In a market that suddenly heats up and enters a volatile market, investors have repeatedly closed when they see a good situation.
"It's hard to get back to the capital, so I quickly 'get off'" "The redemption of the return to the capital has fallen, and those (products) that are waiting for the return of the capital have fallen again" "There is no redemption, but an increase in positions"...... Yicai randomly interviewed several investors, many of whom couldn't wait to redeem the fund after recovering their capital or even making a small profit, and some investors were optimistic about the market outlook and chose to further increase their positions.
To a certain extent, this also reflects that the market sentiment is playing a long and bearish game. According to Yicai's multi-channel understanding, fund managers also have differences on positions, both optimistic to increase positions, conservative downgrades, and some fund managers said that they temporarily waited and waited and chose not to move. In addition, some institutions have chosen to "settle for safety" after the holiday, but some institutions have the idea of redemption, but have not yet put it into action.
"The profit and loss ratio of the long and short sides is comparable to this position, and it is easy to have a more fierce game." In the eyes of industry insiders, there is no need to be pessimistic about the current position. However, the index has experienced a sharp rise in the early stage and then continued to adjust, and the trading volume has shrunk rapidly, showing that the trend of shock consolidation is relatively obvious, and it may take a while in the short term. After sentiment and turnover rose more than expected, investors are advised to take an objective view of stimulus policies.
The long-short emotional game is fierce
Since late September, the A-share market has ushered in a wave of rebound, and the net value of many active equity fund products has rebounded rapidly. Wind data shows that since the market "bottomed" on September 18 to October 11, 4,412 active equity funds (including flexible allocation, partial stock hybrid, balanced hybrid, common equity; Counting only the initial fund, the same below) recorded an increase, accounting for more than 98%.
As of October 11, among the 4,478 active equity funds, 2,763 products have had positive cumulative returns since the beginning of this year, accounting for more than 60%. Among them, 219 products have returned more than 20% during the year, and the highest is Western Profit Strategy Preferred A, with a year-to-date return of 50.98%.
In the process of rapid recovery of the net value of the fund, some investors who were previously "trapped" chose to accept it when they saw it, and redeemed the products they held after returning to the capital. "I bought the fund for two years, and it has been 'green', and it is not easy to get back to the capital, so I must have run away first." Xiao Huang, an individual investor, told Yicai, "Be content and happy, regardless of whether it rises in the future or not." ”
Another Xiao Jiang, who has many years of experience in fund investment, told the first financial reporter that the fund in his hand that has returned to the principal or made a small profit has been sold in this round of market, but he still holds some products that have not yet returned to the principal. "There are probably tens of thousands of losses, and after redemption, I should buy some broad-based ETFs." He said.
Yicai randomly interviewed several investors and observed the fund discussion forum and found that in this round of rebound, investors who can't wait to "escape" after returning their capital or making a small profit are not alone. At the same time, the reporter learned from the fund company and the channel that investors are also aware of the situation of accelerated redemption, in addition, some institutions have chosen to "settle in the bag" after the holiday, but there are also institutions that have the idea of redemption, but have not yet put it into action.
At the same time, many fund products have been redeemed at an accelerated rate in the process of net value recovery, or even had no choice but to liquidate. For example, Bank of China High-quality Development Opportunity A (different shares are calculated together) announced after the holiday that as of September 30, the fund has been in the net asset value of the fund less than 50 million for 30 consecutive working days.
According to the data, as of the end of the second quarter, the consolidated scale of Bank of China's high-quality development opportunity A fund was 52.07 million yuan, a decrease of 2.15 million yuan compared with 54.22 million yuan at the end of last year. Between September 18 and the end of the month, the fund rebounded by more than 22.7%, and it can be seen that the risk of liquidation of the fund has not diminished even if the fund recovers significantly.
In addition, Debang New Return A, Caitong Asset Management New Energy Vehicle A, and Bosera Research Return A, which have issued similar liquidation warnings during this period, have rebounded between 10% and 22% since September 18 as of October 11.
At the same time, there are also those who are unlucky, who are liquidated and exited in the skyrocketing market. According to Yicai statistics, as of October 14, 23 funds have announced their maturity, half of which are active equity products. Among them, as of October 10, the net asset value of the fund of Zhongjin Ruihe A for 60 consecutive working days was less than 50 million yuan.
Judging from the data reported in the interim report, the total scale of Zhongjinrui and A exceeds 70 million yuan. In the 10 days since, the fund has been redeemed for more than $20 million. According to statistics, the fund has risen by 8.97% in the past 60 working days, but it has not avoided liquidation.
On the other hand, there are also initiating products such as Huaxia Cycle Drive A, Minsheng Jiayin New Energy Smart A, and Quam Guochao Preferred A, which are terminated because they have not reached 200 million yuan at the expiration of three years, and they also regret missing out on the market.
"There is no need to be pessimistic about the current position"
In fact, just as the market rose rapidly before the holiday, the post-holiday correction also caused many investors to fall into a swing: has the investment logic changed? Should I increase my position or settle my pocket? According to the first financial reporter, under the hot market, fund managers also have differences on positions.
Some fund managers are more optimistic about the sustainability of the market and choose to quickly increase their positions; There are also conservatives who take the initiative to reduce their positions, such as an equity fund manager in Shanghai revealed that after the holiday (October 8) has lowered the position to 70%. In addition, there are some fund managers who have adopted short-term swing operations, while others have chosen to stay put.
"In fact, the vast majority of public offerings have been running at a high position." A public offering person in South China told Yicai that from past experience, the second stage of the bull market will be converted from a general rise to a structural market, which may require fund managers to do a good job in position management at the same time, but also to combine the fundamentals and capital to optimize sectors and individual stocks.
"The allocation and positions are not much different from before, and there will be no obvious changes." Another investment researcher from a medium-sized fund company has a similar view, he told Yicai that in the short term, sentiment will turn around and valuations will rise; However, after the general rise, there is a high probability that it is looking for the direction of the rise, and in the next policy and data verification period, the market may enter a volatile pattern.
Standing at the current point in time, Yang Gang, chief economist of the Golden Eagle Fund, told Yicai that there is no need to be pessimistic about the current position. Since last week, investor sentiment has returned to rationality from relatively excited, and has formed a certain range of shocks in the process of long-short games. On the other hand, the positive policy attitude at last Saturday's fiscal press conference also gave the market more confidence.
"With continued positive intensive policy guidance and relatively positive risk sentiment at the market level, A-shares may be expected to come out of a more sustainable slow bull market." Yang Gang believes that at present, the market is based on the domestic policy shift and the first stage of the repair process of the valuation side is almost complete, and the future will gradually enter a new stage of expected incremental policies to drive economic fundamentals to stabilize and improve, and corporate earnings may improve and eventually bring about a two-wheel drive of earnings and valuation.
In the view of Li Yin, professional director of the investment management department of China Merchants Fund, the recent sharp rise and fall of the market mainly reflects the large difference in the overall expectations of the two parties on the future. "After a short period of sharp ups and downs, the market will gradually find a relatively balanced position and gradually stabilize, entering a relatively volatile stage. In the future, we need to wait and see some new variables, including not only the variables of economic fundamentals, but also the continued rollout and gradual implementation of the policy package in the future. He said.
Li Yin believes that only from the perspective of economic fundamentals, it has entered the end of this round of downward cycle, and there is an endogenous driving force for the macro economy to gradually stabilize and rise. In addition, with the gradual introduction and implementation of a package of macroeconomic policies including monetary policy, fiscal policy, and industrial policy in all aspects, combined with the internal cyclical upward momentum of the macroeconomy itself, driven by the momentum of the two aspects, the macro economy may usher in a round of recovery cycle, so that the market may enter a new upward stage.
Ai Dingfei, manager of the quantitative stock selection mixed fund of the China Commercial Science and Technology Innovation Board, told Yicai that combined with a series of previous policy trends, it may be considered that the policy bottom of the market has been formed. Therefore, he is more inclined to believe that in the future, there will be a gradual implementation of policies, the gradual emergence of effects and the gradual realization of market expectations, so there may be a healthy slow cattle market.
(This article is from Yicai)