Huitong Financial APP News - On Friday (October 11) in the morning of the Asian market, international oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and U.S. crude oil is currently trading at $75.62 per barrel. Oil prices rose nearly 4% on Thursday, helped by a surge in fuel use ahead of Hurricane Milton United States supply risks in the Middle East and signs of a possible increase in energy demand in United States and China.
Brent crude futures rose $2.82, or 3.7 percent, to settle at $79.40 a barrel on Thursday; United States crude futures rose $2.61, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $75.85 a barrel on Thursday.
Hurricane Milton swept through Florida in the United States, where about a quarter of gas stations ran out of gasoline and left more than 3.4 million homes and businesses without power.
"Given the very wide range of outages, the supply impact of some product terminal closures, tank truck shipment delays, and pipeline disruptions is likely to persist into next week," analysts at energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "
"This significant uncertainty about Florida's oil infrastructure has broadly supported gasoline prices," the company said. United States gasoline futures closed up about 4.1% on Thursday, leading gains across a variety of energy sources.
Investors remain vigilant, with Israel's defense minister, Israel Defense Minister Gallant, promising that any strike against Iran will be "deadly, precise and unexpected."
Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil bases, fearing that their own oil facilities could be attacked by Tehran's allies if the conflict escalates.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with the Ministry of Justice and other departments, announced on Thursday a law on the promotion of the private economy (draft for solicitation of comments) to support private economic organizations to participate in major national strategies and major projects, and optimize the investment and financing environment for the private economy.
Confidence in the Fed to cut interest rates in November has increased, following data showing that United States initial jobless claims rose last week and prices rose year-on-year at the smallest pace since February 2021.
Investors need to continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation related news in this trading day, pay attention to the changes in United States crude oil drilling data, United States September PPI data and United States October University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value, pay attention to China's M2, social financing scale and other monetary data, continue to pay attention to Fed officials' speeches.
Hurricane Milton hit Florida, United States, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power
Hurricane Milton entered the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday after it raged in Florida, triggering a tornado that killed at least 10 people and left millions of homes and businesses without power, but did not trigger the feared catastrophic storm surge.
Governor Ron DeSantis said Florida avoided the "worst-case scenario," but cautioned that the damage was still huge and the flooding remained a concern.
United States Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said at a White House briefing that 10 deaths have been reported so far, adding that the deaths appear to have been caused by tornadoes. At least 27 tornadoes hit Florida, he said.
On Thursday, broken concrete power poles and trucks overturned in ditches demonstrated the power of tornadoes.
More than 3.2 million homes and businesses in Florida were without power Thursday afternoon, according to PowerOutage.us. After Hurricane Helene hit the area two weeks ago, at least some homes were without power for a few days.
After up to 18 inches (457 mm) of rainfall, there is still a danger of flooding the river. Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said Thursday morning that authorities are waiting for the river to peak, but so far the water level is at or below what it was after Hurricane Helenie two weeks ago.
According to FEMA Director Deanne Criswell in Tallahassee on Thursday, most of the reports of severe damage reported so far have come from tornadoes. Evacuation orders saved lives. More than 90,000 residents went to the shelter, she said.
The storm was a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall on the west coast of Florida Wednesday night, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (205 km/h). Although still a dangerous storm, Milton has weakened on his way across the Gulf of Mexico to Florida.
According to the United States Hurricane Saffir-Simpson wind scale, there are five hurricanes from low to high, and hurricanes of level 3 and above are classified as "strong hurricanes".
Sources: Senior Allah officials survived Israel airstrikes on Beirut
Wafiq Safa, the head of the Allah Party's liaison and coordination department responsible for working with Lebanon security agencies, escaped an assassination attempt by Israel on Thursday Israel an attack that killed 22 people, three security sources said.
In addition, the United Nations says its peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon is increasingly at risk.
Israel and Iran are saber-rattling, and the United States and Israel communicate and negotiate retaliation "scale"
Three United States and Israel officials said President Biden and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came closer to agreeing on the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran in a call on Wednesday, according to US media AXIOS.
The Biden administration acknowledges that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran, but fears that attacks on certain targets could sharply escalate regional wars.
A senior Israel official said that Israel's current plan is still more radical than the White House hopes.
However, a United States official said after Biden's phone call with Netanyahu that we are moving in the right direction.
Another United States official said the United States government was less nervous about Israel's plans after the call. United States and Israel officials said that consultations between United States and Israel on the work of retaliation against Iran will continue in the coming days.
Gulf states urged United States to stop Israel from bombing Iran's oil bases
Three Gulf sources said Gulf countries are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil bases. They fear that if the conflict escalates, their own oil facilities could be attacked by Tehran proxies.
Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have also refused to allow Israel to fly over their airspace to attack Iran, the three sources close to government circles said they had conveyed that position to Washington as part of efforts to avoid being rippled by the fighting.
Israel promised Iran would pay for last week's missile strikes, while Tehran said any retaliation would face a response. That has raised fears of a larger war in the region, in which United States could also be involved.
These actions come on the heels of Gulf states, amid growing fears that Israel might target Iran's oil production facilities, with non-Arab Shia Iran taking diplomatic action to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use their influence over Washington.
During this week's meeting, Iran warned Saudi Arabia that Iran would not be able to guarantee the safety of Saudi oil facilities if Israel received any assistance in carrying out the attack, a senior Iran official and an Iran diplomat said.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal family, said: "The Iranians have stated that 'if the Gulf states open their airspace to Israel, it will be an act of war. But [Saudi Arabia] will not allow anyone to use their airspace." "
Tehran has sent a clear message to Riyadh that Iran's allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen could respond if the region supports Israel against Iran, the diplomat said.
A Washington person familiar with the discussions confirmed that Gulf officials had been in contact with their United States counterparts to express concern about the scope of possible retaliatory actions by Israel.
Asked whether the Gulf governments asked Washington to ensure Israel's response was measured, the White House declined to comment. United States President Joe Biden and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone call on Wednesday about Israel's retaliation, and both sides viewed the call as positive.
Jonathan Panikoff, United States's former intelligence officer in charge of the Middle East and now at the Atlantic Council in Washington, said: "The anxiety of the Gulf states is likely to be a key topic in negotiations with Israel in an attempt to persuade Israel to take a cautious response." ”
In fact, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for Iran's lost supply if Israel's retaliatory actions cripple some of Iran's facilities.
But much of this spare capacity is located in the Gulf, so the world could face oil supply problems if oil facilities in countries such as Saudi Arabia or the U.A.E. were also targeted.
Saudi Arabia has been wary of Iran's attacks on its oil facilities since 2019, when an attack on Saudi Arabia's key oil refinery in Abqek briefly disrupted more than 5% of the world's oil supply. Iran has denied involvement.
Relations between Riyadh and Tehran have eased somewhat in recent years, but trust remains an issue. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E. are all locations for United States military installations or troops.
The three Gulf sources stressed that Israel could strike through Jordan or Iraq, but that using Saudi, U.A.E. or Qatar airspace is impossible and strategically unnecessary.
Israel will adjust its response, according to two senior Israel officials, and as of Wednesday, Israel has not decided whether to strike Iran's oil fields.
Protecting all oil facilities remains a challenge, despite advanced missiles and Patriot defense systems, sources in the Gulf region say the main approach remains diplomatic: to send a signal to Iran that the Gulf states do not pose a threat.
(U.S. crude oil continuous daily chart, source: Yihuitong)