On October 10, A-shares gradually stabilized, and the overall trend was still volatile and climbing. As of noon close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.95%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.61%, and the half-day trading volume continued to be above the trillion.
Volatility of A-shares decreases //
After a short-term rise and fall, on October 10, A-shares opened slightly higher, and the intraday surge fell back and then rose, and the volatility fell sharply, but the upward trend of shocks was still the same. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 2.95%, back above 3,350 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.61%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.45%, and the market stopped falling and stabilized, but the differentiation was obvious.
The half-day turnover of Wind All A reached 1.47 trillion, declining for two consecutive trading days, which means that the large volatility market is over, the market has cooled down, and the market will enter a stable and differentiated stage in the later stage.
Hong Kong stocks rebounded more strongly //
On October 10, Hong Kong stocks rebounded across the board, as of the close of A-shares at noon, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks rose nearly 4%, and the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index rose more than 4.5%, and the rebound of Hong Kong stocks was higher than that of A-shares.
After the FTSE China A50 futures fell back for two consecutive trading days, on October 10, as of the close of A-shares at noon, FTSE China A50 futures rose by more than 6%, and overseas funds continued to be optimistic about Chinese assets.
How to lay out in the fourth quarter? //
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, most brokerages are still relatively cautious, but they have high expectations for the incremental policies that may be implemented, especially the fiscal policy.
Based on the judgment that "the trend of profit upward and credit downward trend is slowing down", Northeast Securities believes that the fourth quarter may still be dominated by shocks. Although the LPR cut in September failed, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter has increased significantly. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be conducive to the pace of domestic interest rate cuts, and the policy may be intensively introduced, focusing on the refinement of the policy direction.
For the market prospects, Guohai Securities' judgment is relatively optimistic, believing that the policy may undergo inflection point changes. In the context of monetary easing, real estate efforts and confidence recovery in the fourth quarter, A-shares are likely to continue to repair, and there may be highlights in the follow-up fiscal policy. October will be an important window period for fiscal policy follow-up, and we can pay attention to the follow-up press conference of the State Council Information Office to release a series of measures, as well as the possibility of adjusting the fiscal budget and increasing the scale of special treasury bond issuance at the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress in October.
As far as the profitability of A-share companies is concerned, China Galaxy Securities believes that the increase in stable growth policies and the strong expectation of macroeconomic improvement in the fourth quarter are expected to drive the performance of A-share companies, especially in the financial, real estate and consumer sectors. In the long run, the extent of the A-share rebound depends on whether the economic fundamentals can improve and whether investors' risk appetite improves.
Review of historical articles
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