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In the past, Apple was the absolute star of the fall conference. Everyone is eagerly awaiting the release of new iPhones, iPads, Macs, and more. Now, though, things seem to have changed a lot.
On October 7, Mark Gurman, a well-known ·Bloomberg reporter, published an article pointing out that Apple is gradually moving away from its traditional annual product release strategy. The reason for this change is that Apple's product line is now very extensive, including multiple iPhones, iPads, Macs, and AirPods, each with complex hardware and software systems. In this context, it is not realistic to update all these products at a frequency of once a year. Gurman further mentioned that products like the Apple Watch Ultra or iPhone SE don't need to be updated frequently. For marketing and other purposes, Apple may only maintain an annual update model for iPhones in the future.
Many netizens believe that Apple's updates in recent years are a bit "squeezing toothpaste", that is, the content of each update is relatively small and lacks enough innovation. Taking this year's iPhone 16 as an example, many netizens complained about its lack of sincerity, and most of the updated content is only a fine-tuning of the appearance, while the internal performance and technology have not been greatly improved. Netizens would like to see more significant innovations in new products. Apple's product updates in recent years have sometimes failed to meet consumers' expectations for innovation, which has led to a decrease in the willingness of some users to upgrade their devices. On the other hand, products like iPad and Apple Watch really don't need to be updated frequently. Frequent updates can be a bit annoying for users.
Apple's abandonment of the annual update model is undoubtedly good news for consumers. On the one hand, it means that they will be able to experience Apple's latest technologies and products more quickly; On the other hand, it may also reduce the frequency and cost of their purchase of new products.
For Apple, this can not only ensure the competitiveness of the iPhone, but also provide more flexibility to launch new products according to market demand and technological developments, ensuring that consumers can experience Apple's latest technology and design faster.
At present, the main players in the global market include Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, and VIVO, and in the third quarter of 2022, the market share of the top 5 companies reached 80%.
Currently, the global smartphone market is saturated. From the perspective of shipments, from 2010 to 2022, the scale of global smartphone shipments showed a trend of first rising and then stabilizing. In 2016, global mobile phone shipments peaked at 1.473 billion units, and then began to decline. In 2022, global smartphone shipments will be about 1.430 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
Looking back at China's smartphone market, China's smartphone shipments as a whole showed a trend of first growth and then decline from 2012 to 2023, with smartphone shipments declining for two consecutive years from 2021 to 2022, and shipments rebounding to 276 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%.
According to Edison Lee, an analyst at Jefferies, despite Apple's potential in the AI space, it is unlikely that AI will be the main driver of growth in the short term. He believes that Apple, as the only hardware and software integrator that can provide low-cost, personalized AI services, needs to improve the hardware of smartphones to truly support powerful AI features, and this goal may not be achieved until 2026 or 2027.
On September 10, by 2028, 54% of global smartphone shipments will be AI phones. According to the report, by 2024, 16% of global smartphone shipments will be AI phones, and this proportion is expected to increase to 54% by 2028. The AI mobile phone market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 63% between 2023 and 2028. This shift is expected to emerge first in the high-end models and then gradually expand into the mid-range smartphone market.
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