Summary: On October 11, 2024, Beijing time, Tesla held a press conference with the theme of "We, Robot" in California, United States. A total of three products were exhibited at the event, namely Cybercab (Roborobotaxi), Robovan (Robotaxi), and Optimus (humanoid robot). Among them, for the humanoid robot Optimus, Musk said that it has made great progress.
The history of Tesla's Optimus
Tesla announced its entry into the field of robotics by announcing its entry into the field of robotics by announcing its entry into the field of robotics by announcing Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot concept machine, at AI Day 2021. Then, Tesla released the first-generation Optimus prototype in October 2022 and the second-generation prototype Optimus Gen 2 in December 2023.
Compared to the first generation of Optimus, the second generation of Optimus has been significantly improved, with a weight reduction of 10kg, a 30% increase in walking speed, and a further improvement in body control. At the same time, the second-generation Optimus's hand joints have been further upgraded, equipped with tactile sensors, which make movement more natural, and can accurately grasp small objects such as eggs.
Regarding the Optimus on display at the "We, Robot" conference, Musk said that it has made great progress. Judging from the video of the press conference, Optimus showed multiple sets of actions such as chatting, pouring drinks, guessing boxing, comparing hearts, dancing, singing, etc., and Optimus has been further improved in terms of flexibility, lightweight, and intelligence. In addition, Optimus can also smoothly identify obstacles, help others to hold items, etc., with smooth and coherent movements, which shows that Optimus has also made great progress in autonomous navigation, object recognition, and human-computer interaction.
Although some of the movements shown by the Optimus are still remotely controlled by humans, the overall view is still a big improvement over the Optimus on display in December 2023. Musk said that in the future, humanoid robots can walk dogs, mow lawns, buy things, take care of children, etc., and can also become people's teachers and friends, and believes that humanoid robots will be one of the greatest works of all time.
Source: Tesla's official website
Musk has repeatedly said that "humanoid robots will be the main source of long-term value for Tesla in the future", and predicted that the ratio of humanoid robots to humans in the future will be 2:1, that is, people's demand for humanoid robots is expected to reach 10 billion to 20 billion units, far exceeding the number of electric vehicles.
Musk said that after mass production, the cost of Optimus will be controlled between $20,000 and $30,000, and the further goal is to reduce the cost to about $10,000 and control the price between $20,000 and $30,000. The reduction in cost will also help promote the mass production of humanoid robots.
The current state of humanoid robots
Positively affected by the continuous maturity of AI technology, robot software and hardware related technologies and the increasing market demand, many companies have deployed humanoid robots. At this stage, the main players in the field of global humanoid robots can be divided into three categories, namely, robot companies, automobile companies, and Internet technology companies.
(1) Robot enterprises: focusing on the R&D and production of core robot technologies, it has accumulated various robot-related technologies such as mechanical design, motion control, and sensors, and has begun to develop the humanoid robot track in the past five years;
(2) Automobile enterprises: From the technical point of view, automobile companies have a number of technologies that can be reused to humanoid robots, such as visual perception and sensor fusion, which can be applied to the perception and interaction of humanoid robots on the environment; Mature manufacturing experience and supply chain management capabilities are conducive to large-scale production of humanoid robots and reduce unit costs. From the business point of view, at this stage, automobile companies are in a fierce price war and need to explore new development directions, while humanoid robots can have strong synergies with automobile companies in terms of technology, technology, and business model;
(3) Internet technology enterprises: with strong financial strength, and visual perception, algorithms, virtual simulation and other software have obvious advantages, the layout of humanoid robots can have a synergistic effect with the original business. At the same time, such companies have deep insights into consumer behavior and needs, and are expected to design humanoid robots that are more in line with user needs. In addition, such enterprises can use the existing Internet service ecosystem to provide more value-added services for humanoid robots, such as online education.
In addition to Xiaomi and other companies that directly deploy humanoid robots, some Internet technology companies have laid out the humanoid robot track in the form of investment, such as Microsoft, OpenAI, Amazon, Samsung and many other companies have participated in investing in the humanoid robot start-up Figure.
Exhibit 1: Overview of key players in the field of humanoid robotics and their product progress in 2024
Data source: public information collation
From the perspective of actual commercialization progress, humanoid robots of many enterprises have first achieved initial application in industrial scenarios.
For example, in February 2024, UBTECH released a video of its industrial version of the Walker S humanoid robot conducting "practical training" at the NIO automobile factory, and announced in August that it had reached a strategic cooperation with Geely and Tianqi to jointly promote the application of humanoid robots in the field of intelligent manufacturing of automobiles and parts.
In June 2024, Tesla announced that two second-generation humanoid robots, Optimus, will enter Tesla's factories for battery sorting-related tasks, which are expected to be produced in small batches and used in Tesla factories by 2025, and mass-produced and delivered to customers outside of Tesla by 2026.
However, at present, the mass production of humanoid robots still faces many challenges, of which capital is a key factor, and the cost of developing and manufacturing humanoid robots is still relatively high, and the current research and development cost of a humanoid robot can be between hundreds of thousands of yuan and millions of yuan. Therefore, a number of humanoid robot manufacturers have also reduced financial pressure through financing.
According to Laimi PEVC data, from January to September 2024, there have been 32 financing events (including undisclosed events) for humanoid robots in China, with a total financing amount of more than 3.6 billion yuan. At the same time, the field of humanoid robots shows a certain head effect. For example, Zhiyuan Robot has received a total of 6 rounds of financing since 2023, with a cumulative disclosed financing amount of more than 1.7 billion yuan and a valuation of more than 7 billion yuan. The following table shows the financing events of the humanoid robot track of 100 million yuan or more from January to September 2024, and interested readers can log in to the Rime PEVC platform to obtain the full financing cases, invested projects and in-depth data analysis of the humanoid robot track.
Chart 2: Investment and financing events of Chinese humanoid robots of 100 million yuan or more from January to September 2024
Data source: Let's find data
Humanoid robot market size
The humanoid robot industry has great development potential, and in February 2024, Goldman Sachs predicted that the market size of humanoid robots will reach $37.8 billion in 2035. The key drivers for the humanoid robotics industry are as follows:
(1) Continuous progress in industry technology: AI large model technology plays an important role in the "brain" of humanoid robots, and in the past two years, the rapid iteration of AI large models has improved its autonomous decision-making, multimodal perception, generalization/emergence and other capabilities, which has improved the ability of humanoid robots to understand human language, behavior and environment, and further improved the interaction ability between humanoid robots and humans.
(2) Cost reduction: According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, the unit manufacturing cost of humanoid robots has been declining, and has dropped from $50,000-250,000 in 2022 to $30,000-$150,000, a decrease of about 40%, which helps reduce the cost pressure of mass production of humanoid robots;
(3) Favorable policies: Humanoid robots are an important emerging industry and have been valued by governments around the world. For example, in 2023, China issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", which for the first time put forward systematic guidance for the development of the humanoid robot industry, and clarified the goal and time point of the development of humanoid robots, that is, to achieve mass production by 2025 and form a safe and reliable industrial chain and supply chain system by 2027; In 2023, the United States will introduce the National Artificial Intelligence R&D Strategic Plan, proposing to develop more powerful and reliable robots;
(4) Increased market demand: The aging of the population in many countries around the world has been at a high level. At this stage, Japan, Germany, France, United States, China and other countries have entered an aging society, and in the context of the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, replacing people with robots has gradually become a new trend.
Exhibit 3: Global Humanoid Robot Industry Market Size 2023-2035E (USD USD)
Source: Goldman Sachs
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