultimate VR device, and Thunderbird is like that; The second group is large model-related companies, who believe that AI glasses are one of the important scenarios for the landing of large models, such as bytes; The third category is hardware manufacturers, who see AI glasses as a more intelligent next-generation product, such as Huawei.
Looking at these companies closely, Byte is a huge traffic pool, and it has an e-commerce platform itself, once AI glasses are launched, they will not have the upper hand in promotion; More importantly, Huawei and Xiaomi, the two 3C giants, in addition to their own traffic and brand voice, are even more "invincible" in the channel.
Surrounded by wolves abroad, and divided by domestic heroes, every step must be stable and accurate enough, but there are also huge opportunities behind this.
According to the "China VR/AR Devices Retail Market Monthly Tracker" report released by Lotu Technology (RUNTO), in the first half of 2024, the omni-channel sales of China's consumer XR devices (including AR and VR) will be 261,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%. Among them, the sales of AR devices increased by 49% year-on-year, which not only reflects the market's recognition of AR technology, but also indicates that the AR industry is about to usher in a new explosive period.
Another important point is the cost, it should be emphasized that although the cost of Orion just released by Meta is more than 10,000 US dollars, thanks to the gradual maturity of the technology, the cost of some devices of AR glasses is gradually declining, and the price of some key devices has dropped by nearly 30%, bringing greater opportunities for the market to further explode.
Judging from the current market data, Thunderbird has gone through the stage of 0 to 1. However, other domestic leading companies have also launched more and more AR products with innovative functional designs and for different scenarios and needs, and unlimited AR glasses with access to AIGC, and players represented by Huawei and Meizu are also promoting the integration of AR technology and smart glasses to seize the market share of the middle and waist. All companies are constantly refreshing the market and users' perception of AR technology to seize market opportunities.
In addition, a number of AR companies have also received large amounts of financing, and it can be said that there is not much difference between mainstream AR companies in terms of technology and capital. According to the forecast of Lotu Technology (RUNTO), the sales scale of AR devices in all channels will only reach 281,000 units in 2024.
Although the market development space of AR equipment is broad, but on a global scale, the annual shipment volume has not reached the million level, and it has not yet reached the scope of mass consumer goods. Under the small market, Thunderbird's leading position is not secure, and anyone may complete overtaking.
Overall, the development of AI+AR still faces many challenges. First of all, there are still bottlenecks at the technical level, such as high-precision map construction and real-time data processing. Secondly, privacy and security issues should not be overlooked, especially when it comes to the collection and processing of personal data. In addition, the high cost and limited application scenarios are also important factors restricting the popularity of AR devices.
For Thunderbird, the integration of AI and AR is not only the superposition of simple technologies, but also an upgrade and change in the way of interaction and information presentation. The continuous innovation of technology, the competitive pressure of the market and the uncertainty of user acceptance are all problems that Thunderbird needs to face and solve.
Finally, for all AR-related enterprises, we must not passively wait for the emergence of the outlet, how to cultivate the user community and create an application ecology, we need more than just the participation of an AR company, only to create a recyclable AR ecology, through healthy competition to promote ecological construction, in order to achieve the AR explosion.