#秋日生活打卡季#
The first step is to measure the size of your income.
Circulation sector - Yunnan Baiyao circulation sector, the three-year historical compound growth rate of 11%, the year-on-year growth rate in 2017 was 7.9%, the industry growth rate was 8%, the impact of the two-invoice system on the circulation industry, take 8% as the future growth rate
Based on this, the three-year revenue of commercial circulation is calculated to be 15.427 billion yuan, 16.661 billion yuan and 17.994 billion yuan.
Baiyao series of drugs - sales have declined slightly in recent years, and the overall growth rate is negative, with an average growth rate of -1% in the past three years and a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5% in 2017
Based on this, the three-year revenue of drugs is calculated to be 5.043 billion yuan, 5.043 billion yuan, and 5.043 billion yuan.
Daily chemical sector - big health products have brand effect, and strong marketing efforts, maintain rapid development, three-year compound growth rate of 20.86%.
Based on this, the three-year revenue of daily chemicals is estimated to be 4.045 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.656 billion yuan.
Traditional Chinese medicine sector - the Chinese medicine sector was listed late, and its historical growth rate has no reference value, so the growth rate of the Chinese medicine decoction piece industry was adopted, and the growth rate of the Chinese herbal medicine industry in 2017 was 11%
Based on this, the three-year revenue of daily chemicals is estimated to be 1.29 billion yuan, 1.432 billion yuan and 1.589 billion yuan.
To sum up, Yunnan Baiyao's revenue from 2018 to 2020 is about 25.805 billion yuan, 28.636 billion yuan, and 31.282 billion yuan
Here, if the net profit margin is taken as the average of 13%, the net profit will be 3.355 billion yuan, 3.723 billion yuan, and 4.067 billion yuan.
The second step is to compare the comparable ranges of P/E ratios.
Yunnan Baiyao has a wide range of business, so we select three types of comparable companies of medicine + daily chemical + pharmaceutical circulation for comparison:
Let's look at medicine first:
Pien Tze Huang - historical PE interval 33-63 times; Tong Ren Tang - historical PE range 33-52 times; Dong'e Ejiao - the historical PE range is 20-45 times; Johnson & Johnson - historical PE range of 15-22 times;
Then, let's look at the daily chemical category:
Colgate - historical PE range 17-29 times; Procter & Gamble - historical PE range of 18-23 times;
Let's look at the pharmaceutical circulation:
Sinopharm is consistent - the historical PE range is 19-44 times; Sinopharm - historical PE range of 18-23 times; Chinese medicine - the historical PE range is 17-24 times;
Through the above comparison, among them, the valuation range of pharmaceuticals is generally the highest, except for Johnson & Johnson in mature markets of US stocks, which is generally around 30-55 times.
This is followed by the pharmaceutical circulation category, which is between 18-25 times
Combined with the historical ROIC value (17%-24%) of Yunnan Baiyao in five years, its own historical valuation range is about 20 times to 65 times
In this case, the reasonable range of optional PE is between 20 times and 35 times, and the corresponding equity market value is 67.1 billion yuan to 117.8 billion yuan.
Yunnan Baiyao has been on the market for a long time, is in a stable operating state, and the cash flow from operating activities is relatively stable as a whole, which is applicable to the DCF valuation method. Let's do it step by step.
The first step is to select the performance growth rate
We analyze from several dimensions: historical growth rate, industry growth rate, institutional forecast growth rate, and endogenous growth rate.
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market