Source | Tech Planet
Text | Ren Xueyun
"Store celebration + replacement subsidy + price war, now is a good time to buy a car", Wang Sen, who has more than ten years of experience in car sales, found that the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", which has not been seen in the car market for several years, is really coming.
"From September to the Chinese New Year, dealers will gradually withdraw preferential policies, and consumers' willingness to buy will also decrease, but this year's preferential policies are full of tricks."
A car dealer told Tech Planet that the price war has subverted the traditional sales system, and the discount strategies of various car companies have been throughout the year, and consumer willingness has shown a weak trend until September this year, resulting in a continuous decline in sales.
"However, affected by subsidies in September and October, car companies have also increased their preferential efforts, which has increased the willingness of consumers and contributed to the real peak sales season of the auto market." According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach 1.1 million units in September, up 47.3% year-on-year.
While the market prosperity is improving, various car companies have reported frequent successes. In September, BYD broke the 400,000 sales mark for the first time; Li Auto, Hongmeng Zhixing, GAC Aion, and Leapmotor broke through the threshold of 30,000 vehicles; A number of brands such as Xpeng Motors and ZEEKR have set new highs in terms of deliveries.
On the evening of October 7, Lei Jun, chairman and CEO of Xiaomi, also announced on Weibo: "During the National Day holiday, Xiaomi SU7 locked orders of more than 6,000 vehicles." Immediately after the second Weibo posted, Lei Jun also showed the sprint goal of Xiaomi Auto in October: "Produce 20,000 units and deliver 20,000 units." ”
Although car companies have "shopped" for gold nine and silver ten in exchange for a large increase in sales, the first-line sales and dealers have not felt the joy. A dealer said that the sharp increase in sales was accompanied by an increase in price wars, "Now it is a loss to sell one." ”
New energy is happy to mention the "Golden Nine", but BBA has encountered Waterloo
"The number of visitors during this year's National Day holiday is four times higher than on normal weekends," said a car sales manager in Tianjin.
According to the statistics of the sales manager, more than half of the users who came to buy cars during the National Day holiday were replaced with new cars, "mainly because the subsidy standards for car scrapping have been updated, and policies such as replacement subsidies have been increased, so this part of the replacement users have been driven to come to see the car." ”
According to public information, since the end of August, more than 15 provinces and cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Hubei, Hebei and Henan have issued a "trade-in" policy for automobiles. Taking Tianjin as an example, eligible consumers can get a maximum of 20,000 yuan in national subsidies for car purchases.
The increase in policy subsidies has led to the entry of car companies and dealers, and they have given more preferential strategies.
Taking the B-class car that used to be in the 200,000 yuan range as an example, Tech Planet Consulting learned from the sales of a number of 4S stores that the price of the 2025 Passat low-power version has dropped to more than 120,000 yuan, and the price of the naked car of the Honda Accord has also come to about 130,000 yuan.
"There are not a few joint venture cars that have dropped by more than 100,000 yuan, and the Honda Accord and Passat have a comprehensive discount of 60,000 or 70,000 yuan for cars in the 200,000 yuan range," said the sales manager of the listed car.
New energy vehicle brands are also increasing discounts, a Beijing area of Weilai car salesman said that during the National Day, Weilai EC6 cash discount can reach 25,000 yuan, "There is also an interest-free loan policy, and points are also given." An ideal sales in Beijing also said that the replacement of L6 models can get a cash discount of 8,000 yuan, and also send matching funds and points.
As a result, the comprehensive preferential space has been further expanded, so that some consumers who were previously on the sidelines have a willingness to place orders. A consumer in Anhui told Tech Planet that during the National Day, through the replacement subsidy, government subsidies, and group purchase subsidies of car companies, the guide price of the Xpeng Mona M03 purchased was 119,800 yuan, and the final landing price was 106,000 yuan.
Subsidies and preferential policies for car companies have increased sales enthusiasm, and the sales of domestic new energy vehicle brands such as BYD, "Wei Xiaoli", Wenjie, and Xiaomi Su7 have refreshed historical records.
But not all brands have been given a share of the soup during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period.
A BMW salesman in Beijing said that although the number of orders has increased, the sales volume cannot be compared with previous years. BMW Group sales in China fell 29.8 percent to 147691 units in the third quarter.
The decline in sales led BMW to return to the "price war" three months after announcing the price increase, taking the BMW i3 as an example, the sales revealed that its terminal discount exceeded 150,000 yuan, "but there are still not many consumers who come to consult." ”
Mercedes-Benz is in a similar situation to BMW, which delivered 170,700 new cars in the Chinese market in the third quarter, down 13% year-on-year, according to the latest Mercedes-Benz Group's sales report released in October.
Looking at the market segment data, the monthly retail sales of fuel vehicles were 882,000 units, a sharp decrease of 26.9% year-on-year, while the retail sales of the new energy market reached 1.025 million units, with a penetration rate of 53.7%. When the sales of new energy independent brands hit the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" and increased significantly, the traditional fuel brands led by BBA were forced to fall into a zero-sum game.
Prelude to the "Silver Ten" War: Encirclement and suppression of the fuel vehicle household market
In September, Xpeng's sales reached 21,352 units, an increase of 52.12% month-on-month, and the monthly sales exceeded 20,000 units for the first time this year. This data is inseparable from the hot sales of Xpeng Mona M03.
An employee of Xpeng Motors said that this year, new power car companies have turned to the mainstream family car market in terms of product strategy, and Xpeng is no exception. "M03 is positioned for young people's homes, and the Xpeng P7+ released on October 10 also focuses on home use and comfort."
Not only Xpeng, under the influence of the market recognition of Li Auto's family strategy, car companies such as Weilai, Zeekr, and Leapmotor have started the market strategy of brand sinking, launched sub-brands and models with lower prices, anchored a more segmented family market, and sought new growth points.
In the past few decades, the mainstream family car market has been occupied by fuel vehicle brands, and new energy vehicles have been the first to penetrate the main small car and large SUV markets, but with the increase in market segment penetration, new energy vehicles have been eyeing the mainstream family car market.
According to the data released by the Passenger Association in the first eight months of this year, the proportion of new energy vehicles has reached 81.2% in the price range of 50,000 yuan, and the proportion of new energy vehicles in the range of 10 to 150,000 yuan and 150,000 to 200,000 yuan has reached 40.3% and 36.8% respectively, and there is a certain scale of substitution space.
In order to impact the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", according to incomplete statistics from Tech Planet, nearly 50 new, medium and annual models were unveiled in the domestic market in September. Focusing on nearly 50 new cars, family, comfortable, cost-effective, and intelligent have become the core selling points of new energy vehicle companies.
Li Bin, the founder of NIO, mentioned that every functional configuration of Ledao L60 is completely in accordance with the configuration of mainstream family users' car use scenarios and frequency evaluations.
In September, ZEEKR also officially rushed to the mainstream family pure electric SUV market and launched the ZEEKR 7X, which exceeded 58,000 orders in 20 days from the start of pre-sale to the official launch.
"Car companies choose to work new vehicles, mainly in the hope of grabbing market share by launching products that are more attractive and in line with market demand," mentioned the above-mentioned Xpeng employee. In his view, replacing fuel vehicles of the same level with lower prices is the core goal of new energy independent brands at this stage.
According to data released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance Intelligent Travel Analyst Lv Jinghong, the weighted average selling price of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year is almost the same as that of traditional fuel vehicles, and two-thirds of the new energy vehicles in the market are priced lower than those of the same type of fuel vehicles.
In the context of the accelerated shrinkage of the base of fuel vehicles, to seize the mainstream family car market, new energy vehicle companies choose to roll in fuel vehicles first.
During the National Day, new energy vehicles fired the first shot of the "Silver Ten". On October 8, the VAT invoice data released by the State Administration of Taxation showed that the sales of new cars during the National Day increased by 11.7% year-on-year, of which new energy vehicles increased by 45.8% year-on-year.
The volume is low, and the more you sell, the more you lose
Volume-oriented strategies used to be an effective means of market expansion, but with the saturation of the market, it is no longer sustainable to rely solely on sales.
A car dealer told Tech Planet that the Golden Nine and Silver Ten did bring a surge in sales, but this does not mean that all parties in the industry chain can make more profits, "on the contrary, the more they sell, the more they lose." ”
According to the financial report data of many car companies in the first half of the year, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Leap, and BAIC are still mired in losses, with losses of 118,800 yuan, 51,000 yuan, 25,000 yuan, and 91,000 yuan respectively.
Tesla, Great Wall, Geely, Ideal, BYD, and Cialis achieved a single car profit, from high to low, 22,600 yuan, 12,757 yuan, 11,085 yuan, 8,900 yuan, 8,500 yuan, and 8,100 yuan respectively.
However, profitable car companies are not able to sit back and relax, and the profit margins of many car companies are being compressed.
Taking Tesla as an example, in the first half of this year, Tesla launched several rounds of terminal preferential policies in response to the decline in deliveries in the Chinese market. As a result, its total revenue in the second quarter increased by only 2% year-on-year to $25.5 billion, and net profit decreased by 45% year-on-year to $1.478 billion.
When the market is not fully saturated, new energy vehicles participate in the price melee, which not only brings a reduction in profits, but also makes the participants in the automobile industry chain face more cruel survival pressure.
When the new energy vehicle companies like to mention the "Golden Nine", the official Weibo of the China Automobile Dealers Association said that the drastic changes in the automobile market brought about by factors such as the continuous "price war" have caused auto dealers to fall into a quagmire and face the outstanding problem of extremely tight capital liquidity.
As the downstream of the automotive industry chain, the existing liquidity of many dealers has been compressed to the limit. According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, as of August, the purchase and sales of domestic dealers have been as high as -22.8% (the purchase price is higher than the selling price), which means that the more dealers sell, the more they lose.
A car dealer in Tianjin told Tech Planet, "There are basically no profitable dealers in the fuel car industry, but the life of new energy vehicle dealers is also difficult." ”
In the upstream of the automotive industry chain, suppliers have also reduced costs to the extreme in order to get the projects of OEMs. An insider from an automotive software supplier told Tech Planet: "Two projects were yellow in the third quarter of this year because another company competing for the bid has lowered the offer to within our cost line." ”
Although the drawbacks of the price war are obvious, the car companies that are immersed in the high sales of the "Golden Nine" are choosing to continue to increase the weight for the "Silver Ten", and the "price hand-to-hand war" for the sake of sales will continue.
(Note: All names have been changed.) ）