Xiang'an Meteorology
Monthly
Xiang'an Meteorological Monthly
Issue 122 October 2024
October 1, 2024 4 editions
Consultant: Wu Weijie
Editor-in-Chief: Pan Jinzhen
Deputy Editor-in-Chief: Cai Ruiyao
Typesetting: Zhou Zhenhua
Hosted by Xiamen Xiang'an District Meteorological Bureau
Weather information and outlook
Weather information for September 2024
1. Weather overview in September 2024
According to statistics, from September 1 to September 30, 2024, the highest temperature during this period occurred on the 2nd, which was 36.8°C in Xinxu Town and Neicuo Town. The highest monthly cumulative rainfall was 348.8 mm in Min'an Street.
2. Daily maximum temperature and monthly precipitation in September 2024
Weather outlook for October 2024
1. Climate overview in October of the year
Since October, the influence of cold air in the north has intensified, the temperature has dropped significantly, the precipitation has decreased sharply, and there are generally few typhoons. The average monthly rainfall was 49.0 mm, 72.7 mm lower than the average precipitation in September, and the average monthly temperature was 23.5°C, 3.2°C lower than the average temperature in September.
Major meteorological disasters include: meteorological drought, late typhoons and coastal gales.
2. Prediction of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation
The cold SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue to develop over the next three months, reaching La Niña in October. The height field in the middle and high latitudes of East Asia is controlled by a wide range of positive anomaly, and the positive anomaly is relatively low in the south. The western Pacific subtropical high is strong and northerly; There is a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the South China Sea.
3. Forecast of climate trends in October 2024
1. General trend: The average temperature is expected to be low and the precipitation will be low in October.
2. Temperature: The average temperature in October is expected to be 22.5~23.5 °C, 0.1~1 °C lower than normal. The main cold air processes occurred on the 1st~3rd, 7th~10th, 17th~22nd, and 25th~30th.
3. Precipitation: It is expected that the precipitation in October will be 40~50 mm, and the northern mountainous areas will be 60~80 mm, which is 1~2 percent less than the normal year. The more obvious precipitation periods generally occurred on the 1st~3rd and 17th~20th.
4. Typhoon: It is expected that there may be 1~2 typhoons in October that will affect our area, and the impact periods will be in the early and middle of the second half respectively.
4. Countermeasures and suggestions for special climate impacts
1. Our district has entered the stage of frequent winds, please strengthen the fire safety inspection of mountains and forests, and pay attention to the impact of strong winds on marine ships and coastal tourism.
2. If the precipitation is low in the month, scientifically plan the water management of reservoirs in our region to avoid or reduce the impact of low precipitation on agricultural production.
5. Precipitation forecast in the upper reaches of the Jiulong River
It is estimated that the precipitation in the upper reaches of the Jiulong River (with Longyan, Zhangping, and Hua'an as representative stations) in October 2024 will be about 1~2 percent less, and the magnitude is detailed in Table 1.
Editor in charge: Zheng Jiangwei
Disaster prevention and mitigation
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Autumn typhoon
Editor in charge: Zheng Cailong
Agrometeorology
Carrot Topic
In the future, the weather will be generally stable and suitable for sowing
1. Crop development process
At present, it is the carrot preparation ~ sowing ~ germination period in our area, and the flowering ~ expansion ~ harvest period of dragon fruit.
2. Forecast of climate trends in October 2024
1. General trend: The average temperature is expected to be low and the precipitation will be low in October.
2. Temperature: The average temperature in October is expected to be 22.5~23.5 °C, 0.1~1 °C lower than normal. The main cold air processes occurred on the 1st~3rd, 7th~10th, 17th~22nd, and 25th~30th.
3. Precipitation: It is expected that the precipitation in October will be 40~50 mm, and the northern mountainous areas will be 60~80 mm, which is 1~2 percent less than the normal year. The more obvious precipitation periods generally occurred on the 1st~3rd and 17th~20th.
4. Typhoon: It is expected that there may be 1~2 typhoons in October that will affect our area, and the impact periods will be in the early and middle of the second half respectively.
3. Meteorological influence conditions for carrot sowing
Carrot sowing favorable meteorological conditions: the average daily temperature > 20 °C, the air humidity should be kept at about 90% within 1 week after sowing, and the air humidity can be maintained at 70%~80% after 1 week.
Unfavourable meteorological conditions: average daily temperature ≤ 15°C, with rain, heavy rain or severe drought.
Fourth, agricultural production suggestions
1. Field management concerns: (1) Carrot preparation before sowing. Each mu is applied with 60~75 kg of shell ash or lime, and the deep turning and fine harrow are used to make the fertilizer and soil mixed evenly, furrowed, and ready to be sown. (2) Carrot sowing - disease and insect meteorology during the seedling period. The main insect pests are underground pests and aphids. Aphids: can be sprayed with a net 1000 times solution or 3000 times imidacloprid solution. Crickets and other underground pests can be booby-trapped with soybean cake mixture: 20-30 kg of soybean cake mixed with medicine per mu is used to sprinkle and ravine. Mixing method: 50 kg of soybean cake is crushed, sprayed with 2-3 bottles of phosphine mixed with 10 kg of water, and stirred well.
2. The future weather is relatively stable, suitable for carrot sowing, according to the latest extension period forecast, the weather in the next month will have fewer rainy days, the average temperature is 22.5~23.5 °C, and there are no obvious adverse meteorological conditions for sowing. The forecast results show that the suitable sowing period of carrots this year is longer, so growers can strengthen comprehensive research and judgment, such as the difficulty of sales and prices in different harvest periods, and reasonably arrange the sowing time to improve economic expectations.
3. Pay attention to avoid sowing during obvious precipitation periods, strengthen the management of sprinkler irrigation, and adjust the meteorological conditions in the field. In the next month, the temperature difference between day and night is large, and the humidity is relatively low, pay attention to the timely adjustment of the temperature difference between day and night by controlling the spray of water after sowing and keep it moist to promote the emergence of seedlings, so as to ensure the germination rate in carrots, and pay attention to proper water control and squatting seedlings after 60 days after seedlings. If it is found that it has not germinated, it should be replanted in time.
Editor in charge: Pan Jinzhen, Ye Mingxin (Agriculture and Rural Bureau)
Meteorological science
Can a level 8 wind blow away a skinny man?
Right now, there's probably no weather that's so love-hate as the wind. When there is no wind, the haze is in charge, and I look forward to the wind; When the wind blows the blue sky, it also comes with the skills of biting cold and changing three hairstyles in a minute, and the skinny people have to worry about what to do if they are blown away. The weight anti-wind table that was widely circulated before, is it reliable? What does the weather forecast often say corresponds to the wind level?
Who said that a thin man can't withstand a level 8 gale?
A weight and wind resistance scale chart that was once very popular on the Internet showed that a thin person under 100 pounds could not bear the wind of level 8. Even a fat man of 160 pounds can only resist a level 10 wind.
This seems to underestimate a person's ability to resist the wind. There is a "crooked nut" J.F. RMc Ilveen who published a paper in the journal Weather to estimate the force of wind on the surface of the human body. Calculations show that when the wind speed reaches 20 mph (force 5), the body needs to lean forward to balance; When reaching 120 mph (force 16 winds), no matter how much one adjusts one's body position, it is impossible to stand. In other words, when encountering a super typhoon, people will definitely not be able to stand.
However, this "crooked nut" data somewhat overestimates people's ability to resist wind. After all, it is a theoretical model, and the actual wind is constantly changing in intensity and direction, and everyone's ability to coordinate and respond cannot keep up with the instantaneous changes in the wind. Category 10-11 winds are the threshold at which a person stands, and it is difficult to reach this value to maintain a standing posture. And when Typhoon "Seagull" hit, it was actually very dangerous for Guangdong wind-chasing reporters to tie themselves to trees to live broadcast in order to prevent themselves from being blown away. In short, NO ZUO NO DIE, don't chase the wind if it's okay.
So in reality, how can we feel the size of the wind through sight, hearing, and touch without the help of professional instruments? Level 0 smoke column straight into the sky, level 1 light smoke deviates with the wind, level 2 light wind blows the face, level 3 leaves move the red flag exhibition, level 4 branches shake and fly pieces of paper, level 5 small trees with leaves shake, level 6 umbrella walking is difficult, level 7 is inconvenient to walk in the wind, level 8 wind blows branches breaking, level 9 roof flying tiles, level 10 pulls trees and falls down houses, level 11 is rare on land, and level 12 typhoons are at sea. About the wind below level 3, let's not talk about it, it's too gentle and has no sense of existence. Category 4 winds can make a sense of presence by rolling up pieces of paper or shaking branches, level 5 winds can shake leafy trees, and it is a bit difficult to hold an umbrella in a level 6 wind.
Usually when there is a gale of 6 or more, with gusts of 7-8, the blue warning of high winds will come into effect; When the average wind reaches level 8 and the gust is level 9, the yellow warning for high winds is in effect, and standing in the wind is like facing the normal subway head-on, with a danger index of three stars, and it is best to walk around when encountering nearby billboards. Gale winds of magnitude 10 and above are rarely seen on land. Once it appears, it is often related to typhoons. Super Typhoon Sangmei in 2006 and Super Typhoon Rammasun in 2014 both made landfall on the mainland with winds of 60 m/s (equivalent to 17). At that time, a reporter hugged a big tree and shouted hoarsely, "I'm about to break down", yes, it's that crazy. 60 m/s (level 17) corresponds to 216 km/h, which is the speed at which bullet trains and even high-speed trains run! Even if you have practiced acrobatics, it is impossible to maintain balance, and the danger index is 5 stars. There is another terrifying wind that has to be mentioned, and that is the tornado. Although tornadoes do not last as long as typhoons and do not have as wide a range of effects as typhoons, the strongest wind speeds of tornadoes exceed those of typhoons. The Bridge Creek-Moore tornado that occurred in the United States on May 3, 1999, had a maximum gust of 484 km/h, which was faster than a F1 car! Seriously, you can fly at this speed.
Editor in charge: Cai Ruiyao
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