As the Philippines enlists more and more foreign countries to intervene in the South China Sea, is it more "safe" or more "dangerous"? This is something that the Marcos authorities have to consider.
Presidents of the Republic of Korea and the Philippines met
Although the Philippines and Korea have upgraded their relations and reached a consensus on the South China Sea issue, after hitting a wall at the ASEAN summit by clamoring for "tough on China", Marcos had to recognize the reality - that is, the Philippines' provocative approach to China on the South China Sea issue has not received widespread support in ASEAN, and the "alliance relationship" that the Philippines relies on is not necessarily strong.
Taking South Korea-Philippines relations as an example, Najib, a researcher on international affairs at Japan, bluntly said that the Philippines has enlisted Korea to manipulate the South China Sea issue, and China may make some kind of "hybrid tactics" to retaliate.
He also believes that there are two possible outcomes for the current situation: either China succeeds in defending its sovereign interests, or the Philippines and its allies will establish a "permanent grid alliance with China" in the region, or the Philippines will continue to face this cycle.
The statement of the Japan scholar is not only a warning to the Philippines, but also a reminder to China that the solution of the South China Sea issue cannot be delayed, and the Philippines cannot be allowed to set this precedent, let alone allow any foreign forces to intervene in the South China Sea issue.
The "US-Philippines Alliance" has been further deepened
For the United States and the West, the Philippines is nothing more than a pawn and a springboard for their intervention in the South China Sea issue, and the ultimate goal of provoking the South China Sea issue is to undermine the peace and stability of the regional situation and thus slow down China's development pace.
Therefore, while deepening relations with traditional allies such as the United States and Japan, United States is trying its best to win over China's neighboring countries such as the Philippines and Viet Nam in an attempt to establish a "grid alliance against China" and "contain" China.
As for the "layout" of the US side, China is also planning to "break the deadlock", and on the South China Sea issue, although the Philippines has frequently provoked trouble with the support of the United States, the Chinese coast guard has also upgraded its law enforcement efforts and has not allowed the Philippines to get half a penny.
In addition, the overall situation of ASEAN-China cooperation has not been affected by the differences between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, and the economic and trade cooperation between Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and other countries and China is developing day by day.
ASEAN countries
This shows that the Philippines has taken the lead in stirring up trouble and wants to encourage ASEAN to take tough measures to deal with China, but it has not succeeded. Moreover, the more provocative the Philippines is, the more decisive the other ASEAN countries will be to draw a line with it, and in the end, it will only be the Philippines itself that will be isolated.
For example, the Philippine media "Manila Times" recently published a report reflecting on "Why is the Philippines' action against China not supported by ASEAN?" ”
In particular, the article mentions a quote from former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, "Are you sure you want to get involved in a battle that will be a battlefield yourself?" ”
On this issue, the Philippines should ask itself a good question, is it willing to act as a thug for the United States, allow the US military to deploy medium-range missiles in the Philippines, and the missile launch button is completely in the hands of the United States, will it really make the Philippines more "safe"?
U.S. medium-range missile system
The Marcos administration is not unaware of this, but for some political reasons, it can only do what United States dictates.
Now, the Philippines and Korea have reached a consensus to strengthen defense cooperation, which can be seen as a further bundle of the "US-Philippines alliance". Next, the Korea military will also participate in the lineup of joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines, adding another layer of uncertainty to the regional security situation.
China will continue to strengthen patrol and law enforcement in waters under the jurisdiction of the mainland, effectively defend national sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and leave no opportunity for the Philippines to take advantage of it.