After Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba came to power, the first foreign visiting country was set to attend the ASEAN summit held here in Laos. So, what is the purpose of Shi Pomao's first visit to Laos? What kind of variables might the new prime minister's appointment bring to Sino-Japanese relations?
Recently, Shigeru Ishiba, the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, was officially elected prime minister of Japan. His appointment marks a new shift in Japan's future foreign policy, especially in the face of a complex international situation. According to the arrangement, Shigeru will attend the ASEAN summit in Vientiane, the capital of Laos, from October 8 to 11.
For him, this conference is not only an important diplomatic occasion, but also an opportunity to demonstrate his diplomatic ideas. However, his idea of an "Asian version of NATO" has aroused the alarm of the mainstream media in the ASEAN region, and Indonesia's Jakarta Post has made it clear that ASEAN countries should not be co-opted by Japan to confront China.
In the eyes of the Indonesian media, ASEAN is already an important trading partner of China, and has become China's largest trading partner since 2020. For ASEAN countries, there is no interest in Japan's idea of "Asian NATO", an alliance to counter China, Russia and North Korea, which is an offense to ASEAN, because participating in such a military alliance will only increase tensions in the region. In response, the Indonesian media warned Ishiba Shigeru in an editorial to refrain from his rhetoric so as not to "bring humiliation upon himself" at the ASEAN summit.
At the same time, the "diplomacy based on realistic national interests" mentioned by Shigeru Ishiba in his inaugural speech has also attracted the attention of the outside world. He stressed that he would build on the Japan-US alliance and strive to promote cooperation among "like-minded countries," a statement that was seen as a signal that he was trying to strengthen the Japan-US alliance to address regional security challenges. His remarks show a reflection on the foreign policies of former Prime Ministers Abe and Kishida, especially the security dilemma caused by relying too much on military means and ignoring foreign strategies.
From this point of view, in order to change this situation, Ishiba Shigeru may adopt a "soft and hard" diplomatic strategy, both to strengthen Japan's military capabilities and to seek to ensure national security through flexible diplomacy. His reflections on the Russia-Ukraine situation show that he hopes to learn from the lessons of history and seek a more balanced approach in international relations to achieve national stability and security. Clearly, at the ASEAN summit, Shigeru Ishiba is likely to show the leaders this new face of diplomacy as a way to win trust and cooperation.
However, ASEAN countries did not have high hopes for Shigeru's visit, mainly due to doubts about his leadership. This uncertainty has led ASEAN leaders to remain cautious in welcoming Shigeru Ishiba. Indonesian media reports have pointed out that Japan has reservations about the ability of Ishiba and his government to govern, so ASEAN leaders may be more pragmatic in their interactions with Ishiba and will not show excessive expectations for his policies.
However, it can also be seen from Shigeru Ishiba's inaugural speech that he emphasized the importance of dialogue and cooperation that he is likely to maintain a positive state for Sino-Japanese relations in the future. Japan's new foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, also said that if Japan continues to show an attitude of "disgust with China and South Korea", then Japan's diplomacy will not be able to proceed smoothly. He stressed that although there are many unresolved issues between the two countries, it is in the common interest of both sides to build a stable bilateral relationship through enhanced dialogue.
The Chinese side welcomes this and stresses the hope that Japan and China will work in the same direction to promote the sustained and healthy development of China-Japan relations along the right track. After all, judging by Ishiba's series of actions, even if he is ideologically a pragmatic rightist, his willingness and ability to improve Sino-Japanese relations should not be underestimated. Based on this, the attitude of the Japan government under his leadership toward China is still worth looking forward to. Of course, if he still harbors the illusion of promoting an "Asian version of NATO", then the warnings of the Indonesian media may also come true.
Overall, Shigeru Ishiba's visit to Laos was not only the beginning of his personal diplomatic activities, but also a strategic adjustment made by the new Japan government in the complex international situation. Although Ishiba is wary and skeptical from ASEAN countries, a successful communication of a commitment to cooperation and dialogue will help ease tensions and promote improved relations between China and Japan. In the future, whether Japan's foreign policy in Southeast Asia can be effectively implemented will directly affect its status and influence in the Asia-Pacific region, depending on how Shi Pomao himself grasps it.