The situation on the Korean Peninsula suddenly became tense, and according to the Xinhua News Agency on October 9, citing the Korean Central News Agency, on the same day, the General Staff of the Korean People's Army issued a statement announcing that North Korea had "permanently cut off and blockade" the southern border with Korea. The main actions include cutting off the North Korean railways and highways connecting to the ROK, and fortifying and strengthening the defense facilities in the frontline area.
The General Staff of the Korean People's Army pointed out that this is because the "Korea region" conducts aggressive war exercises every moment and frequently, and its intensity has been completely escalated, and in addition, batches of United States nuclear strategic assets are present in the Korea region at any time, constantly declaring that it wants to "end the regime" against the DPRK. Therefore, the sharp situation of military struggle on the peninsula requires the KPA to take tougher measures to safeguard national security.
The situation on the Korean Peninsula
Why did the DPRK suddenly make an attack and announce the severance of road and rail traffic between the two Koreas, and what are the considerations behind it? Big Ivan's viewpoint, from the perspective of direct factors, is the result of the tough containment policy adopted by the Korean Peninsula since the beginning of this year, especially by the US-ROK coalition forces. Since the beginning of this year, the military exercises carried out by the United States and South Korea, plus a Japan, around the Korean Peninsula have basically not stopped, and a little search is everywhere:
United States Navy aircraft carrier "Roosevelt".
From June 27 to June 29, 2024, the United States, Japan, and South Korea held the first joint military exercise codenamed "Freedom Blade" in Korea, which was jointly agreed by the defense ministers of the three countries at the "incense meeting" in early June this year, and is expected to become an annual practice in the future.
In the first "Freedom Blade" joint military exercise in 2024, the United States Navy dispatched a formation headed by the aircraft carrier "Theodore·Roosevelt" to participate in the exercise.
On August 19, 2024, the U.S.-South Korea coalition launched the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) joint military exercise near the 38th parallel. The exercise simulated countermeasures against the alleged "missile provocations" and "cyber attacks" by North Korea, and even imagined the countermeasures that the U.S. and South Korean forces would carry out in the event of a nuclear attack by North Korea.
North Korea reacted unusually strongly to this year's "Ulji Freedom Shield," successively carrying out test launches of 240-millimeter long-range rocket artillery and loitering missiles, and declared that the intention of the US-ROK coalition to carry out this military exercise was to "launch a war of aggression."
"Ssangyong" military exercises
The US-ROK coalition forces were unceremonious, and the "Ulchi Freedom Shield" joint military exercise had not yet ended, and another military exercise codenamed "Ssangyong" was held on the backhand. The US and ROK armed forces dispatched more than 13,000 marines and four amphibious assault ships: The Korea Navy dispatched the only two amphibious assault ships of the "Dokdo" class "Dokdo" and "Maro Island," while the United States Navy dispatched the "United States" and "Boxer" amphibious assault ships, and four amphibious assault ships were dispatched in one exercise.Korea
On October 1, 2024, the Korea army also held a "Army Day" military parade, and at the parade, Yoon Seok-yue did three major tasks like missing strings in his brain:
First, it was the first time to show its own "Xuanwu-5" type strategy (tactical?). The missile weapon system, which is a typical tactical missile with Korea characteristics or peninsular characteristics, has a take-off weight larger than that of a medium-range ballistic missile, and a giant warhead weighing up to 8 tons, resulting in a range of less than 1,000 kilometers.
"Xuanwu-5" missile system
Of course, if you replace the warhead with 1 ton, it is said that the range is 5000 km, but you have such a large take-off weight, and the range is only 5000 km? It can only be said that Korea's ballistic missile shell materials and solid rocket engine charge technology are basically at the same level as India;
Second, when Yoon Suk-yeol made a speech, he said that he would "end the North Korean regime" with the "Hyunmoo-5" ballistic missile;
Third, when Yoon Suk-yeol saluted the Supreme Commander of the U.S. Forces Command in South Korea, he held his head high, and he bowed with his eyebrows lowered, just like a "Governor of the Colonial Maintenance Association".
Yoon Suk-yeol bowed in salute
After three jobs, North Korea exploded. On the third day, Kim Yo-jong, vice minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, came out to make a statement, in which he not only scolded the "Hyunmoo-5" ballistic missile as a "deformed ox cart," but also disclosed that "one rocket artillery is equivalent to 900 tons of explosive power for the tactical nuclear warhead carried by the DPRK's own long-range rocket artillery......
Therefore, the north and south sides of the Korean Peninsula are almost the same, and if you are tough, I will be super tough, and I will be 900 tons of your entire 8-ton explosive thing, and I will definitely overwhelm you in momentum.
The U.S. military phalanx at the finale of the Korea military parade
Of course, after that, the US and South Korean militaries are still conducting new military exercises, and a new round of military exercises between the two militaries will start again on 2 October. But these are the details, let's just say:
First, you Korea this country, from June this year to the present, the United States and South Korea have conducted four joint military exercises, four joint military exercises between the United States, Japan and South Korea, one military parade, and five large-scale military operations in four months, each time dispatching tens of thousands of people...... I don't know that you still think that Korea is a country that relies on military exercises to eat.
Second, since you Korea have already made so many abstract and ruthless work, especially since Yoon Seok-yue has already said "ending the North Korean regime" in his public speech on October 1, which directly touches the core interests of North Korea, then don't blame North Korea for once again "being super tough against tough."
So, this is the most direct factor for North Korea to suddenly announce that it wants to cut off the connection between the north and the south and blow up the roads and railways. In a word, that is, I can't stand you Korea making so many abstract things, let's just do it.
The fundamental factors behind it
Since the end of last year, the DPRK has restated the DPRK-ROK relations, and under the leadership of the DPRK's supreme leader Kim Jong-un, the DPRK has mainly undergone the following changes:
The first is to abandon the previous vague "three thousand miles of rivers and mountains" related expressions. In the previous state construction of the DPRK, the DPRK and Korea belonged to the same country, and the people of the two countries belonged to the Korean nation, but now the relationship between the DPRK and the ROK is defined as the "enemy relationship", and it is believed that the Korea has become a "enemy country" and "alien race" completely heterogeneous from the Korean nation under the direct influence of the United States.
Second, on the basis of formally defining inter-Korean relations as "enemy countries" and "alien races," the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is preparing for the first time to formally define the territorial scope of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Judging from the recent statements made by Comrade Kim Jong Un, the territorial claims that the DPRK is destined to embody at the level of the Constitution should be bounded by the military demarcation line, but the "northern limit" in the West Sea is not recognized as a historical issue.
Third, it will not renounce the use of force against Korea, but there are huge changes in the relevant expressions. In the event of the outbreak of war, the Korean People's Army will take on the official statement of "pacifying the south" and "bringing enemy territory under the control of the DPRK." The DPRK has been considering amending the current Constitution since last year, and it is expected that the official expression will be reflected in the newly revised Constitution.
Pyongyang's landmark "Reunification Gate"
North Korea's redefinition of inter-national relations between the North and the South, the performance of ethnic relations, to a large extent, is reflected in a series of actions that began last year, and the actions of the North Korean side that have been confirmed so far include but are not limited to:
The first is to blow up the "Reunification Gate" located on Pyongyang's Reunification Boulevard. Comrade Kim Jong Un called it "that indiscreet thing", and just a few days later, the symbol of Korean national unity, which was erected shortly after the conclusion of the inter-Korean summit in 2000, disappeared without a trace from satellite photos.
The second is to carry out a large-scale reorganization and merger of various departments within the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) for Yugoslavia. In particular, the United Front Department of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), which oversees the united front work against the ROK, as well as more than a dozen departments, committees, non-governmental organizations, and official enterprises that are peripheral organs of the ministry, have been swept away. The United Front Department has reportedly been downgraded to the 10th Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea;
Third, since June this year, the DPRK has actually shown signs of cutting off road and rail traffic between the DPRK and the ROK. In April this year, North Korea began to dismantle dozens of street lights on the Gyeongui Railway and the Donghae Highway, and in June, North Korea began to dismantle the tracks and sleepers on the Gyeongui Railway from Kaesong to the military demarcation line, while also observing the KPA "frontline corps" building minefields on the 38th parallel.
Build a minefield on the 38th parallel
Therefore, in essence, the sudden announcement by the DPRK that it will completely cut off the road and rail traffic between the north and the south is not a sudden occurrence, but a sign that there have been relevant signs for a long time, and it is just the latest manifestation of the redefinition of "North-South relations" in North Korea and the formal definition of North-South relations on the Korean Peninsula as "enemy countries" and "alien" relations.
Therefore, from this point of view, the DPRK-ROK relations have come to this point, and the DPRK has made such a big move on the military demarcation line, but the big Ivan feels that the possibility of triggering a military conflict has decreased.
Because in essence, this is a manifestation of North Korea's internal strategic adjustment toward South Korea, and the internal logic of this strategic adjustment toward South Korea is currently divided among everyone, but Big Ivan generally believes that this is North Korea's strategic contraction, and as long as Korea does not die, then North Korea will not take the initiative to launch a military attack on South Korea.
On the surface, cutting off the public and rail traffic on both sides is not a precursor to attack, but a precursor to defense, so in the current situation where Korea is just dancing with knives and guns, North Korea is only releasing cruel words.
At present, the biggest question for us is how to proceed with the revision of the DPRK's constitution this year, and how to express the final relationship with South Korea, which is the most important thing.