Since Lai Qingde came to power in May this year, the PLA has repeatedly held large-scale military exercises and cruises in the Taiwan Strait. With regard to the PLA's increasingly frequent patrol activities, two completely different voices have emerged on the island.
1. There are two mentalities on the island toward mainland exercises
In the interview, Tang United Kingdom Hua mentioned that since Lai Ching-te came to power, the PLA has deployed more and more military planes and ships around the Taiwan, and the number of PLA crossings of the so-called "middle line" has increased sharply from 36 in January to 193 in August, and the number of warships operating in the Taiwan Strait has also increased from 142 in January to 282 in August.
He called the PLA's patrol tactics "python strategy," which means that although the PLA moves slowly but clearly, the core purpose is to continuously increase the military presence around the Taiwan Strait, and the PLA is ready to blockade Taiwan whenever it wants. At the same time, he also said that new rules of engagement have been promulgated within the Taiwan military this year, and this is used to restrain the front-line troops of the Taiwan military from provoking or escalating the situation.
Just after the content of Tang Hua's interview was issued, there were also opposing voices on the island, and in a current affairs program, Taiwan military expert Su Ziyun said that the "python strategy" is not terrible.
Because Taiwan Island is equivalent to a "big castle" on the sea, the risk and difficulty of the PLA to carry out an amphibious landing are very high, and once the landing fails, it will face political disaster.
Su Ziyun believes that if the mainland adopts non-peaceful means against Taiwan, United States will also pay close attention to it and intervene.
According to estimates, the US military can deploy the rapid response force to Taiwan within 45 minutes at the earliest, and the Seventh Fleet will also arrive in the waters of the Taiwan Strait within 1-2 days.
Second, the Taiwan military understands the PLA's strategy
As far as the reality is concerned, what Tang Jun said is obviously in line with the facts, and the PLA's current strategy for the Taiwan Strait is to continuously increase pressure and reduce the scope of Taiwan military activities, and this has now achieved remarkable results.
Before 2022, Taiwan's military ships and aircraft were still able to operate in the Taiwan Strait, and even track and monitor PLA military aircraft and warships.
First, the so-called "middle line" was completely eliminated, and then the so-called "24-nautical-mile line" was approached, which was considered by the Taiwan authorities to be the "last line of defense," and the scope of Taiwan military activities was completely reduced to the island.
Judging from this year's "Joint Sword-2024A" exercise, from the announcement of the exercise to the beginning of the exercise, the PLA only took a few days to organize the required naval and air forces to encircle Taiwan, and the rocket force was also in place on time to carry out fire strikes on targets in the Taiwan Strait.
It can be seen from this exercise, which is close to actual combat, that the PLA actually has the capability to attack Taiwan by force and can carry out operations to encircle Taiwan at any time.
Three: It is unrealistic for United States to send troops to the Taiwan Strait
As for Taiwan military expert Su Ziyun, saying that Taiwan is a "fortress" and that amphibious landings are very difficult, this is obviously just a beautiful remark to win the public's attention.
The distance between the two sides of the strait is only more than 100 kilometers, and at this distance, the PLA only needs to deploy long-range fire in the Fujian area to cover most of the island of Taiwan.
If an amphibious landing must be carried out, then the Taiwan military must carry out a beachhead blockade, but only Taoyuan, Hsinchu and other places in Taiwan are suitable as landing grounds, and the beachheads in these areas will inevitably be "taken care of."
No matter what, the Taiwan military will not be able to prevent the PLA from landing ashore, and once it loses its beachhead, it is only a matter of time before it loses the entire Taiwan.
As for United States interference, the problem does exist objectively, but it is most likely limited to verbal interference.
Although United States often uses the Taiwan card to contain China, after all, United States still recognizes the one-China policy and has no excuse or basis to intervene in the Taiwan issue by force.
In addition, especially in a country like United States, once he suffers huge losses and pays a high price for his military intervention, he will retreat, which is why if we want to solve Taiwan problems, we must fully consider the possibility of United States and Japan deep involvement, and make more adequate preparations, do not think that they can achieve a quick solution, and the United States and Japan do not intervene in such self-anesthesia, if we say that we use such strategic thinking and preparation to deal with and solve Taiwan problems, it is very dangerous.
Generally speaking, the initiative in how to resolve the Taiwan issue has always been in the hands of the mainland, and today, when the strength of the PLA is growing day by day, the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue is no longer a difficult problem or problem. However, before the situation completely deteriorates, the mainland is still willing to take back Taiwan by peaceful means, and hopes that certain people on the island will give up unnecessary illusions and recognize reality at an early date.