"No range anxiety is one of the biggest advantages of the extended range model, in our store, there are more users who buy the Leap C16 extended range version of the model, which is a little more than the pure electric version." Recently, Sun Fei (pseudonym), the sales manager of a Leapmotor store in Hefei, introduced this to a reporter from China Business News.
As Sun Fei said, with the advantage of no range anxiety, extended-range models have attracted more and more attention from consumers. The reporter noted that in addition to the new forces of car manufacturing, recently, many multinational car companies such as Hyundai and Ford have also revealed that they are developing extended range models, such as Hyundai Motor said at the "2024 CEO Investor Day" (CEO Investor Day) event that it plans to launch a new EREV (extended range) model.
"In the NEV market, we expect that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and extended range electric vehicles together are expected to account for about 60% of China's total NEV demand by 2030, almost doubling from 34% in 2023." J.P. Morgan Securities argues.
Despite this, there are also many people in the industry who are cautious about the market prospects of extended-range models. Zhang Hong, a member of the expert committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told reporters that the prospect of extended-range vehicles depends on market demand, and for the joint venture car companies and multinational giants behind the extended-range track, "the main battlefield in the future may lie in the field of solid-state batteries and hydrogen energy."
Sales of extended-range models increased
According to public information, the extended range model belongs to the plug-in hybrid type, which is an electric vehicle equipped with a range extender, which is composed of engine + generator + controller, when the on-board rechargeable energy storage system can not meet the range requirements, open the range extender to provide power for the power system, which can extend the range.
According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 48.9% in August, an increase of 13.3 percentage points from the penetration rate of 35.6% in August 2023. Among them, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 592,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and the wholesale sales of range extender vehicles were 115,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 109%, and the sales of range-extended models far exceeded those of pure electric vehicles.
Further combing can find that the sales of extended-range models have maintained a rapid growth rate in recent years. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from 2021 to 2023, the growth rate of extended-range models will be 206%, 116% and 173% respectively. In 2023, the sales volume of extended-range vehicles will reach 627,000 units, with a market share of 2.9%.
At present, the competition in the new energy vehicle market is becoming increasingly fierce, and the sales momentum of extended-range models with strong sales growth momentum is attracting more and more car companies to enter the game.
In June this year, some media reported that the first extended-range model of SAIC's Zhiji Automobile will be an SUV model, and the new car is planned to be released in the first quarter of next year, and it will be benchmarked against the ideal L7. It is reported that the range extension project of Zhiji Automobile has been approved in the second half of 2023.
The reporter noticed that before being reported to be developing a range-extended SUV, Zhiji Automobile had repeatedly revealed "rumors" to the outside world. On October 12, 2023, in an exclusive media interview after the launch of the Zhiji LS6, the senior management of Zhiji Automobile said: "In the next 3-5 years, there will be a very obvious market opportunity window for range extenders, including a small number of plug-in hybrids, especially medium and large-sized MPVs or SUVs, and we are also planning a route in the field of hybrid technology." ”
In December 2023, Liu Tao, co-CEO of Zhiji Auto, further said: "We believe that in the next 3-5 years or even 5-8 years, range extender products have market potential. It revealed that Zhiji Auto plans to launch its own range extender product plan around 2025, and the project has been approved.
Coincidentally, in addition to Zhiji Automobile, Zeekr Automobile may also enter the field of range extension.
In July this year, in the media communication meeting after the launch of the new ZEEKR 009, An Conghui, president of Geely Holding Group and CEO of ZEEKR Intelligent Technology, said bluntly in the question of whether to consider the extended range route in the future: "It is too easy for ZEEKR to engage in extended-range hybridization. At the same time, it said that the development of the above models will not be ruled out in the future. But for now, we must focus on pure electric vehicles first. We must do a good job in the market segment of luxury and pure electric vehicles. ”
The reporter combed and found that at present, brands such as Zeekr, AVATAR, and Zhiji are planning to launch extended-range models.
"Extended-range and plug-in hybrid models are indeed selling better now." Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai, said in a recent interview that Weilai and Ledao brands still insist on pure electricity. "When Tesla starts to do range extensions, we'll think about it. So both NIO and Ledao will only do pure electric, that's for sure. ”
"In the future, with the continuous influx of new players, the range extension market will accelerate its penetration into the mainstream market." Geist, a research institution, believes that at present, the range extension camp is expanding. "From the brand point of view, Wenjie and Ideal will give full play to the leading advantages of extended range products to maintain continuous sales growth; Brands such as Deep Blue and Leap are expected to see a significant increase in sales with the help of extended-range models. ”
Multinational companies plan to launch extended-range models
"One of the biggest topics of our board of directors this time is to agree that all hybrid models will be handed over to SAIC Volkswagen, and use SAIC Volkswagen as a platform to work with Volkswagen of Germany and SAIC Motor to jointly develop hybrid models that meet the needs of the Chinese market, including PHEV and range extender products." During the 2024 (18th) Beijing International Automobile Exhibition, SAIC Volkswagen executives further said, "We will have range extender products and long-range PHEVs to the market, and they are electric vehicle architectures. ”
On June 27 this year, Volkswagen Group, SAIC Group, Volkswagen (China) Investment Co., Ltd., Volkswagen (China) Technology Co., Ltd., and SAIC Volkswagen signed a number of technical cooperation agreements on SAIC Volkswagen's new product projects in Shanghai.
The reporter noted that SAIC Volkswagen signed a series of new energy technology cooperation agreements, including the development of three plug-in hybrid models and two pure electric models in China, and China and Germany jointly "technology empowerment" for the joint venture, and it is expected that from 2026 onwards, a number of plug-in hybrid models and pure electric models will be jointly developed to the market.
In addition to joint ventures, a number of multinational car giants have recently revealed plans to launch extended-range models.
On August 28, Hyundai Motor held the "2024 CEO Investor Day" event in Seoul, Korea, to unveil a new medium- and long-term strategy "Hyundai Way", specifically, Hyundai Motor will lead the automotive industry with its competitiveness in electric and hybrid vehicles, and at the same time, Hyundai Motor will also invest an average of more than 12 trillion won (about 63.72 billion yuan) per year in the next 10 years.
However, compared with grand plans and huge investments, Hyundai's entry into the field of range extension has attracted more attention from the outside world.
Hyundai Motor said it is developing a new extended-range electric vehicle model that combines the advantages of a gasoline and electric vehicle. For Hyundai, range extender models are a key bridge to electrification, providing consumers with the same responsive driving experience as EVs, providing consumers with a natural transition to EVs, while also making prices more competitive than EVs by optimizing battery capacity.
Also in August, according to a number of media reports, Ford canceled the previous pure electric three-row SUV plan and changed to a hybrid car, Ford CEO Jim · Farley said that after Ford canceled the original three-row pure electric SUV, it is considering using range extender technology for this new car.
It is worth noting that what are the reasons why multinational car companies are currently favoring extended-range vehicles?
"Whether it is new energy vehicles or fuel vehicles, the world's largest consumer market is currently in China." Zhang Hong believes that for multinational car companies, the importance of the Chinese market is irreplaceable. "Therefore, in order to maintain a competitive advantage in the Chinese market, paying attention to the changes in the Chinese market and meeting the needs of the Chinese market is a priority for multinational car companies in market path planning and product line layout."
Can it solve the "urgent need" of car companies
"From a single vehicle point of view, there is some value in extended-range electric vehicles." In 2020, the former CEO of Volkswagen China, Stephen Voun, said bluntly, but from the perspective of the whole country and the planet, it is a bad plan. "The ultimate goal of developing electric vehicles is to reduce carbon emissions, but if you are burning fossil fuels to generate electricity, you don't need to do that."
Feng Sihan's views on range extension technology have attracted widespread attention in the industry, and debates have continued to arise about whether range extension technology is a "backward technology", but in the case of continuous increase in sales of range extension models and the increase in the weight of many car companies, the debate on whether the range extension technology is backward seems to be gradually fading.
"The growth trend of the pure electric vehicle market is slowing down, and there is a tendency to saturate, and car companies need to find new sales breakthroughs." Zhang Hong bluntly told reporters that the extended-range model will be favored by car companies because of its relatively simple structure and low cost compared with plug-in hybrid models.
"At present, the price of self-owned brand extended-range models is generally accepted by the market, and the sales volume is good, and some car companies have turned losses into profits, which is also the main reason for the popularity of extended-range vehicles." Zhang Hong said. According to public information, since Li Auto, many car companies such as Wenjie and Leap have bet on range extension, and sales have made breakthroughs.
"We believe that the pressure on the growth rate of pure electric vehicle sales in 2024 is a high probability event, and the main increase in new energy passenger vehicles will come from plug-in hybrid vehicles (including extended range) vehicles. With 200,000 yuan as the boundary, the main theme of economic new energy passenger vehicles throughout the year is to accelerate the replacement of oil vehicles by cost-effective means. Ping An Securities Research Report once believed that "the profitability of relevant car companies is inevitably under pressure." ”
At present, many car companies, including joint venture car companies, are under pressure in sales, so they choose to bet on extended range models, can they solve the "urgent need" of car companies?
In Zhang Hong's view, whether the extended-range vehicles launched by various car companies can increase sales ultimately depends on market demand and the competitiveness of their own products. "In urban areas and along highways, there may not be a need for extended-range vehicles due to the availability of charging facilities. For remote township areas, mountainous areas in the southwest and northwest or Gobi Desert areas, especially for the vast number of consumer groups who like to travel by car, extended-range vehicles may be a good choice. ”
